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Oil remains in focus on falling US inventories
Commodity ETP Weekly Oil remains in focus on falling US inventories
Highlights
- Investors favour WTI over Brent as US inventories unexpectedly drop.
- Gold and silver ETPs suffer US$77mn of outflows on profit taking.
- Natural gas price correction drive inflows to natural gas ETPs to 34-mth highs as winter season approaches.
- Profit taking prompts 28-mth high outflows from wheat ETPs.
- ETFS Aluminium (ALUM) outflows hit 9-week high on price weakness.
Investors are becoming increasingly optimistic about oil outlook, with a fall in US stockpiles prompting the 10th consecutive weekly inflow into WTI ETPs. While prices are unlikely to recover sharply in the short-term unless output falls, the ongoing US economic recovery is likely to support demand for distillates.
Investors favour WTI over Brent as US inventories unexpectedly drop. While long Brent ETPs suffered US$82mn of outflows last week, long WTI crude ETPs recorded US$46mn of inflows. Both benchmarks’ prices dropped below US$70/bbl after OPEC’s decision not to cut production for the time being. While the IEA expects 82% of crude oil and condensates production from the United States is still profitable at a price of US$60/bbl or lower, if prices remain persistently low production will likely be reduced by higher cost producers. Although price weakness is likely to continue through the first half of 2015, continued growth from the US and China, combined with a reduction in oil supply, will eventually bring the oil market back to balance in our view with prices returning to trade around the US$90/bbl level.
Gold and silver ETPs suffer US$77mn of outflows on profit taking. Gold has risen almost 6% from the lows experienced after the Swiss gold referendum last week, while silver saw gains for over 15% from its nadir of US$14.08oz in 2014. We believe silver will continue to outperform gold in 2015, as the recovery in China and the US gains momentum, prompting a pick-up in industrial demand for silver.
Natural gas price correction drive inflows to natural gas ETPs to 34-mth highs as winter season approaches. Henry Hub natural gas prices fell by over 16% last week on mild weather, prompting US$30mn of inflows into long and leveraged natural gas ETPs. We expect prices to remain pressured in the short term by both weather forecasts of above average temperatures and abundant supply. However, the gathering momentum of the US economy and increased usage of natural gas in industry and electricity generation will create a supportive price environment in 2015.
Profit taking prompts 28-mth high outflows from wheat ETPs. The wheat price jumped 6.7% on unusually cold weather in the US in recent weeks, as frost might pose a threat to the newly seeded winter crop. Concerns over faltering Russian exports also contributed to buoy wheat prices last week. Russia announced it will consider introducing a floating tariff on grain exports to protect domestic supply should cold weather drastically reduce production. Outflows from long and leveraged wheat ETPs totalled US$20.3mn.
ETFS Aluminium (ALUM) outflows hit 9-week high on price weakness. Aluminium price hit a 5-year low last week, prompting US$52.8mn of outflows despite recent figures from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics showing a deficit in the global aluminium market in the first 9 months of the year. Overproduction in China is likely to continue to weigh on the aluminium price in the medium term. However, Norsk Hydro, one of aluminium’s biggest producers, expects prices to recover in 2015 on the back of tighter supply and strong demand from the automotive sector. At the same time, ETFS Copper (COPA) recorded the largest inflows since August, totalling US$13.4mn, on expected production cuts. Codelco, the world’s largest copper miner, recently announced it will cut production by 5% in 2015 in response to falling prices.
Key events to watch this week. This week will be dominated by China’s economic data, with aggregate financing, retail sales and industrial production all due to be released. China’s stock market surged last week as stimulus from the PBoC and the government is starting to produce its effects on the real economy.
Video Presentation
Simona Gambarini, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
Important Information
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.
Like Bitcoin, Dogecoin uses a proof-of-work (PoW) consensus mechanism but runs on its own blockchain, originally forked from Litecoin. It uses the Scrypt hashing algorithm, which is less resource-intensive than Bitcoin’s SHA-256, making mining more accessible to everyday users with consumer-grade hardware. Due to merged mining with Litecoin, Dogecoin benefits from shared infrastructure, with hashpower recently reaching all-time highs of 2.7 petahashes (quadrillion hashes) per second, making the network increasingly difficult to attack.
Dogecoin’s design is built for speed and utility, has no maximum supply, and confirms blocks every minute (10x faster than Bitcoin). Moreover, it maintains ultra-low transaction fees, which is ideal for tipping, microtransactions, and everyday use.
More than a meme
Although its supply is technically unlimited, Dogecoin’s issuance model is clear and predictable. Approximately 10,000 DOGE are mined every minute, adding up to around 5.25 billion new tokens each year. As the supply base expands, this fixed issuance creates a natural disinflationary trend that has cut nearly in half over the past decade while ensuring network security through consistent miner rewards.
Dogecoin’s technology fosters an aligned ecosystem between users and miners. With sustainable economic incentives, it acts as a kind of “retail Bitcoin”, built not just for hoarding but for real-world use, too.
While Dogecoin began as a lighthearted experiment, its evolution has proven it to be far more than a meme. Thanks to its speed, low fees, and strong community backing, Dogecoin has grown into a functional digital currency with a range of real-world use cases. From payments and merchant adoption to infrastructure development and charitable giving, Dogecoin continues to demonstrate its staying power as a practical and accessible tool in the broader crypto ecosystem.
Dogecoin as a payment tool
Dogecoin has transformed into a widely accepted digital currency, embraced by major brands like Tesla, AMC, Newegg, and the Dallas Mavericks. With fast transaction speeds and low fees, even amid surging transaction volumes, it has become a practical option for everyday payments. Crypto payment processors like BitPay have further expanded its reach, enabling thousands of merchants worldwide to accept DOGE. Most recently, The Open House Group, a prominent Tokyo Stock Exchange-listed real estate firm, added Dogecoin to its supported list, making it one of the few digital assets accepted for property transactions.
Enhancing Dogecoin’s payment infrastructure
Initiatives like Dogebox and GigaWallet are simplifying DOGE integration for businesses, while its scaling solution, Laika, is making meaningful progress in improving transaction speed and reducing costs.
Meanwhile, RadioDoge is working to expand access by enabling offline transactions in remote regions through low-cost radio and Starlink technology, advancing global crypto inclusion. A rumored integration with Elon Musk’s X platform could extend Dogecoin’s utility across digital tipping and commerce. These efforts collectively reinforce Dogecoin’s growing relevance in real-world payments and its potential as a frictionless, decentralized transaction layer.
Do Only Good Every Day
As we’ve seen, community drives memecoins, and Dogecoin’s community shines the brightest. This global network not only thrives on memes but also channels that energy into social good. From funding clean water in Kenya to sending Jamaica’s Bobsled Team to the Olympics and raising over $1 million for Ukraine relief, DOGE’s community transforms internet culture into real-world impact. Low fees and fast transactions make it a favorite for grassroots giving, showing a coin born as a joke can leave a lasting legacy. Dogecoin is more than a digital asset—it’s a movement powered by a community that believes in doing good every day.
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
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