Nyheter
Gold ETPs Attract Inflows as Hawkish FED Prompts Correction
Highlights Gold ETPs Attract Inflows as Hawkish FED Prompts Correction
- Gold ETPs Attract Inflows as Hawkish FED Prompts Correction Inflows into gold ETPs reach seven week high as price falls below US$1,200oz.
- Long oil ETPs continue to see inflows as low prices attract bargain hunters.
- ETFS Nickel (NICK) records US$8.1mn of inflows as investors deem recent sell-off overdone.
- ETFS Soybeans (SOYB) sees the biggest inflows in over 2 years as US railroad jams slowed deliveries.
Although the end of the Fed’s bond-buying programme was widely anticipated, commodity prices reacted strongly on the news, with gold falling below the US$1,200oz threshold and silver trading below US$16oz. Unsurprisingly, ETP investors considered the correction as an opportunity to increase their gold holdings, with inflows into gold ETPs reaching a 7-week high. With many commodities trading so close to their marginal cost of production, we believe that prices cannot fall much lower without triggering a supply response.
Inflows into gold ETPs reach seven week high as price falls below US$1,200oz
Long gold ETPs saw US$30mn of inflows last week, bringing the total inflows for the month to US$80mn. A surprisingly hawkish FOMC meeting on Wednesday prompted a correction in the gold price, which fell below the US$1,200 threshold. The Federal Reserve ended its monthly bond purchase program last week, dismissing current market volatility as transitory and focused on an improving labour market. Investors bought on the correction.
Long oil ETPs continue to see inflows as low prices attract bargain hunters.
Weak global demand for oil and distillates combined with ample global supply of crude sent both Brent and WTI prices to the lowest since November 2010 for Brent and June 2012 for WTI. While OPEC has historically played a fundamental role in keeping oil prices above US$100, OPEC members entered a price war in October, selling their oil at a discount in order to increase market share in Asia, putting further downward pressure on both oil benchmarks. According to OPEC’s Secretary General, US shale oil producers will be the most hurt by persistently low oil prices while OPEC will be broadly unaffected. While the IEA has indicated that most oil produced is still economic at US$80/barrel, the key to greater support in oil prices lies with OPEC.
ETFS Nickel (NICK) records US$8.1mn of inflows as investors deem recent sell-off overdone
This is the largest inflow since July 2014. Nickel price is currently trading at a 15% discount to its marginal cost of production. While in the short-term companies and mines can continue to produce even if prices are trading below marginal costs, it is not sustainable in the long term. Elevated inventories and fears of a slowdown in China’s demand have weighed on prices recently. However, demand for stainless steel, the largest market for refined nickel, has picked up substantially in 2014 and we expect nickel stockpiles will start to reduce in coming months. At the same time, profit taking prompted US$7mn of outflows from long copper ETPs as the price increased over 4% from the October lows.
ETFS Soybeans (SOYB) sees the biggest inflows in over 2 years as US railroad jams slowed deliveries
70% of the crop has already been harvested and it is waiting to be delivered but insufficient transport capacity is delaying the process. Soybean prices rose over 3% on the news. While the International Grain Organisation revised its crop expectations for the 2014/2015 season down due to delayed planting in South America, it still anticipates a record crop next year. With grains priced for perfect growing conditions, any small setback in weather in major producing countries or hiccup during the harvesting process could drive a price rally.
Key events to watch this week
This week the focus will once again be on monetary policy, with Bank of England and the European Central Bank holding their monthly meetings this week. While no changes are expected, it will be interesting to gather the BOE and ECB’s assessment of the strength of their economies.
Video Presentation
Simona Gambarini, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
Important Information
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.
Dogecoin has outperformed other major cryptoassets over the past decade, while also exhibiting a low correlation to crypto and traditional assets. This creates a compelling argument for a portfolio allocation. We tested a Bitcoin-enhanced growth portfolio, which is a traditional 60/40 infused with 3% Bitcoin, and we introduced a modest 1% DOGE allocation. Since most prospective investors likely already hold Bitcoin, this offers a lens into how the two assets can complement each other.
