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Gold Seesaws Between Dovish Fed and Upbeat Jobs Report
Commodity ETP Weekly – Gold Seesaws Between Dovish Fed and Upbeat Jobs Report
- Positive inflows into Gold ETPs resume after dovish comments by Fed Chair Yellen helped gold post its highest (16.1%) quarterly rise in 30 years. However the positive beat in payrolls might see a reversal in trend.
- Declining US crude oil production helps reverse four consecutive weeks of outflows as investors plough into WTI crude oil ETPs.
- Fall in production in world’s largest copper mining producer help revive inflows into copper ETPs.
Dovish comments by Fed chair Yellen help revive positive inflows into gold ETPs. Gold prices caught a fresh bid after a more cautious policy trajectory was inferred from Fed chair Yellen’s comments early in the week boosting inflows into gold ETPs by $96.7mn. Furthermore the Fed Chair remained unsure of the durability of the recent spike in inflation reinforcing a more gradual rate normalization path in the US. However we believe the positive beat in payrolls data provides evidence of economic resilience that could allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more often than projected, thereby avoiding a policy error. Silver ETPs also benefited in Gold’s slipstream recording inflows for the 6th consecutive week worth $9.2mn.
Energy ETPs attract strong inflows, led by WTI crude oil. After four consecutive weeks of outflows, WTI crude oil ETPs received positive inflows worth $19.9mn. This is reflective of declining US crude oil production for the fourth month in a row. We expect this decline to continue since drilling activity has been lacklustre with 30% active oil rigs idled over the past 14 weeks. On the other hand oil production by OPEC has risen by 100,000 barrels per day in March owing to Iran and Iraq. The pre-condition laid out by Saudi Arabia to freeze output subject to Iran and other major producers following suit is casting doubts on the ability of these nations to reach an agreement at the next Doha meeting scheduled on April 17. We expect oil prices to trade a volatile range on the back of acrimonious decision making over the capping of oil production limits by OPEC though declining US oil production may help alleviate sharp price drops.
Copper ETPs attract $10.2mn of inflows amid declining production in Chile. According to data from Chile’s (the world’s largest copper mining producer) National Statistics Institute (INE), about 450,000 tons of copper were produced in February, marking a 7% decline in production for the first two months of the year.
Coffee ETPs garner $5.7mn inflows on the back of dry weather conditions. The probability of a deficit in the coffee crop is becoming increasingly likely due to the ongoing dry conditions in Vietnam, Columbia and parts of Brazil. Interestingly the recent appreciation of the producer’s currencies against the US dollar is providing some relief to the pricing pressure faced in the international market however there is no assurance of how long this could last.
Key events to watch this week. Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI) for the US, China and UK this week will offer further signs of a slowdown in the services sector. After setting the stage for a more gradual rate normalization path by Fed chair Yellen, investors will focus on the minutes of the March meeting on Wednesday for clues on the timing of the next rate rise. While Thursday sees the unveiling of the minutes of the ECBs March meeting.
Video Presentation
Aneeka Gupta, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
For more information contact
ETF Securities Research team
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Since U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on April 2, termed ”Liberation Day,” global markets have experienced significant volatility. The S&P 500 shed $5.83 trillion in market value over just four days, marking its steepest drop since the 1950s. Asian markets saw their worst session since 2008, reflecting widespread fears of an economic slowdown.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yields initially fell below 4% as investors sought safety, but by April 8-9, they surged to a seven-week high of 4.515%. This spike, driven by bond market sell-offs potentially from basis trading or China’s strategic moves to pressure U.S. negotiations, suggests a precarious economic situation rather than risk-on sentiment.
On April 9, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries (excluding China, where tariffs jumped to 145%) in an effort to give markets time to absorb the changes and calm volatility. The move sparked a broad rally, with the S&P 500 surging 9.5% for its best day since 2008 and Bitcoin rebounding above $80,000 after a turbulent stretch.
Bitcoin is macro now
Despite persistent concerns about crypto volatility, Bitcoin’s price over the past two weeks has closely mirrored the S&P 500 and has actually been less volatile. This alignment reflects Bitcoin’s growing maturity as an asset class and highlights its resilience. As a highly liquid and accessible asset, it continues to attract investors looking for relative value in turbulent markets.
Sentiment shifts toward crypto ETFs
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $700 million in outflows, while Ethereum ETFs lost $400 million since March, marking a sharp reversal after nine consecutive months of inflows. The pullback points to growing institutional caution amid broader macro uncertainty. Still, on-chain data reveals that long-term holders have been steadily accumulating since January lows, signaling continued confidence in the asset class.
Macroeconomic uncertainty takes center stage
The latest U.S. CPI print came in at 2.4%, which was lower than expected. A rate cut in May still seems premature as markets assess the full impact of new protectionist measures. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has warned that tariffs could raise inflation while slowing growth. As a result, the probability of three rate cuts in 2025 now exceeds 60%. Declining yields may be an early signal of future monetary easing, which could favor risk assets like crypto if economic pressures intensify.
Bitcoin: Dollar’s ally or alternative?
In the face of policy uncertainty, the debate around the U.S. dollar’s reserve currency status is gaining momentum. With its decentralized and censorship-resistant design, Bitcoin is emerging as both a potential complement and challenger to the dollar, especially as the U.S. increasingly wields its currency as a geopolitical tool through tariffs and sanctions.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain solid. Hashrate is at all-time highs, regulatory clarity is improving, and long-term holders continue to accumulate. With prices consolidating above $80K, the current correction may offer a strategic opportunity for investors positioning for the next leg of growth, particularly as the macro picture evolves.
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
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