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Bitcoin Breaks $50K mark; Are We Out of the Bear đ» â?
In this report, 21Shares walk you through Bitcoin’s journey toward the $50K mark, Ethereum’s upgrade updates, and how a new experimental token standard has led to a surge in on-chain activity. Last but not least, we’ll give you the key takeaways from Solana’s post-mortem report explaining the cause of its five-hour outage.
Bitcoin Breaks the $50K Mark
Last week Bitcoin saw accumulation levels reminiscent of crypto’s bull run in 2021. However, this time around, the accumulation comes with higher accountability and much less noise, thanks to the abscence of bad actors, such as FTX’s former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, along with growing institutional appetite. Bitcoin miners have also become reserved sellers, cutting their daily sales by about 62.5% from November and December, according to CryptoQuant, despite the drop in fees. This could mean that Bitcoin miners are positioning themselves ahead of the Bitcoin halving scheduled in 62 days.
As shown in Figure 1, selling pressure on GBTC has diminished over the past week, leading spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds to step up as the world’s biggest BTC holder with $34.6 billion in assets under management. However, Bitcoin’s path forward is not without challenges. As covered previously, bankrupt FTX and Genesis are anticipated to liquidate their recovered assets to compensate their customers. Aside from the GBTC it sold in January, FTX has $7B in assets ($560M in BTC, as of December 2023) while Genesis is waiting for the court to greenlight its $1.6B in GBTC to liquidate. We may see some selling pressure, potentially impacting medium-term price movements, unless the accumulation of BTC continues.
Figure 1: Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows (YTD)
Source: Bloomberg
Ethereum Nears Final Stage of Dencun Upgrade as New Token Standard Sparks On-Chain Activity Surge
After the third successful rehearsal on testnet on February 7, Ethereum is set to implement the Dencun upgrade on Mainnet on March 17. This upgrade aims to significantly reduce settlement costs for scaling solutions like Arbitrum and Optimism by introducing a new data container, ”Blobs,” which stores data more efficiently while simplifying transaction verification. Anticipated to cut costs for Layer 2 solutions by around 90%, this milestone aligns with Ethereum’s long-term roadmap to enhance transaction throughput and lower gas expenses for users.
That said, the upgrade wasn’t the only source of enthusiasm for Ethereum as a new token standard has surfaced. Dubbed ERC404, the experimental standard integrates attributes from ERC-20 (fungible), like transferability and divisibility for its fractionalized tokens, and ERC-721 (non-fungible) standard for its unique identifier feature to track the underlying NFT. ERC404 has the potential for native fractionalizing of digital assets like collectibles and tokenized real-world assets such as funds and real estate without needing third-party solutions.
However, its use of a minting and burning mechanism has drawn criticism. Buying the tokens involves minting the NFT, while selling them involves selling the NFT to fractionalize the asset’s ownership into smaller transferable units. This process can incur significant costs, unlike a traditional token swap, due to Ethereum’s high fees. This is clear from the rising fees, which have more than doubled on the network in the past two weeks, as depicted in Figure 2 below. Finally, considering ERC404 stands as an unofficial token standard advocated by independent initiatives, lacking endorsement from the foundation—though this could potentially shift in the future—it has not been subjected to comprehensive auditing, thus posing potential vulnerabilities for projects built upon it. Nevertheless, the new trend shows the willingness to continue pushing innovation on top of the largest smart-contract platform, Ethereum, while increasing its revenue.
Figure 2: Ethereum Transaction Fees
Source: The Block
Solana’s Post Mortem
On February 6, Solana experienced a block production halt lasting approximately five hours due to an identified issue termed an ”infinite recompile loop.” The Solana Foundation has since published a post-mortem outlining what went wrong. This bug, previously encountered in a testnet environment nearly 18 months ago, impacted 95% of validators and halted the finalization of transactions. In essence, The glitch was related to how the blockchain remembers and uses certain pieces of code, causing it to get stuck in a loop and stop processing transactions. Solana developers worked quickly to fix the problem by updating the system and restarting it from a safe point.
