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Year of Surprise

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2016 has been full of surprises and can be divided into three distinct phases defined by the EU referendum and US election. Year of Surprise

FX Weekly FX 2016 Review – Year of Surprise

Highlights

  • 2016 has been full of surprises and can be divided into three distinct phases defined by the EU referendum and US election.
  • Currently the market is in a period of re-pricing due to Trump’s proposed fiscal expansion plans.
  • The USD looks likely to hold onto recent gains, while the EUR look vulnerable to political uncertainty in the year to come.

Against all odds

Surprises have been commonplace in 2016 and have ensured that volatility has remained a prominent feature of the world’s currency markets. The year can almost be divided into three distinct phases marked around the shock outcomes in both the EU referendum and the US presidential election. In the period up to, and the month following, the Brexit vote, concerns over the economic impact of the referendum and reduced expectations of monetary tightening in the US saw safe havens like the JPY soar against the GBP and USD (rising 26% and 16% respectively from 1st January to the 6th July). These moves moderated somewhat until the US election, where Trump’s shock victory ushered in a complete shift in market assumptions and a corresponding re-pricing of financial assets. This is the current phase that we find ourselves in, characterised by the strongest trade weighted USD in over 14 years and a sharply weakening JPY. Going into 2017, we see healthy prospects for US growth and inflation buoying the USD, while in Europe the single currency risks being pressured by political uncertainty.

Click to enlarge

US reflation?

Markets appear to have interpreted Trump’s victory as a signal that the US will benefit from a large fiscal stimulus and infrastructure package in the years to come, helping to deliver both growth and inflation. While a lot of the details surrounding Trump’s future plan are currently uncertain, what seems clear is that the recent increase in inflation expectations have prompted the US Federal Reserve to pursue a more aggressive rate hike path. Should they follow through with the proposed three hikes in 2017 we see recent gains in the USD as being broadly sustained, although a near term pullback in the next few months may be due.

Populist sentiment tested

In Europe, scheduled parliamentary and presidential elections in a majority of the bloc’s largest nations have potential to test the Euro. Matteo Renzi’s recent resignation is a signal that anti-establishment sentiment on mainland Europe remains elevated and the growth of populist parties is not as remote a risk as market participants once thought. Combined with a European Central Bank (ECB) committed to at least another 12 months of asset purchases, risks for the EUR appear skewed to the downside.

Transitional Brexit deal to be brokered

Prospects for the GBP are centred on the progress of Brexit negotiations and the UK government’s ability to deliver an effective transitional agreement offering protection for Britain’s more exposed sectors, such as finance. We remain bullish on the currency and believe that it is currently trading near its structural nadir (see: GBP reaches rock bottom). However, it will remain volatile as markets scrutinise any plan Theresa May puts forward before the self-imposed March deadline for Article 50.

Investors wishing to express the investment views outlined above may consider using the following ETF Securities ETPs:

Currency ETPs

GBP Base

ETFS Long EUR Short GBP (GBUR)
ETFS Short EUR Long GBP (URGB)
ETFS Long USD Short GBP (GBUS)
ETFS Short USD Long GBP (USGB)

USD Base

ETFS Long GBP Short USD (LGBP)
ETFS Short GBP Long USD (SGBP)
ETFS Long EUR Short USD (LEUR)
ETFS Short EUR Long USD (SEUR)

EUR Base

ETFS Long USD Short EUR (XBJP)
ETFS Short USD Long EUR (XBJQ)
ETFS Long GBP Short EUR (EUGB)
ETFS Short GBP Long EUR (GBEU)

3x

ETFS 3x Long USD Short EUR (EUS3)
ETFS 3x Short USD Long EUR (USE3)
ETFS 3x Long GBP Short EUR (EGB3)
ETFS 3x Short GBP Long EUR (GBE3)
ETFS 3x Long GBP Short USD (LGB3)
ETFS 3x Short GBP Long USD (SGB3)
ETFS 3x Long EUR Short USD (LEU3)
ETFS 3x Short EUR Long USD (SEU3)

ETFS 3x Long USD Short GBP (USP3)
ETFS 3x Short USD Long GBP (PUS3)
ETFS 3x Long EUR Short GBP (EUP3)
ETFS 3x Short EUR Long GBP (SUP3)

5x

ETFS 5x Long GBP Short EUR (EGB5)
ETFS 5x Short GBP Long EUR (GBE5)
ETFS 5x Long USD Short EUR (5CH5)
ETFS 5x Short USD Long EUR (5CH6)
ETFS 5x Long USD Short GBP (USP5)
ETFS 5x Short USD Long GBP (PUS5)

Basket

ETFS Bullish GBP vs G10 Currency Basket Securities (LGBB)
ETFS Bearish GBP vs G10 Currency Basket Securities (SGBB)
ETFS Bullish USD vs G10 Currency Basket Securities (LUSB)
ETFS Bearish USD vs G10 Currency Basket Securities (SUSB)
ETFS Bullish EUR vs G10 Currency Basket Securities (LEUB)
ETFS Bearish EUR vs G10 Currency Basket Securities (SEUB)

The complete ETF Securities product list can be found here.

