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Dovish Minutes Increase the Appeal of Bullion
Dovish Minutes Increase the Appeal of Bullion
Uncertainty boosts safe haven demand for bullion.
Third consecutive week of inflows for long silver ETPs.
Largest cumulative rig count drop for twenty years drives inflows into crude.
ETFS Daily Short Natural Gas (SNGA) receives US$9.6mn, the largest inflow since 2011.
Investors increased precious metal exposure last week as Greek debt negotiations and US monetary policy minutes prompted some investor caution. Despite the agreement to extend the Greek bailout last Friday, some details remain unknown. Lack of clarity over the conditions could give cause for investors to remain cautious. Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony to congress will be watched closely this week for any further hints as to the pace of policy normalisation and could therefore be a key influence on the gold price. Crude inflows continued to be strong following a sustained fall in oil rigs, however with US oil stocks building to a record level, gains may be limited.
Uncertainty boosts safe haven demand for bullion. Long physical gold ETPs witnessed US$136.9mn of inflows despite a decline in the price of the underlying. Demand for gold exposure appeared to be stimulated by dovish minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes as officials displayed concerns that a premature rate hike could harm the US labour market recovery in the context of weakness in international markets. Additionally, uncertainty in Europe surrounding the outcome of Greek debt negotiations has helped to buoy gold ETP demand.
Third consecutive week of inflows for long silver ETPs. US$5.8mn flowed into long silver ETPs this week as investors see silver as a means of gaining leveraged exposure to gold. Silver’s correlation to gold remains elevated and it therefore has benefited from ambiguity surrounding the pace of policy normalisation in the US and potential economic impact of a Greek exit from the Eurozone.
Largest cumulative rig count drop for twenty years drives inflows into crude. Long WTI ETPs attracted US$57.6mn of inflows as the Baker Hughes oil rig count fell for the 11th consecutive week representing a 31% decline. This fall has been composed primarily of horizontal oil rigs, leading investors to believe that tightening supply fundamentals as shale producers curtail output, will boost the US crude benchmark. However, this week oil prices have been volatile as prices oscillated intra week, as bearish US crude inventory data contrasted with bullish sentiment.
ETFS Daily Short Natural Gas (SNGA) receives US$9.6mn, the largest inflow since 2011. The natural gas price rallied during the week as heating demand was lifted by colder than average weather in the gas hungry Northeast. Speculation that a bearish inventory report would prompt a turnaround encouraged inflows into SNGA. While natural gas prices have fallen considerably over the last three months as mild temperatures in the US in December and strong shale gas output has left the market well supplied, recent extremely cold weather in parts of the US has resulted in strong gains.
Key events to watch this week. This week investors will closely monitor any revisions made to Q4 GDP data from the US and UK, as both are viewed as the engines driving global economic growth. In addition, investors will be awaiting the reaction of Euro group members to the list of proposed reforms that Greece hopes to undertake in order to secure a four month extension to its bailout. Finally, monetary policy remains in the spotlight as Yellen delivers her semi-annual monetary policy testimony to congress.
Video Presentation
Josh Tiwana, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
Important Information
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.
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Research Newsletter
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Mar.25 crypto update, Research commentary on market turmoil, CIO Notes and ETP performance attribution
A – Research commentaries from last week developments
- Markets reacted to Trump tariffs – Bitcoin stands
Global markets fell sharply after President Trump’s new 25% tariffs on Chinese imports. Stocks led the decline – the Nasdaq 100 is now down -14% since the election, and the S&P 500 -12.3%. Crypto reacted too, but not uniformly:
• Altcoins such as SOL and ETH were hit hardest (down over 30% since November)
• Bitcoin and the Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) showed resilience, gaining +14.3% and +9.3%, respectively since Election
This kind of selloff tends to erase diversification — everything moves together. But it’s essential to take a longer view:
• Since Trump’s election, only three assets have consistently outperformed: Bitcoin, NCI, and gold.
• Last week, only gold outpaced BTC, confirming the role of digital assets as a strategic long-term allocation — even in volatile regimes.
- Regulatory tailwinds are building
The next phase of crypto decoupling could come from policy. In the US, the signals are turning positive:
• The STABLE Act advanced in Congress, with Trump urging swift approval
• A tokenized fund paid $4.17M in dividends last month, proving blockchain’s real-world income potential
• The SEC has launched a review of past crypto guidance — a move toward clearer rules and broader institutional comfort
Bottom line: In a week where most assets fell, crypto stood out. That’s not a coincidence — it’s a signal.
B – CIO Monthly Notes – Crypto’s Political Tailwinds Are Blowing Hard
• Following a week in Washington, our CIO outlines how crypto is gaining bipartisan traction in DC.
• Key takeaway: regulatory clarity is coming faster than expected, and institutions are taking note.
C – March 2025 ETP performance overview
As of 31/03/25 – Source: Hashdex and Bloomberg. Performances in USD.
Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HASH / HDX1) : March: -4.5% | YTD: -19%
Key drivers in March: Bitcoin and Ethereum
March Performance Attribution:
Hashdex Crypto Momentum Factor ETP (HAMO / HDXM): March: -8.5% | YTD: -22%
Key drivers in March: Litecoin, Ethereum and Solana
March Performance Attribution:
Hashdex Multi-Crypto Index ETPs
Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HASH)
• Broad exposure to BTC, ETH, and major altcoins (SOL, XRP, ADA, etc)
• Quarterly rebalancing – evolutive, market cap-based allocation with no caps (weights and number of constituents)
• Largest crypto index ETP in Europe (+$300m AUM)
• ISIN: CH1184151731 | Tickers: HASH (SIX, Euronext) / HDX1 (Xetra)
• Tradable in USD, EUR, CHF, GBP
• Factsheet / Product page / Index Methodology
Hashdex Crypto Momentum Factor ETP (HAMO/HDXM )
• Momentum-based strategy with monthly rebalancing
• Designed to capture trends across large-cap crypto assets
• ISIN: CH1218734544 | Tickers: HAMO (SIX, Euronext) / HDXM (Xetra)
• Tradable in USD, EUR, CHF, GBP
• Factsheet / Product page / Index Methodology
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