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Markets whipsaw between hawkish Fed and softer data

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Markets whipsaw between hawkish Fed and softer data Commodities: Gold under pressure after 2015 rate hike odds stacked at 50/50.

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly – Markets whipsaw between hawkish Fed and softer data

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Highlights

•  Commodities: Gold under pressure after 2015 rate hike odds stacked at 50/50.
•  Equities: Change in Fed’s tone sees choppy trading week for global stocks.
•  Currencies: Hawkish Fed raises the prospect of a 2015 rate hike.
•  Upcoming webinar: Global commodities, have we reached the floor in prices?

Asian stocks have opened on a weaker footing after official data highlighted contraction in China’s manufacturing sector continuing through October. Although the factory activity came in higher than the previous month at 48.3, the reading remains below 50 dampening hopes of an expansion and renewing concerns of a slowdown in the world’s second largest economy. The release of the figures saw oil come under pressure. As US policy makers continue to eye December as a possible lift-off date, the October jobs report will provide further clues on the trajectory of interest rates. This week central banks in UK and Australia will announce their key interest rate decision.

Commodities

Gold under pressure after 2015 rate hike odds stacked at 50/50. Gold slid to $1134 last week hitting its lowest level in four weeks after the Federal Reserve concluded its last meeting on an unexpectedly hawkish note, bolstering the US dollar. Silver declined to $15.5 tracking gold lower. Wheat posted its biggest weekly gain in four months rising 6.4% as weather concerns in Ukraine, Russia and Australia continue to remain supportive of the price. Concerns are lingering over the quality of the wheat crop in Australia that is forecast to receive heavy rain in the days ahead. In addition better than expected export sales reported by the US department of Agriculture (USDA) improved the demand outlook for wheat. The ninth consecutive week of decline in the US oil rig count helped WTI crude and Brent oil rise rally 4.5% and 3.3% respectively.

Equities

Change in Fed’s tone sees choppy trading week for global stocks. Global stocks traded higher after the Federal Reserve softened their stance towards global financial risks and hinted at the possibility of a 2015 rate hike at the December meeting. However a lacklustre Q3 earnings season coupled with weaker US GDP data and falling consumer confidence forced markets to concede most of their gains last week. Eurozone and German inflation climbed out of negative territory and consumer confidence rose unexpectedly. In the US Exxonmobil and Chevron emerged as the latest victims of declining oil and gas prices, reporting a 63% and 47% drop in earnings per share for the third quarter while downstream operations rose. In Europe, Royal Dutch Shell announced its worst loss in 16 years.

Currencies

Hawkish Fed raises the prospect of a 2015 rate hike. The greenback rose sharply after the Federal open market committee (FOMC) meeting but retraced all its gains after a slew of weak US economic data. The October jobs report is now all the more import as guide for a December lift off by the highly data dependent Fed. Sweden’s Riksbank left its key rate unchanged but expanded the QE bond buying program by another SEK 65bn. The New Zealand central bank hinted at rate cuts ahead but opted to leave rates unchanged. The Chinese Yuan posted its largest one-day gain in 10 years on speculation the central bank would introduce reforms to foster yuan denominated trading to foreign firms. The 1% rise in Japanese industrial production after a 1.2% contraction in the previous month strengthened the Bank of Japan’s case to keep policy unchanged helping the Yen trade higher. The Aussie dollar remained lower after a weaker inflation reading raised hopes of a rate cut this week.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

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IFLX ETF är en aktivt förvaltad räntefond

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iShares EUR Flexible Income Bond Active UCITS ETF EUR (Dist) (IFLX ETF) med ISIN IE000NHAIBN0, är en aktivt förvaltad börshandlad fond.

iShares EUR Flexible Income Bond Active UCITS ETF EUR (Dist) (IFLX ETF) med ISIN IE000NHAIBN0, är en aktivt förvaltad börshandlad fond.

Den börshandlade fonden investerar i obligationer utgivna av regeringar, överstatliga organisationer och företag från hela världen. Alla löptider är representerade. ETFen täcker obligationer med både investeringsgrad och sub-investment grade.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,40% p.a. Ränteintäkterna (kupongerna) i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (Kvartalsvis).

iShares EUR Flexible Income Bond Active UCITS ETF EUR (Dist) är en liten ETF med tillgångar på 54 miljoner euro under förvaltning. ETF lanserades den 13 februari 2025 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Varför IFLX?

  1. Fonden förvaltas aktivt.
  2. Fondens basvaluta är euro och kommer att investera i räntebärande värdepapper inklusive: fast ränta, rörlig ränta, inflationsbunden, investment grade, icke-investment grade och orankade värdepapper utgivna av regeringar, statliga myndigheter, företag och överstatliga företag över hela världen, inklusive på tillväxtmarknader.
  3. Investeringsförvaltaren kan välja fondens investeringar utan hänvisning till ett jämförelseindex.

Investeringsmål

Fonden förvaltas aktivt och strävar efter att maximera intäkterna genom att primärt investera i skulder och inkomstbringande värdepapper samtidigt som man strävar efter att upprätthålla en långsiktig kapitaltillväxt.

