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Open-ended debate over US debt ceiling
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8 år sedanden

ETF Securities Fixed Income Research: Open-ended debate over US debt ceiling
Highlights
The December vote for US government funding bill for fiscal 2018 is critical for investors.
- President Trump’s deal with the Democrats reduces the likelihood of a tax reform.
- The additional supply of US Treasuries is likely to be partly offset by rising international demand as the global economy recovers.
Open-ended debate over US debt ceiling
The US federal government has already reached the congressionally mandated debt ceiling – the total amount of money that the US government is allowed to borrow to meet its existing legal obligations and interests on its debt – of US$19.8tn in November last year.
In November 2015, the US Congress suspended the debt limit through March 2017. Since March, the US Treasury has been using tax revenues and funds that do not count toward federal debt, the so-called “extraordinary measures”, to meet its legal obligations. These measures were expected to be exhausted by October 2017, forcing President Trump and the Congress to negotiate a deal.
Early in September, President Trump made an unexpected deal with the Democrats to raise the debt limit, including US$15bn of emergency aid after hurricane Harvey hit the Texan coast in late August. The move also temporarily funds the government into early December, so-called “continuing resolution”.
However, the Appropriations funding legislation for 2018 has to pass the Congress vote on December 8 to avoid a government shutdown and a possible default. Therefore, while the debt ceiling debate might go beyond next year’s midterm elections, the December vote is critical for investors.
We believe Trump’s intentions go beyond the immediate need for funding, as he pledged to ”explore ways to depoliticize it [debt ceiling]”, ultimately questioning its legitimacy. For a new long-term debt ceiling bill to pass it needs 60 votes in the Senate. Because the Republicans hold only a slim minority in Senate with 52 seats, a bipartisan deal will be required. The last deal made by Trump with the Democrats suggests the President will compromise with its own party, notably on federal spending cuts, to ensure the debt ceiling will be increased. The political consequences of such a deal has threatened Trump’s credibility within its own camp and his plans on infrastructure spending and tax reforms.
Renewed fears of US fiscal cliff
The “safe haven” status of the US Treasury bills is at stake. The rating agencies Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s warned that a failure by Congress to increase the debt limit in a timely manner would likely imply a review of the current AAA (highest level) rating of the US sovereign debt. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Partisan Conflict Index has risen to record highs in August along with the risk premiums on US Treasury short-term securities.
Market angst over the debt ceiling has significantly diminished since President Trump signed the temporary budget resolution earlier this month but we expect it to return as we approach December. The spread between 1- and 3-month Treasury bills has tightened after climbing as high as 27bps early September as investors repriced higher the default risk just before President Trump signed the debt relief bill.
In the worst-case scenario, a US default would trigger a disastrous financial crisis as US Treasuries account for about two-thirds of the US repo market. This market played a key role in the recent financial crisis as the difficulties for Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers to borrow in this market led to their collapse. In the past, the US Congress has always lifted the debt ceiling to avoid default, although often at the very last minute such as after the government shut-down in October 2013.
Increased supply of US Treasuries
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects the US deficit to rise from 3% of GDP to 8% of GDP over the next decade, with growth in revenues outpaced by growth in spending for federal benefits programs (Medicare and Medicaid) due to the aging US population and higher service costs on the government’s debt. Furthermore, the CBO estimated that in the absence of a change in the fiscal trajectory, the public debt would rise from 77% today to 150% of the GDP in three decades.
President Trump’s intended tax cuts and increased military spending would have an even greater impact on the US debt, in particular if there were no spending cuts elsewhere notably in benefits programs unchanged. For example, the tax plan Trump proposed during the campaign would add about US$7.2tn to the debt over a decade, as estimated by the Tax Policy Center.
Those accumulating deficits would significantly increase the issuance of US Treasury bonds and risk premiums are likely rise along with it due to degradation of the fiscal outlook. Some FOMC member such as former Fed’s Vice President Stanley Fischer have warned that “uncertainty about the outlook for government policy in health care, regulation, taxes, and trade can cause firms to delay projects until the policy environment clarifies” and ultimately hurts economic growth. The increased financing needs coupled to the Fed’s normalisation of its balance sheet potentially followed by other central banks might result in a higher supply of Treasuries in years to come.
The US Treasury market is concentrated, with China being the second biggest buyer, after Japan, holding just above US$1tn of US Treasuries (20% of the foreign holding of US government bonds). After declining since 2014, China’s holdings of US Treasuries have strongly rebounded since the beginning of the year as Chinese economy has recovered, the Renminbi appreciates and capital outflows have eased. We expect Chinese holdings of Treasuries to continue to grow towards US$1.3tn – total holdings prior to the currency devaluation in August 2015.
