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The Trump reflation trade prompts outflows in gold and emerging market debt

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ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis - The Trump reflation trade prompts outflows in gold and emerging market debt

ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – The Trump reflation trade prompts outflows in gold and emerging market debt

Highlights

  • Gold ETPs saw outflows of US$83m, the largest in a week in 2016.
  • In reaction to the Trump reflation trade we saw the first significant outflows of the year from Emerging Market Debt ETPs totalling US$55m.
  • Oil ETPs saw further inflows last week totalling US$49m, bringing the total inflow in the last four weeks to almost US$258 as investors punt on a deal being brokered at the OPEC meeting.

Gold ETPs saw outflows of US$83m, the largest in a week in 2016. We saw similar behaviour earlier this year when investors were expecting an imminent rate hike in the upcoming FED meetings. This time round though its the highest probability all year, with a 94% chance of a rate hike according to the futures market. This year gold flows have been predominantly inflows with only 28% of daily flows being remittances. Furthermore, whilst gold short ETPs inflows increase in-line with inflows from the period from 2007 to 2012, this year we have only seen net inflows US$87k suggesting that despite gold’s recent weakness, investors want to maintain their existing holdings, the prospects of rising inflation and political instability are likely reasons. We are also seeing a significant divergence in regional flows, flows from investors who are based in the US, and therefore USD based, have pulled out of gold at a much greater rate than their Europe based counterparts. This is likely due to the recent strength of the USD giving non-USD currency investors in gold a lift from the currency despite weakness in the underlying.

In reaction to the Trump reflation trade we saw the first significant outflows of the year from Emerging Market Debt ETPs totalling US$55m. The yield differential between EM local debt and the European yields is at a multi-year high (over 5%). We maintain our view that EM countries have a stronger credit standing than what is commonly perceived, leaving room for further upside to price. In our opinion, any technical selloff represents a good opportunity to enter EM debt. Oil

ETPs saw further inflows last week totalling US$49m, bringing the total inflow in the last four weeks to almost US$258m as investors punt of a deal being brokered at the OPEC meeting on the 30th November. We believe OPEC’s ability to broker a supply cut is fading. A flurry of meetings between both OPEC and non- OPEC countries have taken place, but have so far produced little positive results. Growing scepticism about OPEC’s ability to cut production has led to short positions rising 56% in WTI and 39% in the past month. OPEC’s commitment is contingent on the participation of non-OPEC countries, but with large non-OPEC members like Russia, Kazakhstan and Brazil seeing new production come online as a result of past capital expenditure from several years ago, the likelihood of a concrete commitment is looking slim. We expect to see oil prices remain volatile in the run-up to OPEC’s November 30th meeting.

What to watch this week. With the market pricing the December rate hike odds to a near certainty, investors won’t be paying as much attention to the minutes of the Fed’s meeting on Wednesday. While the release of the Autumn statement on fiscal and economic policy in the UK on Wednesday will take centre stage.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the ”FCA”).

This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors.

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WEL8 ETF är en satsning på globala finansföretag

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Amundi S&P Global Financials ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) (WEL8 ETF) med ISIN IE000ENYES77, försöker följa S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Financials-index. S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Financials-index spårar stora och medelstora företag från finanssektorn. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning).

Amundi S&P Global Financials ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) (WEL8 ETF) med ISIN IE000ENYES77, försöker följa S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Financials-index. S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Financials-index spårar stora och medelstora företag från finanssektorn. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning).

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,18 % p.a. Amundi S&P Global Financials ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) är den billigaste ETF som följer S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Financials index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (Årligen).

Amundi S&P Global Financials ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 2 miljoner euro under förvaltning. ETFen lanserades den 20 september 2022 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Investeringsmål

AMUNDI S&P GLOBAL FINANCIALS ESG UCITS ETF DR – EUR (D) försöker replikera, så nära som möjligt, resultatet av S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Financials Index (Netto Total return index). Denna ETF har exponering mot stora och medelstora företag i utvecklade länder. Den innehåller uteslutningskriterier för tobak, kontroversiella vapen, civila och militära handeldvapen, termiskt kol, olja och gas (inkl. Arctic Oil & Gas), oljesand, skiffergas. Den är också utformad för att välja ut och omvikta företag för att tillsammans förbättra hållbarhet och ESG-profiler, uppfylla miljömål och minska koldioxidavtrycket.

Handla WEL8 ETF

Amundi S&P Global Financials ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) (WEL8 ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEURWELY
XETRAUSDWEL8
XETRAEURWELY

Största innehav

Denna fond använder fysisk replikering för att spåra indexets prestanda.

