ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Silver to play catch-up as investors begin to embrace industrial metals

• Largest silver inflows in seven weeks indicates investors looking for it to play catch-up to gold.
• Oil outlook uncertainty sees crude ETPs withdrawals for the first time since late May.
• Copper ETPs lead the industrial metals sector with the largest inflows in 16 weeks.
• Profit taking in wheat drives outflows to two-year high, totalling US$23mn.

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Investors look for silver to play catch-up with other precious metals, with largest inflows in seven weeks. Silver has been the laggard in the precious metals sector in 2017, down nearly 3% for the year, with platinum the only other metal in the red over the period. The poor performance underscores how industrial demand has not, as yet, been in evidence. COMEX stockpiles of silver have reached the highest level since April 1995. Meanwhile, rising real yields are keeping downwards pressure on gold and with investors increasingly embracing a risk on mind-set, silver has underperformed, pushing the gold:silver ratio to 76 times (a higher ratio suggests silver is cheaper relative to gold) – the highest level in 15 months. After the largest inflows in seven weeks, totalling US$34.9mn, investors are anticipating the downward trend to reverse.

Oil outlook uncertain as investors withdraw funds from crude ETPs for the first time since late May. Despite a surprisingly large drawdown in US crude stockpiles, investors continue to question the ability for the oil market to become more balanced in 2017. After a brief rally following the 6.2mn barrel stock drawdown, oil prices once again succumbed to pessimistic sentiment. US oil stockpiles remain elevated (6% off the record levels seen in late March) and are undermining OPEC efforts to reduce supply in the face of sluggish demand. As a result, oil ETPs experienced outflows for the first time in six weeks, totalling US$18.8mn.

Copper ETPs lead the industrial metals sector with the largest inflows in 16 weeks, totalling US$19.9mn. Although copper ETPs have received inflows for eight consecutive weeks, the optimism in the sector belies the fact that underlying demand remains subdued: global stockpiles have risen in the past week and remain elevated but off multiyear highs reached in February 2017. However, another deficit is forecast for 2017 and with the International Copper Study Group predicting strengthening demand, prices are expected to resume the 2017 rally.

Profit taking in wheat drives outflows to two-year high, totalling US$23mn. The third consecutive week of outflows from wheat ETPs indicates that optimism over the sustainability of the recent wheat rally is fading rapidly. Wheat prices have been surging as drought conditions increase concern about the size of the harvest in the US. However, the crop problems are likely to largely impact spring wheat crop, and winter wheat prices could suffer as the current weather conditions have not had as much impact on crop quality.

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