Financial markets have been roiled by President Trump’s tariff policies, leading to sharp volatility across asset classes. US equities have taken the brunt of it, with the S&P 500 down as much as 20% from its January highs. Bond markets are also unstable, reflecting shifting expectations around 2025 interest rates.
This wave of macroeconomic uncertainty has made it harder to detect underlying investment trends—especially in crypto. Despite its independence from direct government influence, digital assets haven’t been immune to the turbulence. But while volatility has hit traditional markets hard, crypto has once again shown resilience, underpinned by improving fundamentals and a strengthening regulatory backdrop.
What we’ve learned since November
In the wake of President Trump’s election in November, digital assets were hitting all-time highs. But instead of urging investors to chase returns, we warned against getting swept away by the “FOMO” mindset that often happens with investors in this asset class. Our message was simple: stick to your target allocation and avoid overexposure after sharp price increases. This approach is designed to help investors benefit from crypto’s long-term asymmetric potential without succumbing to emotional swings.
Even before the election the Nasdaq Crypto Index™ (NCI™) had already risen nearly 50% for the year (as of October 31, 2024). Trump’s win added fuel to the fire, boosting optimism that US crypto regulation could finally turn a corner. By year-end, the NCI™ had more than doubled, closing with a 105% gain.
That bullish momentum continued into early 2025, driven by post-halving optimism, improving adoption metrics, and the tailwinds of Trump’s return. However, the tariff shock has since erased much of crypto’s post-election gains, reigniting questions about the asset class’s staying power in a chaotic macro environment. While further corrections are possible, we believe this phase represents another one of those important long-term entry points—just as we’ve seen before.
Why fundamentals still matter
It’s important to keep in mind that crypto’s value and price trajectory isn’t driven solely by macro noise. Several key forces are still working in its favor:
• Bitcoin’s 2024 halving has constrained supply, historically a key catalyst for price appreciation.
• Easing US monetary policy has provided a tailwind to risk assets across the board.
• Institutional adoption continues to grow, with more asset managers, banks, and platforms embracing digital assets in portfolios.
But perhaps the most underappreciated catalyst right now is regulatory clarity in the US. The stance toward the industry has shifted significantly. After years of mixed messages and an enforcement-first approach to regulation, US policymakers are now working toward a more coherent and constructive framework for digital assets. For example:
• There’s real momentum in Congress to pass bipartisan legislation around custody, stablecoins, and crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs)—all of which could serve as gateways for broader institutional participation.
• Regulators are seeking input from the industry, recognizing the need for practical and innovation-friendly rules.
• This policy shift isn’t just eliminating noise—it’s a structural tailwind that could accelerate adoption, investment flows, and long-term utility for digital assets.
Even amid the recent pullback, the NCI™ remains up 7.0% since Trump’s election—outperforming most risk assets and second only to gold, which is up 8.7%. In contrast, the broader “Trump rally” has fizzled in traditional markets: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 are both down more than 10% over the same period, weighed down by tariff fears and growth uncertainty.
That divergence highlights a key point: while crypto remains exposed to global macro risks, its relative strength continues to stand out. And as the regulatory and adoption picture improves, the case for long-term crypto allocations is only growing stronger.
Looking ahead: stay disciplined, think long term
With tariffs reshaping global trade and pushing the world toward a more fragmented economic order, crypto’s borderless, decentralized, and politically neutral nature becomes increasingly relevant. It offers a hedge not only against inflation and currency debasement but also against geopolitical dislocation and systemic risk.
The excitement of late 2024 wasn’t a one-off, and neither is the current wave of fear. Crypto’s long-term role in portfolios remains intact. The temptation to react emotionally—whether by chasing peaks or fleeing during corrections—is strong. But discipline, not emotion, is what wins over time.
With regulatory clarity gaining ground and adoption continuing to advance, we believe digital assets are on solid footing—ready not only to weather the current volatility but to emerge stronger as new regulatory clarity, institutional adoption, and use cases unfold in 2025.
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