NamnValutaVikt %Sektor
JPMORGAN CHASE & COUSD6.31 %Finans
VISA INC-CLASS A SHARESUSD5.15 %Finans
MASTERCARD INC-CL AUSD4.41 %Finans
BANK OF AMERICA CORPUSD3.18 %Finans
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIAAUD1.86 %Finans
S&P GLOBAL INCUSD1.85 %Finans
HSBC HLDGING PLC GBPGBP1.82 %Finans
ROYAL BANK OF CANADA CADCAD1.78 %Finans
MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUPJPY1.61 %Finans
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCUSD1.57 %Finans

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Tariffs spark turmoil: BTC holds its ground

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President Trump announced a highly aggressive tariff package—one with broad macroeconomic implications—and global markets reacted sharply. In this environment of heightened volatility, we urge investors to maintain perspective, just as they should when prices are volatile to the upside (e.g., last year’s post-election rally).

President Trump announced a highly aggressive tariff package—one with broad macroeconomic implications—and global markets reacted sharply. In this environment of heightened volatility, we urge investors to maintain perspective, just as they should when prices are volatile to the upside (e.g., last year’s post-election rally).

Notably, since the election, bitcoin and the Nasdaq Crypto Index have outperformed gold, the S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100. Even in the wake of the tariffs, only gold has outpaced bitcoin and the NCI—highlighting the relative strength of digital assets amid global market declines.

Market Highlights

Stablecoin legislation advances in US

The House Financial Services Committee voted to advance a monumental bill to regulate stablecoins, the STABLE Act, following the Senate Banking Committee approval of similar legislation earlier this year.

President Trump has said he wants stablecoin legislation approved by Congress before its August recess, reinforcing the new administration’s focus on establishing clear crypto regulation.

Tokenized fund sets dividend benchmark

BlackRock’s BUIDL paid an estimated $4.17 million in monthly dividends during March.

This highlights the potential of crypto to create attractive investment instruments, such as tokenized funds, which stood out this month paying massive dividends and setting a new benchmark for the class.

SEC chair orders review of crypto guidance

Acting SEC Chair Mark T. Uyeda ordered a review of past staff guidance on crypto, including risk warnings and interpretations of the Howey test.

This move, like others before, signals a broader shift toward a more open regulatory approach, potentially strengthening the presence of bitcoin and other digital assets in the US in the near future.

Market Metrics

The NCITM constituents had another negative week, with only XRP (-7.0%) and BTC (-3.8%) avoiding double-digit losses. The overall NCITM decline of -5.2% was cushioned by BTC’s relative resilience, as it performed better as a store-of-value asset. However, the drop still reflects a broader risk-off sentiment across all markets, driven by Trump’s tariff policies and growing macroeconomic uncertainties that are prompting investors to reassess their positions.

This week, the NCITM fell -5.3%, narrowing the gap with traditional indices such as the Nasdaq 100 (-9.8%) and S&P 500 (-9.1%) which experienced sharper losses following Trump’s tariff announcements. BTC (-3.8%) performed similarly to gold (-3.3%), though gold remains the top-performing asset class year-to-date. The week reinforced the risk-off sentiment, with investors broadly retreating from risk assets. Still, it also highlighted crypto’s growing relevance, as the most volatile asset class managed to outperform traditional markets in a stressed environment.

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JMES ETF en aktivt förvaltad fond från JPMorgan

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JPMorgan Global Emerging Markets Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned Active UCITS ETF USD (acc) (JMES ETF) med ISIN IE000ANHU3J3, är en aktivt förvaltad börshandlad fond.

JPMorgan Global Emerging Markets Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned Active UCITS ETF USD (acc) (JMES ETF) med ISIN IE000ANHU3J3, är en aktivt förvaltad börshandlad fond.

JP Morgan Global Emerging Markets Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned Active Strategy investerar i företag från tillväxtmarknader. ETF strävar efter att generera en högre avkastning än MSCI Emerging Markets SRI EU PAB Overlay ESG Custom-index. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning). Dessutom beaktas EUs direktiv om klimatskydd.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,30 % p.a. Utdelningarna i ETF:n ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

JPMorgan Global Emerging Markets Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned Active UCITS ETF USD (acc) är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 2 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 5 mars 2025 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Investeringsmål

Delfondens mål är att uppnå en långsiktig avkastning som överstiger MSCI Emerging Markets SRI EU PAB Overlay ESG Custom Index* (”riktmärket”) genom att aktivt investera i huvudsak i en portfölj av tillväxtmarknadsföretag, samtidigt som målen i Parisavtalet är i linje.

Handla JMES ETF

JPMorgan Global Emerging Markets Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned Active UCITS ETF USD (acc) (JMES ETF)

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel  Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEURJMES
Borsa ItalianaEURJSEM
London Stock ExchangeGBXJSME
London Stock ExchangeUSDJSEM
SIX Swiss ExchangeUSDJSEM
XETRAEURJMES

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