Market’s participants welcomed the lead of Macron in the first round of the French presidential elections. The euro jumped 1.3% and French equities are up 4% led by French banks. We believe the excessively high OAT-Bund yield spreads will continue to tighten gradually as we get closer to the second round of the presidential elections and the Parliamentary elections. Frexit less likely but domestic challenges
As predicted by the recent opinion polls, Macron (Centrist) and Le Pen (Far-right) won the first round with Macron ahead. The election boasts a participation rate estimated at around 77%. Macron won with almost 23.8% of the votes while Le Pen gathered 21.5%. Fillon and the Republicans were defeated with 19.9%, while far-left Mélanchon lost with 19.6%. The centrist Macron gathered 23.8%, while the Right/Far right together gathered 47.4% and the Left/Far left gathered 27.6% as of Sunday 23 April. Despite the fact that the majority of the votes went to the right-wing parties, Republicans’ leaders have already called to vote for Macron at the second round as did President Holland leading the Socialist party, increasing the chance for Macron to win the election. The probability of Macron winning the elections now stands at 62% according to the latest polls. According to Ipsos, 48% of Fillon’s voters will vote for Macron in the second round as well as 62% of Melanchon’s voters and 79% of Socialist Hamon’s voters. Only a minority of far-Left Melanchon’s voters (9%) – sensible to the protectionist economic programme of the far-Right – indicated to switch their votes to Le Pen’s, and only 33% of voters of Fillon – sensible to the security programme of the far-Right – are likely to vote for Le Pen in the second round.
Market’s participants welcomed the news. The French OAT- German Bund yield spreads tighten by 16bps as market’s pricing as Macron winning the elections looks likely with many French political leaders now supporting him in an effort to block the Far-right Le Pen. The euro jumped by 1.26% this morning against the US dollar to 1.0863 and French CAC stocks gained 4% and French banks climbed by 8% in average in the early session, while defensive assets dropped. Gold price declined 1% to US$1271 this morning, while 10-yr Treasury yields rose from 14bps to 2.3%.
After the second round of the presidential elections, the next decisive step for France will be to elect the Parliament in a month and a half from now. While it is almost certain that Marine Le Pen will not get a majority, it is still unclear how Macron will without the help of both the Socialist and Republicans groups. The uncertainty around the ability of Macron to gain a majority of seats in the Parliament to pass on his reforms will likely continue to weigh on the French-German government bond spreads in the next six weeks.
Morgane Delledonne, Fixed Income Strategist at ETF Securities
Morgane Delledonne joined ETF Securities as Fixed Income Strategist in 2016. Morgane has an extensive experience in Monetary policy, Fixed Income Markets and Macroeconomics gained at the French Treasury’s Office in Washington DC and most recently in her role as Macroeconomist and Strategist at Pictet&Cie in Geneva. Morgane holds a Bachelor of Applied Mathematics from the University of Nice Sophia Antipolis (France), a Master of Economics and Finance Engineering and a Master of Economic Diagnosis from the University of Paris Dauphine (France).
En ny krypto-ETN utgivet av 21Shares har varit möjlig att handla på Xetra och Börse Frankfurt sedan i onsdags.
21Shares Bitcoin Ethereum Core ETP erbjuder investerare enkel och effektiv tillgång till prestanda för en kryptokorg bestående av de två kryptovalutorna Bitcoin (BTC) och Ethereum (ETH). Viktningen av de två kryptotillgångarna baseras på deras nuvarande börsvärde och justeras månadsvis. Denna krypto-ETN är 100 procent säkrad av de underliggande tillgångarna BTC och ETH.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETP genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.
Produktutbudet inom Deutsche Börses ETF & ETP-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 378 ETFer, 198 ETCer och 254 ETNer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på mer än €19 miljarder är Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer och ETPer i Europa.
WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend GrowthUCITSETF EUR Hedged Acc (WGRU ETF) med ISIN IE0007M3MLF3, försöker spåra WisdomTree Global Developed Quality Dividend Growth (EUR Hedged)-index. WisdomTree Global Developed Quality Dividend Growth (EUR Hedged)-index spårar utdelningsbetalande aktier på utvecklade marknader med tillväxtegenskaper. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning). Indexet är ett fundamentalt viktat index. Valutasäkrad till euro (EUR).
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,43 % p.a. WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend GrowthUCITSETF EUR Hedged Acc är den enda ETF som följer WisdomTree Global Developed Quality Dividend Growth (EUR Hedged) index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.
WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend GrowthUCITSETF EUR Hedged Acc är en mycket liten ETF med 4 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 20 mars 2023 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Fonden strävar efter att spåra pris- och avkastningsutvecklingen, före avgifter och utgifter, för WisdomTree Global Developed Quality Dividend Growth Index. Andelsklassen strävar efter att leverera exponering mot indexet samtidigt som den neutraliserar exponeringen mot fluktuationer i euron genom att implementera en valutasäkringsmetod. Läs mer om indexet som GGRE är designat för att spåra.
Varför investera?
Få tillgång till högkvalitativa, utdelningsväxande företag från globala utvecklade marknader som uppfyller WisdomTrees ESG-kriterier (environmental, social and governance)
Dra nytta av riskscreening för att utesluta företag baserat på egenutvecklade kvalitet och momentum
Direktavkastning och inkomstpotential kan vara högre än ett börsvärdesindex
Använd som ett komplement till globala högavkastande utdelningsstrategier eller som en ersättning för aktiva tillväxt- eller kvalitetsstrategier med stora bolag
Valutavolatiliteten minimeras genom användning av valutaterminskontrakt
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.
