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Gold’s fair value at US$1440 as uncertainty reigns
Gold’s fair value at US$1440 as uncertainty reigns. The US Dollar, Yen, the Swiss Franc and gold have all been beneficiaries of investors seeking haven asset as Britain’s decision to leave the EU has left the world in shock. We believe prolonged uncertainty will keep demand for defensive assets elevated. Gold’s fair value at US$1440 as uncertainty reigns
Net speculative futures market positioning in gold had already risen to all-time high before the “Brexit” vote and we suspect positioning has moved considerably higher in recent days (data only available weekly with delay). Net speculative positioning hit a record high of 316,525 long contracts last Tuesday, far above the 289,250 net longs hit during the worst of Greek sovereign crisis and considerably above the 83,000 contract average since beginning of the series.
Given the lack of clarity about the future course of the UK’s relationship with the EU or other countries, we expect market uncertainty to keep demand for gold strong for some time and that will be reflected in elevated speculative positioning. Analysts will struggle to assess the impact of Brexit until Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty is invoked and it could take up to two years after that point for the UK to formally leave.
The US Dollar basket (DXY) has risen by close to 4% since the announcement of Brexit. We believe that it could rise further as investors look for haven assets. We also assume the US Federal Reserve will at some point in the coming year raise interest rates (on the assumption that Brexit contagion to the real economy of the US is limited).
While US Dollar appreciation is usually gold price-negative, the rise in haven demand is often more price-positive. Indeed we have seen over the past few days that gold and the US Dollar have both risen.
Given the heightened uncertainty about how events will unfold, we present some scenarios for gold prices. We use our proprietary gold model that we presented in “Policy mistakes provide upside potential for gold” and vary the assumptions on US Dollar movements and level of speculative positioning (presented above). We assume that US inflation will hover around 1.1% (around current levels), based on 1yr-1yr break-evens and nominal 10 year Treasury rates will also remain around current levels even if policy rates rise (we assume a bond curve flattening rather than a shift).
Using our central assumptions, for example a modest US Dollar appreciation of 5% and speculative positioning remaining elevated, but moderating to 200,000 contracts, gold is likely to trade around US$1440/oz by June 2017. In the absence of any US Dollar appreciation, gold could trade closer to US$1500/oz.
Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities
Nitesh is a Commodities Strategist at ETF Securities. Nitesh has 13 years of experience as an economist and strategist, covering a wide range of markets and asset classes. Prior to joining ETF Securities, Nitesh was an economist covering the European structured finance markets at Moody’s Investors Service and was a member of Moody’s global macroeconomics team. Before that he was an economist at the Pension Protection Fund and an equity strategist at Decision Economics. He started his career at HSBC Investment Bank. Nitesh holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics from the London School of Economics and a Master of Arts in International Economics and Finance from Brandeis University (USA).
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Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
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Mar.25 crypto update, Research commentary on market turmoil, CIO Notes and ETP performance attribution
A – Research commentaries from last week developments
- Markets reacted to Trump tariffs – Bitcoin stands
Global markets fell sharply after President Trump’s new 25% tariffs on Chinese imports. Stocks led the decline – the Nasdaq 100 is now down -14% since the election, and the S&P 500 -12.3%. Crypto reacted too, but not uniformly:
• Altcoins such as SOL and ETH were hit hardest (down over 30% since November)
• Bitcoin and the Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) showed resilience, gaining +14.3% and +9.3%, respectively since Election
This kind of selloff tends to erase diversification — everything moves together. But it’s essential to take a longer view:
• Since Trump’s election, only three assets have consistently outperformed: Bitcoin, NCI, and gold.
• Last week, only gold outpaced BTC, confirming the role of digital assets as a strategic long-term allocation — even in volatile regimes.
- Regulatory tailwinds are building
The next phase of crypto decoupling could come from policy. In the US, the signals are turning positive:
• The STABLE Act advanced in Congress, with Trump urging swift approval
• A tokenized fund paid $4.17M in dividends last month, proving blockchain’s real-world income potential
• The SEC has launched a review of past crypto guidance — a move toward clearer rules and broader institutional comfort
Bottom line: In a week where most assets fell, crypto stood out. That’s not a coincidence — it’s a signal.
B – CIO Monthly Notes – Crypto’s Political Tailwinds Are Blowing Hard
• Following a week in Washington, our CIO outlines how crypto is gaining bipartisan traction in DC.
• Key takeaway: regulatory clarity is coming faster than expected, and institutions are taking note.
C – March 2025 ETP performance overview
As of 31/03/25 – Source: Hashdex and Bloomberg. Performances in USD.
Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HASH / HDX1) : March: -4.5% | YTD: -19%
Key drivers in March: Bitcoin and Ethereum
March Performance Attribution:
Hashdex Crypto Momentum Factor ETP (HAMO / HDXM): March: -8.5% | YTD: -22%
Key drivers in March: Litecoin, Ethereum and Solana
March Performance Attribution:
Hashdex Multi-Crypto Index ETPs
Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HASH)
• Broad exposure to BTC, ETH, and major altcoins (SOL, XRP, ADA, etc)
• Quarterly rebalancing – evolutive, market cap-based allocation with no caps (weights and number of constituents)
• Largest crypto index ETP in Europe (+$300m AUM)
• ISIN: CH1184151731 | Tickers: HASH (SIX, Euronext) / HDX1 (Xetra)
• Tradable in USD, EUR, CHF, GBP
• Factsheet / Product page / Index Methodology
Hashdex Crypto Momentum Factor ETP (HAMO/HDXM )
• Momentum-based strategy with monthly rebalancing
• Designed to capture trends across large-cap crypto assets
• ISIN: CH1218734544 | Tickers: HAMO (SIX, Euronext) / HDXM (Xetra)
• Tradable in USD, EUR, CHF, GBP
• Factsheet / Product page / Index Methodology
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Mar.25 crypto update, Research commentary on market turmoil, CIO Notes and ETP performance attribution
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