They solved the immediate issue by making sure the glitch couldn’t happen again, with plans to make more improvements later. Finally, while Solana experienced outages in the past, its historical price performance indicates that its investors are becoming increasingly immune to such technical issues over time, as shown below in Figure 3. The network’s AuM also surged to an 18-month high, increasing by 11% week-over-week since the incident to reach $1.86B, exemplifying the users’ unfazed confidence in the network.
Figure 3: Solana’s historical performance following five of its previous outages
Source: Blockworks
This Week’s Calendar
Source: 21Shares, Forex Factory
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
Stablecoins are digital currencies tied to assets like the U.S. dollar, offering the price stability needed for payments. They maintain their peg by being backed 1:1 by their underlying fiat currency, with issuers holding equivalent amounts in cash and cash equivalents, making stablecoins a digital representation of those reserves. Their market has doubled to over $235 billion, with daily usage nearly doubling in two years.
Why are stablecoins making headlines now?
Due to their clear product-market fit and growing mainstream adoption, stablecoins have become a top priority for regulation, with both industry leaders and policymakers calling for swift action.
On April 4, the Securities and Exchange Commission’s Division of Corporation Finance finally clarified that stablecoins are not securities if backed one-for-one by USD or similar assets and used for payments or value storage. These “Covered Stablecoins” are not marketed as investments, lack profit incentives, and include protections like reserves, making securities law registration unnecessary for issuance or redemption.
The GENIUS Act, introduced in February and advanced by the U.S. Senate Banking Committee in March, marks a major step toward creating a clear legal framework for stablecoin issuance and oversight. This clarity is driving momentum as Fidelity is set to launch its own stablecoin, and Bank of America is preparing to follow it once legislation is finalized.
Globally, the European Union’s Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) framework has already come into effect, reinforcing a broader shift toward formal integration of stablecoins into traditional finance. These developments reflect a growing consensus that stablecoins are emerging as essential infrastructure for global payments, treasury management, and digital asset adoption.
What are the benefits of stablecoins?
Stablecoins are digital currencies designed for fast, low-cost, and stable transactions. Since their launch in 2014, they’ve become a go-to tool for online payments, especially cross-border transfers. As they’re pegged to stable assets like the U.S. dollar or euro, they avoid the wild price swings seen in other cryptocurrencies.
They’re accessible to anyone with internet, making them especially valuable in regions with high inflation or limited banking access, like Argentina or Turkey.
With some built on public blockchains, stablecoins offer transparency, letting users track transfers and supply in real time. For institutions, they also simplify treasury management by acting as efficient digital cash that can be deployed instantly.
Who are the major players in the stablecoin race?
Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC), the two largest stablecoin issuers, collectively hold over $204 billion in U.S. Treasuries, making them the 14th largest holders globally. Their combined treasury holdings surpass those of entire nations, including Norway and Brazil.
USDT leads with $144 billion in circulation; USDC, backed by Coinbase and known for compliance, has become a trusted digital dollar across global finance.
Why stablecoins matter: A revenue engine for blockchains
Stablecoins generate steady revenue for blockchains like Ethereum and Solana by driving transaction fees with each transfer. With trillions in annual volume, they help sustain network activity beyond speculation.
On Ethereum, for example, USDT and USDC transactions are major contributors to daily gas fees. Year to date, Tether ranks #3 and USDC ranks #5 in terms of total gas consumed. Tether and Circle also dominate daily transaction activity on Ethereum, averaging approximately 12 million and 6 million transactions per day, respectively, making them the top two entities on the network by daily transaction count.
Meanwhile, on Solana, stablecoin activity has surged, helping sustain validator rewards and strengthen protocol economics. In addition to the mainstream utility, stablecoins represent reliable, protocol-level cash flow, making them crypto’s killer use case.
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
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