Important Information

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”). The products discussed in this document are issued by ETFS Foreign Exchange Limited (“FXL”). FXL is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission.

This communication is only targeted at professional investors. In Switzerland, this communication is only targeted at Regulated Qualified Investors.

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SPFT ETF är en global satsning på teknikföretag

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SPDR MSCI World Technology UCITS ETF (SPFT ETF) med ISIN IE00BYTRRD19, strävar efter att spåra MSCI World Information Technology-index. MSCI World Information Technology-index spårar informationsteknologisektorn på de utvecklade marknaderna över hela världen (GICS-sektorklassificering).

SPDR MSCI World Technology UCITS ETF (SPFT ETF) med ISIN IE00BYTRRD19, strävar efter att spåra MSCI World Information Technology-index. MSCI World Information Technology-index spårar informationsteknologisektorn på de utvecklade marknaderna över hela världen (GICS-sektorklassificering).

ETFENs TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,30 % p.a. SPDR MSCI World Technology UCITS ETF är den billigaste ETF som följer MSCI World Information Technology index. ETF:n replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFEn ackumuleras och återinvesteras i ETFEn.

SPDR MSCI World Technology UCITS ETF är en stor ETF med tillgångar på 709 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 29 april 2016 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Fondens mål

Fondens investeringsmål är att följa resultatet för företag inom tekniksektorn, över utvecklade marknader globalt.

Indexbeskrivning

MSCI World Information Technology 35/20 Capped Index mäter utvecklingen för globala aktier som klassificeras som fallande inom tekniksektorn, enligt Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS).

Handla SPFT ETF

SPDR MSCI World Technology UCITS ETF (SPFT ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEURSS47
Bolsa Mexicana de ValoresMXNWTECN
Borsa ItalianaEURWTEC
Euronext AmsterdamEURWTCH
London Stock ExchangeUSDWTEC
London Stock ExchangeGBPTECW
SIX Swiss ExchangeUSDWTEC
XETRAEURSPFT

Största innehav

VärdepapperVikt %
Apple Inc.18,34%
Microsoft Corporation18,34%
NVIDIA Corporation18,09%
Broadcom Inc.4,29%
ASML Holding NV2,39%
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.1,50%
Adobe Inc.1,44%
Salesforce Inc.1,44%
Oracle Corporation1,33%
QUALCOMM Incorporated1,28%

Innehav kan komma att förändras

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Dogecoin in a portfolio: A small 1% allocation has a loud bark!

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Dogecoin has outperformed other major cryptoassets over the past decade, while also exhibiting a low correlation to crypto and traditional assets. This creates a compelling argument for a portfolio allocation. We tested a Bitcoin-enhanced growth portfolio, which is a traditional 60/40 infused with 3% Bitcoin, and we introduced a modest 1% DOGE allocation. Since most prospective investors likely already hold Bitcoin, this offers a lens into how the two assets can complement each other.

Dogecoin has outperformed other major cryptoassets over the past decade, while also exhibiting a low correlation to crypto and traditional assets. This creates a compelling argument for a portfolio allocation. We tested a Bitcoin-enhanced growth portfolio, which is a traditional 60/40 infused with 3% Bitcoin, and we introduced a modest 1% DOGE allocation. Since most prospective investors likely already hold Bitcoin, this offers a lens into how the two assets can complement each other.

Despite the small portfolio allocation, every approach delivered stronger returns. The benchmark returned 7.25% annually, while DOGE-enhanced portfolios reached as high as 8.95%. Sharpe ratios improved in almost all tests, indicating better risk-adjusted returns. Volatility did slightly tick up, but drawdowns remained largely contained. Even with no rebalancing, the max drawdown only deepened by a few percentage points, underscoring that even a 1% DOGE allocation adds meaningful punch without destabilizing the broader portfolio.

Rebalancing remains essential to capturing upside effectively. Without it, returns can plateau while risk quietly compounds. Monthly or weekly rebalancing offered the best balance, maximizing returns while keeping volatility and drawdowns in check, especially during periods of broader market stress, as we’ve recently seen. Given Dogecoin’s momentum-driven nature, a more strategic approach linked to broader crypto market cycles may offer even greater optimization beyond routine rebalancing.

