Nyheter
Oil Remains Volatile Ahead of the OPEC Meeting
ETF Securities Commodity ETP Weekly Oil Remains Volatile Ahead of the OPEC Meeting
Oil ETPs see outflows as investors’ expectation of production cuts recede.
ETFS Daily Leveraged Coffee (LCFE) sees its highest ever inflow since inception in 2008.
IMF’s payment extension eases concern of immediate Greek default.
ETFS Daily Leveraged Natural Gas (LNGA) sees US$2.9mn inflows, the highest in 4 weeks on the back of bargain hunting.
We are hosting a webinar on the 8th June to cover Friday’s OPEC meeting featuring Amrita Sen, a renowned oil analyst from Energy Aspects.
The premature gains in oil prices that we had seen since March 2015 started to unravel last week with WTI and Brent falling 5% and 6% respectively, before recovering somewhat on Friday. A firmer US dollar had weighed on all commodities. Added to that is a growing consensus that OPEC will not cut production at its June 5th meeting. We will be analyzing the outcome of that meeting in a webinar on June 8th with Amrita Sen from Energy Aspects. To register for the webinar please click here . On Friday we saw a 5% rally in WTI as the market read the larger than expected contraction in US rigs that week as a sign that US producers remain price sensitive.
Oil ETPs see outflows as investors’ expectation of production cuts recede. We have long argued that the gain in prices since March were premature given the lack of evidence of supply tightening. US shale oil rigs have been shut off at break neck speed in recent months, but that trend has come to halt with prices firming. Other high-cost producers will also be cutting back on production, but that process will take some time given the higher lead times. The OPEC is no longer trying to guarantee the rate of return for producers. It wants market share. It is increasingly likely that it will not cut production at its June 5th meeting. We saw US$48.5mn of outflows from long Brent and WTI ETPs, while profit taking withdrew a US$5.1mn from short oil ETPs. Many investors think there will be a better entry point non-US producers cut back on production and tighten global supplies.
ETFS Daily Leveraged Coffee (LCFE) sees its highest ever inflow since inception in 2008. With the price of coffee falling a further 2.6% last week, (29.0% y-o-y), investors saw another bargain hunting opportunity. While the price had rallied excessively in 2014 in response the drought in Brazil at the time, the recent crash in prices appears equally excessive. The 2014 drought which lasted into the February 2015 had irrevocably damaged Brazilian coffee bushes. Although strong rain since February will help recover yields by some margin, the bearish sentiment towards the commodity appears disproportionate. While the USDA and CONAB have revised upward their production estimates from Brazil, leaf rust fungus is rife in Central America, threatening to wipe out production in some of the smaller producing countries. El Niño, however remains a wild card. While the meteorological organisations have declared that the weather pattern will last through the Southern hemisphere winter, its intensity is still unknown. An El Niño could bring a warmer, dryer winter to Brazil, reducing frost damage, which could help the crop.
IMF’s payment extension eases concern of immediate Greek default. While the IMF allowed Greece to delay its 5th June payment to the end of the month, it also acknowledged that the country could leave the Euro area. Gold’s pullback of 1.7% and gold ETP outflows of US$11.6mn last week seem somewhat premature given the that the debt negotiations over the weekend have ended with no resolve.
ETFS Daily Leveraged Natural Gas (LNGA) sees US$2.9mn inflows, the highest in 4 weeks on the back of bargain hunting. An unexpectedly strong gain in gas storage drove prices down 8.2%. However, with summer weather likely to drive demand for gas higher in coming months, investors expect prices to recover.
Key events to watch this week. US payrolls will be the focus of investors this week as the Federal Reserve will remain very data dependent in its rates decisions.
Video Presentation
Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
Important Information
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.
