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Stimulus helps global economic outlook
Commodity ETP Weekly – Stimulus helps global economic outlook
• Diversified commodity exposures see month long inflows.
• Agricultural ETP inflows reach 7-week high.
• Seventh consecutive weekly inflow into energy ETPs, led by crude.
• Gold inflows top sector as central banks remain in stimulus mode.
• Upcoming webinar: Commodities – Is the Outlook Changing?
Central banks from Europe to China are keeping the stimulus taps flowing alongside modest but encouraging signs of global recovery. While Chinese growth dipped under 7% for the first time since 2009, Chinese authorities remain ready to provide support and have the balance sheet to match. Alongside indications of resilient global activity commodity demand is likely to be supported as we head into year-end. In turn, sentiment towards commodities appears to be turning with investors increasing exposure to long diversified commodity ETPs. While the stronger US Dollar is likely to cap commodity gains in the near-term, particularly for precious metals, foreign investors are benefiting from weaker local currencies.
Diversified commodity exposures see month long inflows. ETPs with a diversified exposure to the commodities market as a whole have experienced a month-long run of inflows, totalling US$52mn over the period. The trend signifies that investor sentiment appears to be turning for commodities, the worst performing sector over the past four years. Investors are also increasing exposure to basket ETPs in each sector, with ETFS Agriculture (AIGA), ETFS Industrial metals (AIGI) and ETFS Energy (AIGE) all receiving inflows last week.
Agricultural ETP inflows reach 7-week high. ETFS Agriculture (AIGA) received the highest inflows in 10 weeks. AGRI inflows totalling US$5.7mn topped the agricultural sector, closely followed by the US$5.1mn inflows into coffee ETPs. Coffee inflows reached a 16-week high, as a plunge in coffee prices has attracted bargainhunters to the commodity. Overdue rainfall in Brazil sent prices over 10% lower last week, as expectations for a better crop rose.
Seventh consecutive weekly inflow into energy ETPs, led by crude. The energy sector has experienced one week of outflows over the past four months, with inflows totalling over US$550mn since late July. Oil prices declined last week, after the Energy Information Administration reported a large jump in inventory levels, more than double market expectations. Both WTI and Brent crude have dropped by over 10% since the recent early October peak. While this was the fourth consecutive weekly stock build, rig counts have been falling for the past eight weeks, giving investors’ confidence that the oil price is forming a bottom. Moreover, demand, particularly from China is seemingly robust, offsetting some concern of a sharp slowdown in the world’s second largest economy.
Gold inflows top sector as central banks remain in stimulus mode. The gold price has remained relatively resilient last week, retaining its gains over the past month as lingering concern stemming from recently softer global economic data is coupled with an increasing desire by central banks to be proactive in terms of monetary support. The European central bank appears keen to do more to offset what it sees as ‘downside risks’ to the economy, and additional stimulus raises the potential for further currency debasement, a supportive influence for monetary metals, particularly gold.
Key events to watch this week. After China and the ECB set the stage for greater central bank accommodation, such trends are likely to be positive for metals demand, particularly precious metals. Nevertheless, precious metals gains are likely to be capped, with the US Dollar strengthening after the ECB meeting last week. This week’s FOMC meeting will give clarity on future policy direction, and while we expect the FOMC to hike rates this year, it is unlikely to be this week.
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ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
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Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
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Mar.25 crypto update, Research commentary on market turmoil, CIO Notes and ETP performance attribution
A – Research commentaries from last week developments
- Markets reacted to Trump tariffs – Bitcoin stands
Global markets fell sharply after President Trump’s new 25% tariffs on Chinese imports. Stocks led the decline – the Nasdaq 100 is now down -14% since the election, and the S&P 500 -12.3%. Crypto reacted too, but not uniformly:
• Altcoins such as SOL and ETH were hit hardest (down over 30% since November)
• Bitcoin and the Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) showed resilience, gaining +14.3% and +9.3%, respectively since Election
This kind of selloff tends to erase diversification — everything moves together. But it’s essential to take a longer view:
• Since Trump’s election, only three assets have consistently outperformed: Bitcoin, NCI, and gold.
• Last week, only gold outpaced BTC, confirming the role of digital assets as a strategic long-term allocation — even in volatile regimes.
- Regulatory tailwinds are building
The next phase of crypto decoupling could come from policy. In the US, the signals are turning positive:
• The STABLE Act advanced in Congress, with Trump urging swift approval
• A tokenized fund paid $4.17M in dividends last month, proving blockchain’s real-world income potential
• The SEC has launched a review of past crypto guidance — a move toward clearer rules and broader institutional comfort
Bottom line: In a week where most assets fell, crypto stood out. That’s not a coincidence — it’s a signal.
B – CIO Monthly Notes – Crypto’s Political Tailwinds Are Blowing Hard
• Following a week in Washington, our CIO outlines how crypto is gaining bipartisan traction in DC.
• Key takeaway: regulatory clarity is coming faster than expected, and institutions are taking note.
C – March 2025 ETP performance overview
As of 31/03/25 – Source: Hashdex and Bloomberg. Performances in USD.
Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HASH / HDX1) : March: -4.5% | YTD: -19%
Key drivers in March: Bitcoin and Ethereum
March Performance Attribution:
Hashdex Crypto Momentum Factor ETP (HAMO / HDXM): March: -8.5% | YTD: -22%
Key drivers in March: Litecoin, Ethereum and Solana
March Performance Attribution:
Hashdex Multi-Crypto Index ETPs
Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HASH)
• Broad exposure to BTC, ETH, and major altcoins (SOL, XRP, ADA, etc)
• Quarterly rebalancing – evolutive, market cap-based allocation with no caps (weights and number of constituents)
• Largest crypto index ETP in Europe (+$300m AUM)
• ISIN: CH1184151731 | Tickers: HASH (SIX, Euronext) / HDX1 (Xetra)
• Tradable in USD, EUR, CHF, GBP
• Factsheet / Product page / Index Methodology
Hashdex Crypto Momentum Factor ETP (HAMO/HDXM )
• Momentum-based strategy with monthly rebalancing
• Designed to capture trends across large-cap crypto assets
• ISIN: CH1218734544 | Tickers: HAMO (SIX, Euronext) / HDXM (Xetra)
• Tradable in USD, EUR, CHF, GBP
• Factsheet / Product page / Index Methodology
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