In addition, investors have reported high quality liquid assets (HQLA) shortage resulting from central banks’ large-scale purchase of government bonds. With improving economic conditions, banks assets are likely to rise in tandem with the demand for HQLA to meet the capital requirements under Basel III. Overall, we expect this additional supply to be partly offset in the medium term by an increasing international demand as the global economy recovers.
For more information contact:
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
Important Information
This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).
The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.
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Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
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WELC ETF ger exponering mot företag inom sällanköpsvaror
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28 april, 2025
Amundi S&P Global Consumer Discretionary ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) (WELC ETF) med ISIN IE00061J0RC6, strävar efter att spåra S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Consumer Discretionary index. Det S&P-utvecklade ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Consumer Discretionary-indexet spårar stora och medelstora företag från den diskretionära konsumentsektorn. ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning) beaktas vid valet av värdepapper.
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,18% p.a.. Amundi S&P Global Consumer Discretionary ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) är den billigaste ETF som följer S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Consumer Discretionary index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (Årligen).
Amundi S&P Global Consumer Discretionary ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) är en mycket liten ETF med 5 miljoner euro förvaltade tillgångar. Denna ETF lanserades den 20 september 2022 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Investeringsmål
AMUNDI S&P GLOBAL CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ESG UCITS ETF DR – EUR (D) försöker replikera, så nära som möjligt, resultatet för S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Consumer Discretionary Index (Netto Total Return Index). Denna ETF har exponering mot stora och medelstora företag i utvecklade länder. Den innehåller uteslutningskriterier för tobak, kontroversiella vapen, civila och militära handeldvapen, termiskt kol, olja och gas (inkl. Arctic Oil & Gas), oljesand, skiffergas. Den är också utformad för att välja ut och omvikta företag för att tillsammans förbättra hållbarhet och ESG-profiler, uppfylla miljömål och minska koldioxidavtrycket.
Handla WELC ETF
Amundi S&P Global Consumer Discretionary ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) (WELC ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.
Börsnoteringar
Största innehav
Denna fond använder fysisk replikering för att spåra indexets prestanda.
Namn | Valuta | Vikt % | Sektor |
AMAZON.COM INC | USD | 18.89 % | Sällanköpsvaror |
TESLA INC | USD | 13.29 % | Sällanköpsvaror |
HOME DEPOT INC | USD | 5.75 % | Sällanköpsvaror |
LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUI | EUR | 5.44 % | Sällanköpsvaror |
TOYOTA MOTOR CORP | JPY | 4.58 % | Sällanköpsvaror |
MCDONALD S CORP COM NPV | USD | 2.63 % | Sällanköpsvaror |
LOWE S COS INC COM US 0.50 | USD | 2.38 % | Sällanköpsvaror |
SONY GROUP CORP (JT) | JPY | 2.25 % | Sällanköpsvaror |
BOOKING HOLDINGS INC | USD | 2.02 % | Sällanköpsvaror |
TJX COMPANIES INC | USD | 1.89 % | Sällanköpsvaror |
Innehav kan komma att förändras

To understand Celestia’s value and its role in the ecosystem, it’s helpful to first understand how traditional blockchain systems are structured.
Most blockchains, like Ethereum or Bitcoin, are monolithic which means they perform all major functions (consensus, data availability, and execution) on a single layer. This design ensures security but according to new modular networks, limits scalability and flexibility.
The modular blockchain thesis, which Celestia is leading, proposes separation of layers and respective responsibilities in the network. Instead of having one network and its validators perform all of its functions, it may be better to have specialized layers:
• Consensus Layer: Ensures that all nodes agree on the order of transactions.
• Data Availability Layer: Ensures transaction data is accessible to all participants.
• Execution Layer: Processes the actual logic and computation of smart contracts.
By unbundling these components, developers can build more efficient, flexible systems that scale far beyond what monolithic blockchains can support. Not all applications need similar levels of security and not all applications need to scale up to millions of transactions. Additionally, one application might be scaling beyond the capabilities of its host network, severely effecting the available data throughput of other applications. This limits developers to the monolithic technology stack provided by a virtual machine such as Ethereum’ EVM.
The Issue of Data Availability
One of the most misunderstood yet crucial components of any blockchain is data availability. In simple terms, it ensures that the data behind each block is fully accessible and verifiable by all participants in the network. Another way to describe it is as the confidence a user can have that the data required to verify a block is really available to all network participants. Data availability is therefore important to all stakeholders of the blockchain ecosystem.
