Hector McNeil, Co-Founder and Co-CEO of HANetf: The much-anticipated approval of a spot price Bitcoin ETF by the US Securities and Exchange Commission is without a doubt one of the major landmark moments since the birth of Bitcoin. As we saw in the run up to the approval, investor excitement about the approval helped push Bitcoin out of its 2022-induced slump, with the price of a coin once more reaching $47,000.
At the same time, digital asset ETPs available in Europe saw dramatic inflows in 2023. In total, the entire range of cryptocurrency ETCs from ETC Group saw $426million in inflows over the course of the year. Among those, ETC Group Physical Bitcoin (BTCE) saw an AUM increase of 351.12% and ETC Group Physical Ethereum (ZETH) 86.6% in 2023.
The then-still-anticipated approval by the SEC helped boost the price of Bitcoin for several reasons. The first was the expectation that ETFs will unlock a new wave of investor demand. Many US investors have been reluctant to use typical cryptocurrency trading venues, given some of high-profile scandals in the space. A spot price Bitcoin ETF gives a potentially huge number of US investors with a way to access Bitcoin now directly. The creation of Bitcoin ETCs in Europe, such as BTCE, directed several billions of dollars among European investors. A US Bitcoin ETF has the ability to gather even more investor money looking for spot price exposure to Bitcoin, consider the bigger pool of money among both professional and retail investors in the US compared to Europe.
We can consider the SEC approval in a similar vein to the creation of gold ETCs in the early 2000s, which both myself and HANetf co-founder Nik Bienkowski had close involvement with. If you read investment literature from before the creation of the first gold ETC, you will see gold often touted as an asset class to consider, adding diversification to a portfolio. But how to gain exposure was always an issue. Investors could opt for exposure to gold miners, but that brought potential equity risk. Or, investors could opt for physical bullion, bringing with it custody risk. Storing gold bars in your garage is not ideal. But, with the creation of the first gold ETC, investors finally had an easy way to invest directly in gold. It is similar for US investors with Bitcoin. Investors have had the option of a futures-based ETF, approved in 2021 – but that added performance drag through roll yield. Or they could use some of the online cryptocurrency trading venues to directly buy bitcoin, with the introduction of a digital-based custody risk. But with the SEC approval, a spot price ETF has become an option.
But beyond simply unlocking new money for Bitcoin, SEC approval adds a new layer of acceptability to the currency. It is interesting to consider that it was the filing from BlackRock for a Bitcoin ETF that saw optimism around the prospect really pick up. That was because BlackRock is seen as the most mainstream of mainstream asset managers. By filing for a Bitcoin ETF, it showed showed that cryptocurrencies themselves are increasingly being considered a mainstream asset class.
Of course, the issue remains for UK investors. For several years, investors in Europe have been able to invest in Bitcoin thought ETCs such as BTCE, listed on several European stock exchanges. Now US investors can invest in Bitcoin through an ETF, following the SEC ruling. But the UK’s regulator still blocks UK investor access.
There are, however, proxy ways to gain exposure to Bitcoin. For example, the ETC Group Digital Assets and Blockchain Equity UCITS ETF (KOIN) offers exposure to companies within the crypto and blockchain ecosystem, whose fortunes are intricately tied to the performance of Bitcoin itself. A key indicator of KOIN’s alignment with Bitcoin is its correlation. In December 2023, KOIN exhibited a correlation of around 0.7 with Bitcoin, highlighting its potential as a proxy for the digital gold. This means that as Bitcoin prices move, so do the fortunes of KOIN, providing investors with a strategic avenue to participate in the crypto market.
Another option is the Grayscale Future of Finance UCITS ETF (GFOF), which aims to provide exposure to the companies that are, and could be, building the future of finance and digital payment systems. This encompasses everything from payment platforms, to exchanges, to miners, to asset management, and blockchain technology.
GFOF could be well placed to capture growth in the digital assets space, driven by the potential approval of a US Bitcoin ETF. As digital assets move increasingly into the mainstream, the infrastructure for transactions and asset management will need to expand.
SPDR MSCI World Technology UCITSETF (SPFT ETF) med ISIN IE00BYTRRD19, strävar efter att spåra MSCI World Information Technology-index. MSCI World Information Technology-index spårar informationsteknologisektorn på de utvecklade marknaderna över hela världen (GICS-sektorklassificering).
ETFENs TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,30 % p.a. SPDR MSCI World Technology UCITSETF är den billigaste ETF som följer MSCI World Information Technology index. ETF:n replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFEn ackumuleras och återinvesteras i ETFEn.
SPDR MSCI World Technology UCITSETFär en stor ETF med tillgångar på 709 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 29 april 2016 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Fondens mål
Fondens investeringsmål är att följa resultatet för företag inom tekniksektorn, över utvecklade marknader globalt.
Indexbeskrivning
MSCI World Information Technology 35/20 Capped Index mäter utvecklingen för globala aktier som klassificeras som fallande inom tekniksektorn, enligt Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS).
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.