Despite the small portfolio allocation, every approach delivered stronger returns. The benchmark returned 7.25% annually, while DOGE-enhanced portfolios reached as high as 8.95%. Sharpe ratios improved in almost all tests, indicating better risk-adjusted returns. Volatility did slightly tick up, but drawdowns remained largely contained. Even with no rebalancing, the max drawdown only deepened by a few percentage points, underscoring that even a 1% DOGE allocation adds meaningful punch without destabilizing the broader portfolio.
Rebalancing remains essential to capturing upside effectively. Without it, returns can plateau while risk quietly compounds. Monthly or weekly rebalancing offered the best balance, maximizing returns while keeping volatility and drawdowns in check, especially during periods of broader market stress, as we’ve recently seen. Given Dogecoin’s momentum-driven nature, a more strategic approach linked to broader crypto market cycles may offer even greater optimization beyond routine rebalancing.
With the right structure, a 1% allocation to Dogecoin isn’t reckless—it’s rewarding.
Bear Case
Despite strong fundamentals and a rich cultural legacy, Dogecoin’s recent rally, fueled by post-election memecoin mania, may have front-run its true cycle potential. As attention shifts to newer narratives, DOGE risks being seen as ’yesterday’s play,’ potentially underperforming even in a rising market. Still, that wouldn’t signal a flaw in its model, just a pause in a fast-rotating cycle.
Assuming a continued 10% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) from its 2021 peak of $0.73, DOGE would be projected to land around $0.38 by 2025—still more than 2x from today’s levels but modest relative to past cycles. More notably, this would mark the first time Dogecoin fails to reach a new all-time high in a full market cycle.
Neutral Case
Dogecoin may not dominate headlines like it did at its peak, but it still holds cultural relevance and widespread recognition. In a scenario where the total crypto market cap peaks at $5 trillion this cycle and DOGE maintains a solid, albeit slightly reduced, market share of 3% instead of its previous 4%, this would result in a market capitalization of approximately $150 billion for DOGE.
At that valuation, DOGE would trade near $1 per coin, a ~5.5x gain from current levels around $0.185. This neutral case assumes Dogecoin retains its stature as the leading memecoin, despite increased competition, with stable adoption and renewed retail interest, but without the same euphoria of the last cycle.
Bull Case
If we take DOGE’s bottom price of $0.007 just before the last bull run began and fast-forward two years to the bottom of the current cycle at $0.0585, that move reflects a CAGR of 189%. If DOGE were to mirror this explosive growth, DOGE would reach approximately $1.42.
In this scenario, Dogecoin benefits from renewed memecoin mania, increasing real-world adoption, and stronger interest fueled by regulatory clarity and potential integration with major platforms like Elon Musk’s X. A full return of retail enthusiasm and broad cultural momentum could reestablish DOGE as the breakout asset of the cycle, potentially even doubling its all-time high.
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
SPFT ETF är en global satsning på teknikföretag
Dogecoin in a portfolio: A small 1% allocation has a loud bark!
VBTC ETN spårar priset på kryptovalutan Bitcoin
iShares och Franklin Templeton listar nya ETFer på Xetra
BE28 ETF företagsobligationer med förfall 2028 och inget annat
Fonder som ger exponering mot försvarsindustrin
Crypto Market Risks & Opportunities: Insights on Bybit Hack, Bitcoin, and Institutional Adoption
Warren Buffetts råd om vad man ska göra när börsen kraschar
Montrose storsatsning på ETFer fortsätter – lanserar Sveriges första globala ETF med hävstång
Svenskarna har en ny favorit-ETF
-
Nyheter4 veckor sedanFonder som ger exponering mot försvarsindustrin
-
Nyheter3 veckor sedanCrypto Market Risks & Opportunities: Insights on Bybit Hack, Bitcoin, and Institutional Adoption
-
Nyheter3 veckor sedanWarren Buffetts råd om vad man ska göra när börsen kraschar
-
Nyheter2 veckor sedanMontrose storsatsning på ETFer fortsätter – lanserar Sveriges första globala ETF med hävstång
-
Nyheter3 veckor sedanSvenskarna har en ny favorit-ETF
-
Nyheter4 veckor sedanHANetf lanserar Europa-fokuserad försvars-ETF
-
Nyheter2 veckor sedanMONTLEV, Sveriges första globala ETF med hävstång
-
Nyheter3 veckor sedanFastställd utdelning i MONTDIV mars 2025