If a block producer withholds data, then nodes cannot verify the block, which leads to potential censorship or fraud.
Traditionally, a blockchain network can offer data availability with the following mechanisms:
• Full Replication: Every node stores the entire blockchain and verifies all data. Secure but not quite scalable.
• Sharding: Breaks the blockchain into smaller pieces (shards), spreading data across nodes. Scalable but highly complex to implement.
• Committee-Based Models: Small groups of nodes are trusted to verify data availability. Efficient, but less decentralized.
Celestia takes a completely different approach using a novel method called Data Availability Sampling (DAS). Instead of requiring every node to download all data, DAS allows lightweight nodes to randomly sample small chunks of a block. If enough pieces are retrievable, the node can confidently assume the full block is available. This slashes resource requirements while maintaining security and decentralization.
Why Data Availability Matters
Data availability might sound like a nerdy technical term, but it’s one of the most important yet one of less invisible parts of how blockchains work.
Let’s say you’re using a crypto app to trade tokens, store art, or move money. Every time you do something, that action (also referred to as a transaction) needs to be recorded and shared with the rest of the network so everyone agrees it happened. If that data disappears or can’t be verified, the whole system becomes untrustworthy. You might think your tokens moved but if no one else can see that record or a different version of that record, it’s as if it never happened.
Here’s a real-life parallel: imagine a public scoreboard at a sports game. If the scorekeeper shows the score to only a few people and then hides the board, how can the rest of the crowd trust the result? Everyone needs to see the score to believe it’s fair. In crypto, data availability is what makes sure the scoreboard is always visible to all participants at any time.
How DAS Changes the Game
Traditionally, ensuring data availability meant every node had to download and verify the entire block of data for any purpose related to particular data inside the block, like reading a whole newspaper just to check one article. Ethereum and most competing monolithic layer-1’s operate this way. It works, but it’s expensive, slow, and becomes less practical as blockchains scale in terms of data throughput required by its Dapps therefore limiting the types of applications that developers can build.
Celestia’s Data Availability Sampling (DAS) is a breakthrough that lets even simple devices (like smartphones) verify that a block’s data is available—by checking just a few random pieces. If enough pieces are found and correct, the network can be confident the full block is truly there and correct.
This innovation means:
• Light clients can safely participate in the network without downloading everything.
• Rollups and app-chains can post their data to Celestia with minimal overhead.
• Scalability skyrockets without sacrificing decentralization.
Celestia’s Role in Scaling Applications
Celestia is the first blockchain designed specifically to be a modular data availability layer. That means it doesn’t execute smart contracts or handle transactions directly, instead, it provides a foundation for others to build new networks, also referred to as rollups.
Developers can launch rollups or full execution environments, and use Celestia to handle the consensus and data availability side. This unlocks several key benefits:
• Massive scalability: Apps can scale independently from each other.
• Customization: Developers choose their own virtual machines, consensus mechanism and execution logic.
• Decentralization: Thanks to DAS, even small devices can validate the system.
This approach flips the script on how we think about launching and scaling blockchains. Instead of competing for space on a monolithic chain, apps get their own chains, backed by Celestia’s secure and scalable data availability layer while giving developers full stack control over their applications.
Celestia Enables Scalability and Offers Full-Stack Control
Using the restaurant example from Sui vs Aptos. Imagine a big, busy restaurant where the chefs, waiters, and cashiers all work in the same small kitchen. It gets crowded, orders take forever, and sometimes things go wrong while the backlog of orders keeps growing. That’s how traditional blockchains work, doing everything in one place.
Now imagine if the restaurant separated the jobs: the chefs cook in a big kitchen, waiters serve from a clean dining area, and the cashiers handle payments at the front desk. Everything runs smoother, faster, and the restaurant can grow in a environment that is less prone to congestion. That is what Celestia is doing for blockchains. Let’s say a small specialty restaurant opens up next door, leveraging Celestia’s register and order management system. That new restaurant can fully focus on delivering the best food and experience to customers, knowing that Celestia’s technology won’t be the limiting factor when scaling up their kitchen. The modularity that Celestia’s restaurant offers is allowing a lot of small scale restaurants to exist without the overhead of individual administrative work. It goes even a step further, Celestia allows you to just use it register while letting smaller restaurants pick their own kitchen (execution environment) and order management system (consensus layer).
