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Oil ETPs in Focus Ahead of OPEC Meeting
Oil ETPs in Focus Ahead of OPEC Meeting
Highlights
- Both long and short WTI crude see inflows as investors position themselves ahead of the OPEC meeting.
- Mild winter expectations drive US$11mn out of long natural gas ETPs.
- Bargain hunters prompt largest inflows since March for ETFS Cotton (COTN) as the price falls to a 5-year low.
- Gold ETPs remain under pressure as price falls below US$1,150oz.
While gold and natural gas saw outflows last week, oil continued to attract investors’ interest ahead of the OPEC meeting on November 27
Investors appear to be split in their expectations for the meeting, with both long and short oil ETPs receiving inflows. Bargain hunting is clearly becoming a recurrent theme with the correction in commodity prices likely to trigger a supply response next year.
Both long and short WTI crude see inflows as investors position themselves ahead of the OPEC meeting
The price of WTI crude is now trading close to US$74/bbl, the lowest level in 4 years. While OPEC has historically played a fundamental role in keeping oil prices well supported, prices were under pressure as OPEC members sold oil at a discount in order to increase market share in Asia and the US, despite the Saudi oil ministers’ assertions that a price war was not occurring. With the majority of OPEC countries estimated to require oil prices of above US$90/bbl to balance government budgets, it appear only a matter of time before OPEC announce output reductions and that could happen as early as November 27, when OPEC holds its next meeting.
Mild winter expectations drive US$11mn out of long natural gas ETPs
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts average to above average temperatures for the US 2014-15 winter season, with warmer weather in the West and in New England, and cooler temperatures in parts of the south-central and south-eastern regions. Higher levels of production combined with lower levels of consumption should result in a significantly lower drawdown of natural gas inventories this winter, in turn putting downward pressure on prices. The EIA expects Henry Hub spot price to average $4.00/MMBtu this winter compared with $4.52/MMBtu last winter.
Bargain hunters prompt largest inflows since March for ETFS Cotton (COTN) as the price falls to a 5-year low
Inflows amounted to US$5.7mn last week as prices dropped following the USDA raising its projections for cotton inventories in the US. Excess production and lower demand from China have increased expectations for inventories for the US, The world’s largest exporter. Abundant stockpiles have weighed on cotton prices this year, as production is forecasted to outpace consumption for the 5th straight year. With China offloading some of the inventories accumulated in recent years by way of its subsidy programme, we expect the outlook for cotton to remain bearish.
Gold ETPs remain under pressure as price falls below US$1,150oz
Outflows from long gold ETPs continued last week as prospects for global growth improved and inflationary risk remains low. The release of the World Gold Council’s Gold demand trends for Q3 last week showed feeble gold demand, with jewellery and coin/bar demand softening. Demand from India could also weaken, as the government might reintroduce some of the curbs on gold imports that were eased in May. While in the short term those discussions might prompt consumers to buy gold ahead of the restrictions being introduced, the higher premiums that could follow a potential tightening of restrictions will likely dampen demand going forward, reducing some of the support for the gold price in 2015.
Key events to watch this week
Investors will be closely monitoring the monetary policy releases from the US Fed, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan to gauge the policymakers’ outlook for growth and how this will affect demand for commodities going into 2015. However, the results for the upcoming OPEC meeting and the Swiss gold referendum will be key for the precious metals and energy sectors performance at the back end of 2014.
Video Presentation
Simona Gambarini, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
Important Information
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.
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Mar.25 crypto update, Research commentary on market turmoil, CIO Notes and ETP performance attribution
A – Research commentaries from last week developments
- Markets reacted to Trump tariffs – Bitcoin stands
Global markets fell sharply after President Trump’s new 25% tariffs on Chinese imports. Stocks led the decline – the Nasdaq 100 is now down -14% since the election, and the S&P 500 -12.3%. Crypto reacted too, but not uniformly:
• Altcoins such as SOL and ETH were hit hardest (down over 30% since November)
• Bitcoin and the Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) showed resilience, gaining +14.3% and +9.3%, respectively since Election
This kind of selloff tends to erase diversification — everything moves together. But it’s essential to take a longer view:
• Since Trump’s election, only three assets have consistently outperformed: Bitcoin, NCI, and gold.
• Last week, only gold outpaced BTC, confirming the role of digital assets as a strategic long-term allocation — even in volatile regimes.
- Regulatory tailwinds are building
The next phase of crypto decoupling could come from policy. In the US, the signals are turning positive:
• The STABLE Act advanced in Congress, with Trump urging swift approval
• A tokenized fund paid $4.17M in dividends last month, proving blockchain’s real-world income potential
• The SEC has launched a review of past crypto guidance — a move toward clearer rules and broader institutional comfort
Bottom line: In a week where most assets fell, crypto stood out. That’s not a coincidence — it’s a signal.
B – CIO Monthly Notes – Crypto’s Political Tailwinds Are Blowing Hard
• Following a week in Washington, our CIO outlines how crypto is gaining bipartisan traction in DC.
• Key takeaway: regulatory clarity is coming faster than expected, and institutions are taking note.
C – March 2025 ETP performance overview
As of 31/03/25 – Source: Hashdex and Bloomberg. Performances in USD.
Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HASH / HDX1) : March: -4.5% | YTD: -19%
Key drivers in March: Bitcoin and Ethereum
March Performance Attribution:
Hashdex Crypto Momentum Factor ETP (HAMO / HDXM): March: -8.5% | YTD: -22%
Key drivers in March: Litecoin, Ethereum and Solana
March Performance Attribution:
Hashdex Multi-Crypto Index ETPs
Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HASH)
• Broad exposure to BTC, ETH, and major altcoins (SOL, XRP, ADA, etc)
• Quarterly rebalancing – evolutive, market cap-based allocation with no caps (weights and number of constituents)
• Largest crypto index ETP in Europe (+$300m AUM)
• ISIN: CH1184151731 | Tickers: HASH (SIX, Euronext) / HDX1 (Xetra)
• Tradable in USD, EUR, CHF, GBP
• Factsheet / Product page / Index Methodology
Hashdex Crypto Momentum Factor ETP (HAMO/HDXM )
• Momentum-based strategy with monthly rebalancing
• Designed to capture trends across large-cap crypto assets
• ISIN: CH1218734544 | Tickers: HAMO (SIX, Euronext) / HDXM (Xetra)
• Tradable in USD, EUR, CHF, GBP
• Factsheet / Product page / Index Methodology
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