With the right structure, a 1% allocation to Dogecoin isn’t reckless—it’s rewarding.

Bear Case

Despite strong fundamentals and a rich cultural legacy, Dogecoin’s recent rally, fueled by post-election memecoin mania, may have front-run its true cycle potential. As attention shifts to newer narratives, DOGE risks being seen as ’yesterday’s play,’ potentially underperforming even in a rising market. Still, that wouldn’t signal a flaw in its model, just a pause in a fast-rotating cycle.

Assuming a continued 10% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) from its 2021 peak of $0.73, DOGE would be projected to land around $0.38 by 2025—still more than 2x from today’s levels but modest relative to past cycles. More notably, this would mark the first time Dogecoin fails to reach a new all-time high in a full market cycle.

Neutral Case

Dogecoin may not dominate headlines like it did at its peak, but it still holds cultural relevance and widespread recognition. In a scenario where the total crypto market cap peaks at $5 trillion this cycle and DOGE maintains a solid, albeit slightly reduced, market share of 3% instead of its previous 4%, this would result in a market capitalization of approximately $150 billion for DOGE.

At that valuation, DOGE would trade near $1 per coin, a ~5.5x gain from current levels around $0.185. This neutral case assumes Dogecoin retains its stature as the leading memecoin, despite increased competition, with stable adoption and renewed retail interest, but without the same euphoria of the last cycle.

Bull Case

If we take DOGE’s bottom price of $0.007 just before the last bull run began and fast-forward two years to the bottom of the current cycle at $0.0585, that move reflects a CAGR of 189%. If DOGE were to mirror this explosive growth, DOGE would reach approximately $1.42.

In this scenario, Dogecoin benefits from renewed memecoin mania, increasing real-world adoption, and stronger interest fueled by regulatory clarity and potential integration with major platforms like Elon Musk’s X. A full return of retail enthusiasm and broad cultural momentum could reestablish DOGE as the breakout asset of the cycle, potentially even doubling its all-time high.

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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VBTC ETN spårar priset på kryptovalutan Bitcoin

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VanEck Bitcoin ETN (VBTC ETN) med ISIN DE000A28M8D0, spårar värdet på kryptovalutan Bitcoin. Den börshandlade produktens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 1,00 % p.a. Denna ETN replikerar resultatet av det underliggande indexet med en skuldförbindelse med säkerheter som backas upp av fysiska innehav av kryptovalutan.

VanEck Bitcoin ETN (VBTC ETN) med ISIN DE000A28M8D0, spårar värdet på kryptovalutan Bitcoin. Den börshandlade produktens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 1,00 % p.a. Denna ETN replikerar resultatet av det underliggande indexet med en skuldförbindelse med säkerheter som backas upp av fysiska innehav av kryptovalutan.

VanEck Bitcoin ETN är en stor ETN med 568 miljoner euro tillgångar under förvaltning. Denna ETN lanserades den 19 november 2020 och har sin hemvist i Liechtenstein.

Produktbeskrivning

Kombinera spänningen med bitcoin med enkelheten och säkerheten hos traditionell finans. Bitcoin är den äldsta kryptovalutan, med det största börsvärdet. Det ses ofta som digitalt guld, ett digitalt värdelager i en tid av osäkerhet. VanEck Bitcoin ETN är en fullständigt säkerställd börshandlad sedel som investerar i bitcoin.

  • 100 % uppbackad av bitcoin (BTC)
  • Förvaras hos en reglerad kryptodepå, med kryptoförsäkring (upp till ett begränsat belopp)
  • Kan handlas som en ETF på reglerade börser (om än inom ett annat segment)

Huvudriskfaktorer

Volatilitetsrisk: Handelspriserna för många digitala tillgångar har upplevt extrem volatilitet under de senaste perioderna och kan mycket väl fortsätta att göra det. Digitala tillgångar har bara introducerats under det senaste decenniet och klarhet i regelverket är fortfarande svårfångad i många jurisdiktioner.

Valutarisk, teknikrisk, juridiska och regulatoriska risker. Du kan förlora pengar genom att investera i fonderna. Värdet på investeringarna kan gå upp eller ner och investeraren kanske inte får tillbaka det investerade beloppet.

Underliggande index

MarketVector Bitcoin VWAP Close Index (MVBTCV Index).

Handla VBTC ETN

VanEck Bitcoin ETN (VBTC ETN) är en europeisk börshandlad kryptovaluta. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och Euronext Amsterdam.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETP genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel  Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
Euronext AmsterdamUSDVBTC
Euronext ParisEURVBTC
XETRAEURVBTC
gettexEURVBTC
SIX Swiss ExchangeCHFVBTC

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