Since U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on April 2, termed ”Liberation Day,” global markets have experienced significant volatility. The S&P 500 shed $5.83 trillion in market value over just four days, marking its steepest drop since the 1950s. Asian markets saw their worst session since 2008, reflecting widespread fears of an economic slowdown.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yields initially fell below 4% as investors sought safety, but by April 8-9, they surged to a seven-week high of 4.515%. This spike, driven by bond market sell-offs potentially from basis trading or China’s strategic moves to pressure U.S. negotiations, suggests a precarious economic situation rather than risk-on sentiment.
On April 9, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries (excluding China, where tariffs jumped to 145%) in an effort to give markets time to absorb the changes and calm volatility. The move sparked a broad rally, with the S&P 500 surging 9.5% for its best day since 2008 and Bitcoin rebounding above $80,000 after a turbulent stretch.
Bitcoin is macro now
Despite persistent concerns about crypto volatility, Bitcoin’s price over the past two weeks has closely mirrored the S&P 500 and has actually been less volatile. This alignment reflects Bitcoin’s growing maturity as an asset class and highlights its resilience. As a highly liquid and accessible asset, it continues to attract investors looking for relative value in turbulent markets.
Sentiment shifts toward crypto ETFs
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $700 million in outflows, while Ethereum ETFs lost $400 million since March, marking a sharp reversal after nine consecutive months of inflows. The pullback points to growing institutional caution amid broader macro uncertainty. Still, on-chain data reveals that long-term holders have been steadily accumulating since January lows, signaling continued confidence in the asset class.
Macroeconomic uncertainty takes center stage
The latest U.S. CPI print came in at 2.4%, which was lower than expected. A rate cut in May still seems premature as markets assess the full impact of new protectionist measures. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has warned that tariffs could raise inflation while slowing growth. As a result, the probability of three rate cuts in 2025 now exceeds 60%. Declining yields may be an early signal of future monetary easing, which could favor risk assets like crypto if economic pressures intensify.
Bitcoin: Dollar’s ally or alternative?
In the face of policy uncertainty, the debate around the U.S. dollar’s reserve currency status is gaining momentum. With its decentralized and censorship-resistant design, Bitcoin is emerging as both a potential complement and challenger to the dollar, especially as the U.S. increasingly wields its currency as a geopolitical tool through tariffs and sanctions.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain solid. Hashrate is at all-time highs, regulatory clarity is improving, and long-term holders continue to accumulate. With prices consolidating above $80K, the current correction may offer a strategic opportunity for investors positioning for the next leg of growth, particularly as the macro picture evolves.
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
iShares och Franklin Templeton listar nya ETFer på Xetra
BE28 ETF företagsobligationer med förfall 2028 och inget annat
Trump’s trade war puts Bitcoin in the spotlight
YCSH ETF är en satsning på den europeiska dagslåneräntan
Crypto’s stress-tested resilience
Fonder som ger exponering mot försvarsindustrin
Crypto Market Risks & Opportunities: Insights on Bybit Hack, Bitcoin, and Institutional Adoption
Warren Buffetts råd om vad man ska göra när börsen kraschar
Montrose storsatsning på ETFer fortsätter – lanserar Sveriges första globala ETF med hävstång
Svenskarna har en ny favorit-ETF
-
Nyheter4 veckor sedanFonder som ger exponering mot försvarsindustrin
-
Nyheter3 veckor sedanCrypto Market Risks & Opportunities: Insights on Bybit Hack, Bitcoin, and Institutional Adoption
-
Nyheter3 veckor sedanWarren Buffetts råd om vad man ska göra när börsen kraschar
-
Nyheter2 veckor sedanMontrose storsatsning på ETFer fortsätter – lanserar Sveriges första globala ETF med hävstång
-
Nyheter3 veckor sedanSvenskarna har en ny favorit-ETF
-
Nyheter4 veckor sedanHANetf lanserar Europa-fokuserad försvars-ETF
-
Nyheter2 veckor sedanMONTLEV, Sveriges första globala ETF med hävstång
-
Nyheter3 veckor sedanFastställd utdelning i MONTDIV mars 2025