Dogecoin has outperformed other major cryptoassets over the past decade, while also exhibiting a low correlation to crypto and traditional assets. This creates a compelling argument for a portfolio allocation. We tested a Bitcoin-enhanced growth portfolio, which is a traditional 60/40 infused with 3% Bitcoin, and we introduced a modest 1% DOGE allocation. Since most prospective investors likely already hold Bitcoin, this offers a lens into how the two assets can complement each other.
Despite the small portfolio allocation, every approach delivered stronger returns. The benchmark returned 7.25% annually, while DOGE-enhanced portfolios reached as high as 8.95%. Sharpe ratios improved in almost all tests, indicating better risk-adjusted returns. Volatility did slightly tick up, but drawdowns remained largely contained. Even with no rebalancing, the max drawdown only deepened by a few percentage points, underscoring that even a 1% DOGE allocation adds meaningful punch without destabilizing the broader portfolio.
Rebalancing remains essential to capturing upside effectively. Without it, returns can plateau while risk quietly compounds. Monthly or weekly rebalancing offered the best balance, maximizing returns while keeping volatility and drawdowns in check, especially during periods of broader market stress, as we’ve recently seen. Given Dogecoin’s momentum-driven nature, a more strategic approach linked to broader crypto market cycles may offer even greater optimization beyond routine rebalancing.
With the right structure, a 1% allocation to Dogecoin isn’t reckless—it’s rewarding.
Bear Case
Despite strong fundamentals and a rich cultural legacy, Dogecoin’s recent rally, fueled by post-election memecoin mania, may have front-run its true cycle potential. As attention shifts to newer narratives, DOGE risks being seen as ’yesterday’s play,’ potentially underperforming even in a rising market. Still, that wouldn’t signal a flaw in its model, just a pause in a fast-rotating cycle.
Assuming a continued 10% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) from its 2021 peak of $0.73, DOGE would be projected to land around $0.38 by 2025—still more than 2x from today’s levels but modest relative to past cycles. More notably, this would mark the first time Dogecoin fails to reach a new all-time high in a full market cycle.
Neutral Case
Dogecoin may not dominate headlines like it did at its peak, but it still holds cultural relevance and widespread recognition. In a scenario where the total crypto market cap peaks at $5 trillion this cycle and DOGE maintains a solid, albeit slightly reduced, market share of 3% instead of its previous 4%, this would result in a market capitalization of approximately $150 billion for DOGE.
At that valuation, DOGE would trade near $1 per coin, a ~5.5x gain from current levels around $0.185. This neutral case assumes Dogecoin retains its stature as the leading memecoin, despite increased competition, with stable adoption and renewed retail interest, but without the same euphoria of the last cycle.
Bull Case
If we take DOGE’s bottom price of $0.007 just before the last bull run began and fast-forward two years to the bottom of the current cycle at $0.0585, that move reflects a CAGR of 189%. If DOGE were to mirror this explosive growth, DOGE would reach approximately $1.42.
In this scenario, Dogecoin benefits from renewed memecoin mania, increasing real-world adoption, and stronger interest fueled by regulatory clarity and potential integration with major platforms like Elon Musk’s X. A full return of retail enthusiasm and broad cultural momentum could reestablish DOGE as the breakout asset of the cycle, potentially even doubling its all-time high.
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
VanEck Bitcoin ETN (VBTC ETN) med ISIN DE000A28M8D0, spårar värdet på kryptovalutan Bitcoin. Den börshandlade produktens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 1,00 % p.a. Denna ETN replikerar resultatet av det underliggande indexet med en skuldförbindelse med säkerheter som backas upp av fysiska innehav av kryptovalutan.
VanEck Bitcoin ETN är en stor ETN med 568 miljoner euro tillgångar under förvaltning. Denna ETN lanserades den 19 november 2020 och har sin hemvist i Liechtenstein.
Produktbeskrivning
Kombinera spänningen med bitcoin med enkelheten och säkerheten hos traditionell finans. Bitcoin är den äldsta kryptovalutan, med det största börsvärdet. Det ses ofta som digitalt guld, ett digitalt värdelager i en tid av osäkerhet. VanEck Bitcoin ETN är en fullständigt säkerställd börshandlad sedel som investerar i bitcoin.
100 % uppbackad av bitcoin (BTC)
Förvaras hos en reglerad kryptodepå, med kryptoförsäkring (upp till ett begränsat belopp)
Kan handlas som en ETF på reglerade börser (om än inom ett annat segment)
Huvudriskfaktorer
Volatilitetsrisk: Handelspriserna för många digitala tillgångar har upplevt extrem volatilitet under de senaste perioderna och kan mycket väl fortsätta att göra det. Digitala tillgångar har bara introducerats under det senaste decenniet och klarhet i regelverket är fortfarande svårfångad i många jurisdiktioner.
Valutarisk, teknikrisk, juridiska och regulatoriska risker. Du kan förlora pengar genom att investera i fonderna. Värdet på investeringarna kan gå upp eller ner och investeraren kanske inte får tillbaka det investerade beloppet.
Underliggande index
MarketVector Bitcoin VWAP Close Index (MVBTCV Index).
Handla VBTC ETN
VanEck Bitcoin ETN (VBTC ETN) är en europeisk börshandlad kryptovaluta. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och Euronext Amsterdam.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETP genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.