Donald Trump’s return to the White House has forced European leaders to reconsider their defence capabilities. Trump’s administration has stated that it expects European countries to take on a greater role in their own security, as well as giving overt signals that it has less interest in the future of the continent’s security. In a worst-case scenario, there are growing fears about the US’ continued commitment to the NATO alliance. This article will outline the scale of the task ahead for Europe to prepare for a world where it can potentially no longer rely on the US for its security.
Europe alone?
First, it is worth noting that the prospect of a US pullout of NATO remains unlikely. While members of Trump’s cabinet have endorsed a withdrawal, the president himself has not. Key members of Trump’s cabinet such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio appear to remain strong believers in the alliance. Crucially, in 2023, the US Congress passed a law requiring a two-thirds majority vote before any President can withdraw from the alliance. Given the current makeup of Congress, such a vote passing seems unlikely.
However, European leaders are taking the risk seriously. Even if the worst-case scenario of a total US withdrawal from NATO does not come to pass, the prospect can no longer be discounted. At the same time, even if the US continues as a member, there is a growing expectation of Europe to develop its own defence capabilities. There is, therefore, a renewed sense among European leaders that they must develop credible security deterrence in the absence of the US.
What is needed?
A recent analysis by Bruegel and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy provides insights into the measures Europe would need to undertake to deter potential aggression from Russia in the absence of US support. [1]
First, soldiers. Currently, the US has around 100,000 troops stationed on the continent, with NATO military planners assuming an additional 200,000 would be rapidly dispatched to Europe in the event of conflict.
A theoretical absence of US support, therefore, means considering how Europe may replace these 300,000 soldiers. Europe, including the UK, currently has almost 1.5 million active-duty military personnel. In theory, this makes replacing the 300,000 US troops easy enough. However, as analysis by Bruegel notes: “The combat power of 300,000 US troops is substantially greater than the equivalent number of European troops distributed over 29 national armies.”
A crucial weakness of European troops will be fragmentation. A Europe without US support, therefore, is faced with two choices: replace the 300,000 with substantially more soldiers – to offset the fragmented weakness – or rapidly enhance cooperation.
The challenge is also stark when it comes to equipment. The Bruegel analysis claims that preventing a rapid Russian breakthrough in the Baltic states would, at a minimum, require “1,400 tanks, 2,000 infantry fighting vehicles and 700 artillery pieces (155mm howitzers and multiple rocket launchers)”. To put this into perspective, that is more firepower than the French, German, Italian, and British land forces combined. And that is just for providing a credible deterrence in the Baltic states.
European states will also have to invest substantially in developing their own transport, missile, drone, communications, and intelligence capabilities.
Historic underspend
Future-proofing European defence against a potential absence of US support, therefore, is a tremendous task. Achieving anything approaching what is needed to shore up the continent’s defence will cost tremendous sums.
This has been made harder by the underspending on defence among European NATO members over the past few decades. The euphoria of the post-Cold War era saw European governments slash their defence spending. Money that had previously been spent on military security could be reallocated to spending on social security.
With Russia’s first invasion of Ukraine in 2014, NATO took steps to reverse this, principally by setting a defence spending target of 2% of GDP for members. But very few NATO members actually reached this target. As late as 2021, just 6 members of NATO spent 2% or more on defence.
However, as the graph below shows, the number of NATO members hitting the 2% target has rapidly ramped up, with 23 members now hitting the 2% target.
Source: NATO, June 2024. Data excludes the U.S. For illustrative purposes only. Chart displays expected data.
Yet the historic underspending by Europe leaves a hole in European defence capabilities. Figures from Exante Data shows that the cumulative underspend since 2014, relative to the 2% targets, among European NATO members equals €850bn. [2]
The road to 5%
The task for both readying Europe for defence challenges in a world without US support, as well as addressing the historic underfunding of European defence, will require defence spending rising significantly above 2% of GDP.
Currently, European (and Canada) NATO members spend, on average, around 2% of GDP on defence. If NATO ex-USA members were to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP, what would this look like? If certain assumptions are made, we can map out the bullish and bearish scenarios for NATO defence spending.
In our bull case scenario, we assume NATO ex-US defence budgets to increase to 5% of GDP by 2029, while assuming equipment spending as % of total NATO budget growing by 1% per year. It also includes assumptions of GDP growth per year standing at 2%.
In this scenario, equipment expenditure would increase by $350billion, over half the total revenue generated by defence companies in 2023.
Meanwhile, in our bear case scenario, equipment expenditure still grows by almost $100billion over the period. This bear case scenario assumes NATO ex-US defence budgets grow to 3.5% by 2029, with equipment expenditure remaining steady as a percentage of defence spending (31.6%) and GDP growth of 1% per year. This would see additional equipment expenditure increase by $92billion.
Source: NATO, HANetf analysis. Charts display projected data. For illustrative purposes only. Additional sources available upon request.
The Future of Defence
While the complete withdrawal of the US from NATO is a hypothetical scenario, these estimates underscore the significant investments and structural changes Europe would need to implement to maintain a credible defence posture independently.
Future of Defence UCITSETF (ASWC) seeks to provide exposure to the companies generating revenue from NATO and NATO+ ally defence and cyber defence spending. The “NATO screen” seeks to align with the values of investors who may have concerns about defence investing, but cannot ignore the current political climate, and therefore seek a smarter and more considered approach.
NATO is a defensive alliance and itself states that “deterrence and defence is one of its core tasks” – focusing on companies operating in NATO allied countries limits the possibility of constituents of the ETF being companies operating in countries that could one day be adversaries to the alliance.
Key Risks
• Thematic ETFs are exposed to a limited number of sectors and thus the investment will be concentrated and may experience high volatility.
• Investors’ capital is fully at risk and may not get back the amount originally invested.
• Exchange rates can have a positive or negative effect on returns.
• For a complete overview of all the risks, please refer to the “Risk Factors” in the Prospectus.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, SAVR och Avanza.