ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Safe havens gain traction as trade war escalates
Highlights
Safe haven demand drives US$23.9mn into long gold ETPs and US$28.1mn into long silver ETPs.
Geopolitical risk led to US$21mn outflows from industrial metals basket.
Long crude oilETP inflows reach a seven-week high of US$20.6mn.
Trade wars escalate. When we first reported on the US tariffs, the Chinese retaliation was very limited, but we noted that it did not preclude further action. Last week we saw China announce a 25% tariff on 106 US goods targeting roughly US$50bn of imports (based on 2017 trade), matching the US’s target of US$50bn of Chinese imports into US. The tit-for-tat trade war has started. US President Trump then threatened a further set of tariffs on US$100bn of Chinese imports. This does not bode well for cyclical assets. Trade wars rarely end up with anyone as a winner. White House’s National Economic Council Director, Larry Kudlow’s, efforts to assuage markets worked temporarily, but lacked credibility after Trump made his recent treats. China said it will counter US protectionism “to the end and at any cost” after Trump’s threats, leaving little room to diffuse the impasse.
Safe haven demand drove US$23.9mn into long gold ETPs, US$28.1mn into long silver ETPs and US$6.9mn into broad precious metal basket ETPs. Inflows into gold have been over US$20mn for three weeks running as safe havens appear to be back in demand. In the past ten weeks there has only been one week of outflows from silver (a minor $2.6mn). In fact over the past (trailing) month, we have seen the highest inflows into silver since June 2017. Inflows into silver ETPs come as a sharp contrast to the investor sentiment in the silver futures market where net positioning is at its most negative ever. The escalation of a trade war adds to the political uncertainty following the hiring a Iran/North Korea policy hawk two weeks ago. With China being such an important broker of diplomacy between in the US and North Korea, antagonising the country appears risky a month before a potential meeting between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. While gold prices have not appreciated meaningfully yet, the rising geopolitical risks could send its price substantially higher. Investors seem to be positioning in safe havens as a hedge against adverse outcomes. Friday’s worse-than-expected labour market report provided a tail-wind for gold as it reduces the need for the Federal Reserve to be hawkish.
Geopolitical risk led to US$21mn outflows from industrial metals baskets. Outflows from industrial metals reached an eight-week high. Cyclicals are likely to perform badly if global economic growth takes a hit from rising protectionism.
Long crude oilETP inflows reach a seven-week high of US$20.6mn. As crude oil prices fell 3.1% last week, investors bought long crude ETPs and took profits on their short oil ETP positions (US$3.3mn). While investors were bargain-hunting, we think that better entry points could open up. At current prices, we expect US production of oil to continue to rise. In its May meeting we expect OPEC to begin discussing how to taper off its current production curbs in 2019. The treat of a trade war should also weigh on oil prices if global demand is dented. Demand expectations from International Energy Agency already look too optimistic. It is a hard to imagine demand continuing to grow at the pace we saw last year at higher prices.
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iShares S&P 500 3% CappedUCITSETF investerar i de 500 största amerikanska företagen från de ledande branscherna i den amerikanska ekonomin, där inget enskilt företag står för mer än 3 procent av indexviktningen.
Franklin S&P 500 Screened UCITSETF investerar i de nuvarande 408 största amerikanska företagen i S&P 500-indexet som anses vara miljömedvetna och socialt ansvarsfulla. Viktningen av företag justeras baserat på deras S&P Global ESG-poäng för att uppnå ett bättre totalt ESG-poäng än huvudindexet.
Franklin S&P World Screened UCITSETF investerar i stora och medelstora företag från 24 utvecklade länder världen över som anses vara miljömedvetna och socialt ansvarsfulla. Viktningen av företag justeras baserat på deras S&P Global ESG-poäng för att uppnå ett bättre totalt ESG-poäng än S&P World Index.
Produktutbudet inom Deutsche Börses ETF- och ETP-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 404 ETFer, 198 ETCer och 256 ETNer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på mer än 21 miljarder euro är Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer och ETPer i Europa.
Invesco BulletShares 2028 EUR Corporate Bond UCITSETF EUR Dis (BE28 ETF) med ISIN IE000LKGEZQ6, försöker följa Bloomberg 2028 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened-index. Bloomberg 2028 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index följer företagsobligationer denominerade i EUR. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2028) i indexet. Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade. Löptid: december 2028 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,10 % p.a.. Invesco BulletShares 2028 EUR Corporate Bond UCITSETF EUR Dis är den billigaste ETF som följer Bloomberg 2028 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened index. ETFen replikerar resultatet för det underliggande indexet genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Ränteintäkterna (kuponger) i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (kvartalsvis).
