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MiCA’s into full effect, Bitcoin’s structural importance and Polymarket’s stellar year
December 30, 2024, has not only marked the upcoming new year, but also brought the second part of the EU’s MiCA Regulation into full effect. In 2025, industries will face new requirements for crypto-asset service provider (CASP) licensing and market abuse prevention, aimed at enhancing the legitimacy and stability of the European crypto-asset market.
With Bitcoin surpassing the $100,000 milestone, investors and financial institutions are renewing their focus on crypto-related products, making MiCA’s introduction particularly timely. As regulatory developments in the crypto universe make headlines in 2025 (not only in Europe, but also in the US after Trump’s triumph in the elections), we expect that a more developed framework will allow for blockchain technology services to gradually be integrated into our daily lives seamlessly.
Two of the key aspects lie upon the following trends: Tokenization and Stablecoins. Tokenization enables digital asset representations, offering faster payments and seamless wallet integration via secure blockchain ledgers. Stablecoins, pegged to assets like fiat currencies or gold, stand out as practical and stable options for everyday use.
We believe Europe’s innovations go beyond these two trends, with notable efforts like the Digital Euro (a CBDC by the European Central Bank) and advancements in electronic identification and authentication systems.
We suggest investors to consider that, just as Bitcoin’s institutional adoption and market cap grew after the approval of US spot ETFs, stablecoins could see similar growth as Europe and the US adopt more inclusive integration policies.
Source: Hashdex Research with data from Messari (from January 01, 2024 to June 30, 2024).
Dec 29 2024 – Jan 05 2025
JPMorgan backs BTC and gold structural importance as key assets in “debasement trade”
• JPMorgan highlighted the importance of bitcoin and gold as key components in investor portfolios, in midst of an increasing “debasement trade” trend.
• This underscores the growing importance of bitcoin as a store of value asset in investors’ portfolios, being closely associated with gold, in their battle against currency debasement.
• Furthermore, this growing importance could have its crescendo in 2025, as bitcoin becomes even more mainstream and institutional investors choose to adopt it as a tool to protect their portfolios.
Prediction platform Polymarket had a stellar year in 2024
• The most famous crypto prediction market, Polymarket, had astonishing 2024 numbers to display, with monthly volume growing by 66.5% throughout the year, leading to a cumulative trading volume that has surpassed $9 billion.
• As highlighted in our Crypto Investment Outlook 2025, applications are going to be the key to attract users, and Polymarket illustrates yet another successful user-driven application in crypto showcasing the untapped potential of applications in crypto.
The Nasdaq Crypto Index™
The year started in a promising fashion for crypto, with the NCI™ soaring 6.9% in the year. This is a great recovery from the last few weeks of December, when markets witnessed a downtrend amid Powell’s hawkish comments.
Source: Hashdex Research with data from CF Benchmarks and Bloomberg (from December 31, 2024 to January 05, 2025).
The first week of 2025 was positive for crypto, with the NCI™ increasing by 6.6%. Such performance could be attributed to new money inflows in wake cheaper price points, after a mild correction.
Source: Hashdex Research with data from Messari (from December 29, 2024 to January 05, 2025).
Indices tracked by Hashdex
Source: Hashdex Research with data from CF Benchmarks and Vinter (from January 05, 2024 to January 05, 2025).
- Will liquidity continue driving Bitcoin’s price? Bitcoin’s relationship with M2 money supply.
- The evolution of Bitcoin from a fiat-alternative to an emerging store of value.
- Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade is poised to improve staking, blockchain efficiency, and scalability.
Will liquidity continue driving Bitcoin’s price?
Bitcoin has historically tracked global liquidity, with a 0.94 correlation to M2 money supply. But with inflation concerns, rate cut uncertainty, and geopolitical risks, could Bitcoin decouple? As adoption rises and strategic reserves grow, Bitcoin’s relationship with liquidity may be shifting. Here’s what you need to know.
The Full Story
The evolution of Bitcoin from fiat-alternative to emerging store of value
Originally designed as a decentralized payment system, Bitcoin has evolved into a global store of value, often called “digital gold.” By solving the double-spending problem and enabling secure, borderless transactions, Bitcoin has reshaped finance. Here’s how its role continues to evolve.
The Full Story
Pectra upgrade: improving Ethereum’s efficiency
Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade, set to launch later this year, introduces 11 key improvements enhancing staking, scalability, and user experience. From faster validator activations and cheaper Layer 2 transactions to gas fee flexibility, Pectra is highly anticipated to boost Ethereum’s efficiency. How will these upgrades shape Ethereum’s future?
The Full Story
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
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