In conclusion, Celestia is challenging the believe that blockchains should always be monolithic and blockchains need to offer the same technology stack to all developers on its chain. It is a significant leap forward in the crypto ecosystem and opens possibilities that were previously not feasible.
Diversify Crypto Exposure to Modular Blockchain Technology with the VanEck Celestia ETN
Key features of the VanEck Celestia ETN
• Celestia enables secure scaling of blockchain applications with modular technology.
• Fully-collateralized by TIA in cold-storage.
• Total return of TIA: Tracks the MarketVector™ Celestia VWAP Close Index (MVTIAV).
Why VanEck Crypto ETNs? Here’s why:
• With nearly 70 years in asset management and a strong track record in crypto, we bring deep industry knowledge and proven reliability.
• We combine traditional financial strengths with cutting-edge crypto innovation, backed by a CEO who truly believes in crypto’s future.
• We ensure clarity in our product structures and avoid high-risk or opaque practices, with assets fully backed by cryptocurrency in secure cold storage.
• Our assets are secured by a licensed European bank in Liechtenstein, providing top-tier compliance and security.
• We use the safest institutional custody setup available, prioritizing your security over cost savings.
Crypto is an asset class with high potential returns but investing in digital assets comes with great risk, why choose products that potentially introduce even more risks? Choose VanEck for a secure, transparent, and expertly managed crypto investment experience.
Main Risk Factors:
Investors should note that there is no direct ownership for the crypto assets, but a claim against Issuer to receive such assets.
• Complexity risk: The complexity of the project and its technological concepts make it challenging to assess its viability and valuation.
• Adoption risk: Celestia introduces additional adoption risk as it is uncertain if the concept of modular blockchains will succeed.
• Technology risk: Celestia introduces additional technology risk due to the technology being less mature and therefore could be more prone to bugs and exploits.
• Regulatory Risk: market disruptions and governmental interventions may make digital assets illegal.
• Risk of Losses and Volatility: The trading prices of many digital assets have experienced extreme volatility in recent periods and may continue to do so. There is a risk of total loss as no guarantee can be made regarding custody due to hacking risk, counterparty risk and market risk.
• Other risks specific to this ETN’s Digital Assets can also be found on the VanEck Crypto Academy.
This is not financial research but the opinion of the author of the article. We publish this information to inform and educate about recent market developments and technological updates, not to give any recommendation for certain products or projects. The selection of articles should therefore not be understood as financial advice or recommendation for any specific product and/or digital asset. We may occasionally include analysis of past market, network performance expectations and/or on-chain performance. Historical performance is not indicative for future returns.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
For informational and advertising purposes only.
This information originates from VanEck (Europe) GmbH, Kreuznacher Strasse 30, 60486 Frankfurt am Main, Deutschland and VanEck Switzerland AG, Genferstrasse 21, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland.
It is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice. VanEck (Europe) GmbH and its associated and affiliated companies (together “VanEck”) assume no liability with regards to any investment, divestment or retention decision taken by the investor on the basis of this information. Views and opinions expressed are current as of the date of this information and are subject to change with market conditions. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward looking statements, which do not reflect actual results. VanEck makes no representation or warranty, express or implied regarding the advisability of investing in securities or digital assets generally or in the product mentioned in this information (the “Product”) or the ability of the underlying Index to track the performance of the relevant digital assets market.
Investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal up to the entire invested amount and the extreme volatility that ETNs experience. You must read the prospectus and KID before investing, in order to fully understand the potential risks and rewards associated with the decision to invest in the Product. The approved Prospectus is available at www.vaneck.com. Please note that the approval of the prospectus should not be understood as an endorsement of the Products offered or admitted to trading on a regulated market.
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Investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal up to the entire invested amount and the extreme volatility that ETNs experience. You must read the prospectus and KID before investing, in order to fully understand the potential risks and rewards associated with the decision to invest in the Product. The approved Prospectus is available at www.vaneck.com. Please note that the approval of the prospectus should not be understood as an endorsement of the Products offered or admitted to trading on a regulated market.
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Current performance may be lower or higher than average annual returns shown. Performance shows 12 month performance to the most recent Quarter end for each of the last 5yrs where available. E.g. ’1st year’ shows the most recent of these 12-month periods and ’2nd year’ shows the previous 12 month period and so on. Performance data is displayed in Base Currency terms, with net income reinvested, net of fees. Brokerage or transaction fees will apply. Investment return and the principal value of an investment will fluctuate. Notes may be worth more or less than their original cost when redeemed.
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© VanEck (Europe) GmbH / © VanEck Switzerland AG

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