Invesco BulletShares 2028 EUR Corporate Bond UCITSETF EUR Dis är en mycket liten ETF med 1 miljon euro tillgångar under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 18 juni 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Produktbeskrivning
Invesco BulletShares 2028 EUR Corporate Bond UCITSETFDistsyftar till att tillhandahålla den totala avkastningen för Bloomberg 2028 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index (”Referensindexet”), minus påverkan av avgifter. Fonden har en fast löptid och kommer att upphöra på Förfallodagen. Fonden delar ut intäkter på kvartalsbasis.
Referensindexet är utformat för att återspegla resultatet för EUR-denominerade, investeringsklassade, fast ränta, skattepliktiga skuldebrev emitterade av företagsemittenter. För att vara kvalificerade för inkludering måste företagsvärdepapper ha minst 300 miljoner euro i nominellt utestående belopp och en effektiv löptid på eller mellan 1 januari 2028 och 31 december 2028.
Värdepapper är uteslutna om emittenter: 1) är inblandade i kontroversiella vapen, handeldvapen, militära kontrakt, oljesand, termiskt kol eller tobak; 2) inte har en kontroversnivå enligt definitionen av Sustainalytics eller har en Sustainalytics-kontroversnivå högre än 4; 3) anses inte följa principerna i FN:s Global Compact; eller 4) kommer från tillväxtmarknader.
Portföljförvaltarna strävar efter att uppnå fondens mål genom att tillämpa en urvalsstrategi, som inkluderar användning av kvantitativ analys, för att välja en andel av värdepapperen från referensindexet som representerar hela indexets egenskaper, med hjälp av faktorer som index- vägd genomsnittlig varaktighet, industrisektorer, landvikter och kreditkvalitet. När en företagsobligation som innehas av fonden når förfallodag kommer de kontanter som fonden tar emot att användas för att investera i kortfristiga EUR-denominerade skulder utgivna av det amerikanska finansdepartementet.
ETFen förvaltas passivt.
En investering i denna fond är ett förvärv av andelar i en passivt förvaltad indexföljande fond snarare än i de underliggande tillgångarna som ägs av fonden.
”Förfallodag”: den andra onsdagen i december 2028 eller sådant annat datum som bestäms av styrelseledamöterna och meddelas aktieägarna.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.
Since U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on April 2, termed ”Liberation Day,” global markets have experienced significant volatility. The S&P 500 shed $5.83 trillion in market value over just four days, marking its steepest drop since the 1950s. Asian markets saw their worst session since 2008, reflecting widespread fears of an economic slowdown.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yields initially fell below 4% as investors sought safety, but by April 8-9, they surged to a seven-week high of 4.515%. This spike, driven by bond market sell-offs potentially from basis trading or China’s strategic moves to pressure U.S. negotiations, suggests a precarious economic situation rather than risk-on sentiment.
On April 9, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries (excluding China, where tariffs jumped to 145%) in an effort to give markets time to absorb the changes and calm volatility. The move sparked a broad rally, with the S&P 500 surging 9.5% for its best day since 2008 and Bitcoin rebounding above $80,000 after a turbulent stretch.
Bitcoin is macro now
Despite persistent concerns about crypto volatility, Bitcoin’s price over the past two weeks has closely mirrored the S&P 500 and has actually been less volatile. This alignment reflects Bitcoin’s growing maturity as an asset class and highlights its resilience. As a highly liquid and accessible asset, it continues to attract investors looking for relative value in turbulent markets.
Sentiment shifts toward crypto ETFs
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $700 million in outflows, while Ethereum ETFs lost $400 million since March, marking a sharp reversal after nine consecutive months of inflows. The pullback points to growing institutional caution amid broader macro uncertainty. Still, on-chain data reveals that long-term holders have been steadily accumulating since January lows, signaling continued confidence in the asset class.
Macroeconomic uncertainty takes center stage
The latest U.S. CPI print came in at 2.4%, which was lower than expected. A rate cut in May still seems premature as markets assess the full impact of new protectionist measures. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has warned that tariffs could raise inflation while slowing growth. As a result, the probability of three rate cuts in 2025 now exceeds 60%. Declining yields may be an early signal of future monetary easing, which could favor risk assets like crypto if economic pressures intensify.
Bitcoin: Dollar’s ally or alternative?
In the face of policy uncertainty, the debate around the U.S. dollar’s reserve currency status is gaining momentum. With its decentralized and censorship-resistant design, Bitcoin is emerging as both a potential complement and challenger to the dollar, especially as the U.S. increasingly wields its currency as a geopolitical tool through tariffs and sanctions.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain solid. Hashrate is at all-time highs, regulatory clarity is improving, and long-term holders continue to accumulate. With prices consolidating above $80K, the current correction may offer a strategic opportunity for investors positioning for the next leg of growth, particularly as the macro picture evolves.
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