Handa IFLX ETF

iShares EUR Flexible Income Bond Active UCITS ETF EUR (Dist) (IFLX ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och Euronext Amsterdam.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel  Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
Euronext AmsterdamEURIFLX
SIX Swiss ExchangeEURIFLX
XETRAEURIFLX

Största innehav

BörsVikt %
MORGAN STANLEY1,11
BAYER AG1,06
STONEGATE PUB COMPANY FINANCING 2019 PLC1,04
UBS GROUP AG1,00
VIRGIN MEDIA O2 VENDOR FINANCING NOTES V DAC0,99
SANCF_20-1-D0,96
ARINI_4X-A0,93
BANK OF AMERICA CORP0,93
HNLY_10X-A0,93
CORDA_25X-B10,93

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WEL8 ETF är en satsning på globala finansföretag

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Amundi S&P Global Financials ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) (WEL8 ETF) med ISIN IE000ENYES77, försöker följa S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Financials-index. S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Financials-index spårar stora och medelstora företag från finanssektorn. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning).

Amundi S&P Global Financials ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) (WEL8 ETF) med ISIN IE000ENYES77, försöker följa S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Financials-index. S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Financials-index spårar stora och medelstora företag från finanssektorn. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning).

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,18 % p.a. Amundi S&P Global Financials ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) är den billigaste ETF som följer S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Financials index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (Årligen).

Amundi S&P Global Financials ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 2 miljoner euro under förvaltning. ETFen lanserades den 20 september 2022 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Investeringsmål

AMUNDI S&P GLOBAL FINANCIALS ESG UCITS ETF DR – EUR (D) försöker replikera, så nära som möjligt, resultatet av S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Financials Index (Netto Total return index). Denna ETF har exponering mot stora och medelstora företag i utvecklade länder. Den innehåller uteslutningskriterier för tobak, kontroversiella vapen, civila och militära handeldvapen, termiskt kol, olja och gas (inkl. Arctic Oil & Gas), oljesand, skiffergas. Den är också utformad för att välja ut och omvikta företag för att tillsammans förbättra hållbarhet och ESG-profiler, uppfylla miljömål och minska koldioxidavtrycket.

Handla WEL8 ETF

Amundi S&P Global Financials ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) (WEL8 ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEURWELY
XETRAUSDWEL8
XETRAEURWELY

Största innehav

Denna fond använder fysisk replikering för att spåra indexets prestanda.

NamnValutaVikt %Sektor
JPMORGAN CHASE & COUSD6.31 %Finans
VISA INC-CLASS A SHARESUSD5.15 %Finans
MASTERCARD INC-CL AUSD4.41 %Finans
BANK OF AMERICA CORPUSD3.18 %Finans
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIAAUD1.86 %Finans
S&P GLOBAL INCUSD1.85 %Finans
HSBC HLDGING PLC GBPGBP1.82 %Finans
ROYAL BANK OF CANADA CADCAD1.78 %Finans
MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUPJPY1.61 %Finans
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCUSD1.57 %Finans

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Tariffs spark turmoil: BTC holds its ground

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President Trump announced a highly aggressive tariff package—one with broad macroeconomic implications—and global markets reacted sharply. In this environment of heightened volatility, we urge investors to maintain perspective, just as they should when prices are volatile to the upside (e.g., last year’s post-election rally).

President Trump announced a highly aggressive tariff package—one with broad macroeconomic implications—and global markets reacted sharply. In this environment of heightened volatility, we urge investors to maintain perspective, just as they should when prices are volatile to the upside (e.g., last year’s post-election rally).

Notably, since the election, bitcoin and the Nasdaq Crypto Index have outperformed gold, the S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100. Even in the wake of the tariffs, only gold has outpaced bitcoin and the NCI—highlighting the relative strength of digital assets amid global market declines.

Market Highlights

Stablecoin legislation advances in US

The House Financial Services Committee voted to advance a monumental bill to regulate stablecoins, the STABLE Act, following the Senate Banking Committee approval of similar legislation earlier this year.

President Trump has said he wants stablecoin legislation approved by Congress before its August recess, reinforcing the new administration’s focus on establishing clear crypto regulation.

Tokenized fund sets dividend benchmark

BlackRock’s BUIDL paid an estimated $4.17 million in monthly dividends during March.

This highlights the potential of crypto to create attractive investment instruments, such as tokenized funds, which stood out this month paying massive dividends and setting a new benchmark for the class.

SEC chair orders review of crypto guidance

Acting SEC Chair Mark T. Uyeda ordered a review of past staff guidance on crypto, including risk warnings and interpretations of the Howey test.

This move, like others before, signals a broader shift toward a more open regulatory approach, potentially strengthening the presence of bitcoin and other digital assets in the US in the near future.

Market Metrics

The NCITM constituents had another negative week, with only XRP (-7.0%) and BTC (-3.8%) avoiding double-digit losses. The overall NCITM decline of -5.2% was cushioned by BTC’s relative resilience, as it performed better as a store-of-value asset. However, the drop still reflects a broader risk-off sentiment across all markets, driven by Trump’s tariff policies and growing macroeconomic uncertainties that are prompting investors to reassess their positions.

This week, the NCITM fell -5.3%, narrowing the gap with traditional indices such as the Nasdaq 100 (-9.8%) and S&P 500 (-9.1%) which experienced sharper losses following Trump’s tariff announcements. BTC (-3.8%) performed similarly to gold (-3.3%), though gold remains the top-performing asset class year-to-date. The week reinforced the risk-off sentiment, with investors broadly retreating from risk assets. Still, it also highlighted crypto’s growing relevance, as the most volatile asset class managed to outperform traditional markets in a stressed environment.

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