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Crypto Outlook 25 + Nov. market update and perf attrib of our ETPs

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Prior to my regular monthly crypto update, I am pleased to share few things today, the day that Bitcoin broke 100k USD!

Prior to my regular monthly crypto update, I am pleased to share few things today, the day that Bitcoin broke 100k USD!

Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index Europe ETP (“HDX1”) has won the Digital Assets ETP of the Year award at the ETF Stream Awards 2024! This prestigious recognition places HASH among the best, celebrating its excellence in the European ETF ecosystem.

In addition, we have published our perspectives and outlook for next year: Hashdex 2025 Crypto Investment Oulook – Into the Mainstream.

In this report you will find valuable insights from our team:

• Crypto´s shot: The plan is to fan this spark into a flame – A note from CEO Marcelo Sampaio

• 2025, the Year of Generalisation: Institutional adoption, regulatory advancements, and a surge in opportunities – Samir Kerbage, CIO

• An Ocean of Opportunities: Growing integration of crypto into traditional finance and the digital economy – Pedro Lapenta, Head of Research

• Bitcoin Takes the Leap: On its way to being recognized as a store of value, with record inflows into ETFs – Lucas Santana, Research Analyst

• The Next ”Killer App” and Blockchain Innovations: Stablecoins, scalability, and decentralized applications – Yuri Alter, Research Analyst

• Macro and Institutional Context: Bitcoin halving, demand shock, and a pro-crypto environment in the United States – João Marco Cunha, Head of Portfolio Management

Happy to organise a call with our Research to discuss further about it and share our views.

Following with our November crypto market update and performance attributions of our Crypto Index ETPs.

One thing to note that we have constantly said: Crypto is more than Bitcoin, thus over the long run we are conviced Index investing is the way to go… In the current environment this crypto index investment case is stronger than ever!

See our Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HDX1) and Hashdex Crypto Momentum Factor ETP (HDXM) vs iShares Bitcoin ETF since the US elections 505/11 to 04/12, source Bloomberg):

Hashdex Crypto Index ETPs: performances (USD) as of end of November 24

Beta Index ETP – Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HASH or HDX1) (largest Crypto Index ETP in Europe): November: +45.7%, YTD +111.62%, 12M +146.42%.

• Smart-Beta Index ETP – Crypto Momentum Index ETP (HAMO or HDXM): November: +62.6%, YTD 70.4%, 12M +127.3%.

Market Update – November 24

November marked a historic month for crypto assets. The Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) closed the month with an unprecedented gain of 45.7%, driven by Bitcoin’s rally to new all-time highs and an even stronger performance from smaller-cap crypto assets. Bitcoin surged 38%, surpassing $75,000 the day after Trump’s victory and nearing $100,000 by the end of the month. This incredible performance signals the market’s optimism toward the election of a pro-crypto government in the U.S.

However, Bitcoin’s performance was only part of the story. Altcoins significantly outperformed, as Trump’s victory was interpreted as a signal for regulatory relief and institutional expansion into crypto. XRP and Cardano led the charge, skyrocketing 274% and 219%, respectively. Other notable performers included Solana (+125%), Ethereum (+65%), and Algorand (+210%), all benefiting from renewed optimism and increased adoption across their ecosystems. These results highlight the widespread rally across different segments of the crypto market, underscoring the depth and breadth of November’s momentum.

Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) relative to other asset class in November 24

Source: Hashdex, as of 30/11/24, HAMO for Crypto Momentum Index, the underlying of HAMO ETP.

In comparison to traditional markets, the NCI’s 45.7% gain dwarfed the returns of the S&P 500 (+4.2%) and Nasdaq 100 (+6.5%), both of which saw solid but comparatively modest growth following the U.S. election. This month’s results highlight the NCI’s capacity to deliver outsized returns during periods of favorable macroeconomic and political conditions.

Performance attribution:

Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI)
The NCI’s exceptional performance in November was broad-based, with every constituent delivering positive returns. While Bitcoin (+38%) anchored the index, smaller assets delivered extraordinary gains. XRP (+274%) and Cardano (+219%) were the standouts, benefiting from the perception of regulatory relief under a pro-crypto administration. Other notable contributors included Solana (+125%), Algorand (+210%), and Ethereum (+65%), reflecting the strength of the altcoin market. They were the real driver of the index’s outperformance.

It is important to highlight the diversification role. In November, the NCI outperformed Bitcoin due to its basket containing other crypto assets that delivered better performance. As such, the index is designed to capture the overall development of the market rather than focusing solely on a single asset.

Source: Hashdex, as of 30/11/24.

Crypto Momentum Factor Index

The Crypto Momentum Factor Index gained an impressive 62.5%, driven by its heavy weighting toward high-performing altcoins. Cardano, Hedera, and Algorand were the top performers, with returns exceeding 200%. TRON (TRX), the largest-weighted asset in the index, rose by 21.9%, providing more modest but steady gains.

Source: Hashdex, as of 30/11/24.

Correlation (3m) to traditional asset classes

Source: Hashdex, as of 30/11/24. NCI for Nasdaq Crypto Index.

Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP

Largest Crypto Index ETP in Europe, AUM ~$630m

ISIN: CH1184151731 / Tickers: HASH (SIX and Euronext) or HDX1 (Xetra) – tradable in USD, EUR, CHF and GBP

Hashdex Crypto Momentum Factor ETP

ISIN: CH1218734544 / Tickers: HAMO (SIX and Euronext) or HDXM (Xetra) – tradable in USD, EUR, CHF and GBP

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INGH ETF är en satsning på global infrastruktur

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iShares Global Infrastructure UCITS ETF GBP Hedged (Acc) (INGH ETF) med ISIN IE000TCZMZM8, försöker följa FTSE Global Core Infrastructure (GBP Hedged)-index. FTSE Global Core Infrastructure (GBP Hedged)-index spårar de största globala infrastrukturaktierna. Valutasäkrad till brittiska pund (GBP).

iShares Global Infrastructure UCITS ETF GBP Hedged (Acc) (INGH ETF) med ISIN IE000TCZMZM8, försöker följa FTSE Global Core Infrastructure (GBP Hedged)-index. FTSE Global Core Infrastructure (GBP Hedged)-index spårar de största globala infrastrukturaktierna. Valutasäkrad till brittiska pund (GBP).

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,70 % p.a. iShares Global Infrastructure UCITS ETF GBP Hedged (Acc) är den enda ETF som följer FTSE Global Core Infrastructure (GBP Hedged)-index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom full replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETF:n ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

iShares Global Infrastructure UCITS ETF GBP Hedged (Acc) är en liten ETF med tillgångar på 23 miljoner GBP under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 28 oktober 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Varför INGH?

  1. Exponering mot de största och mest likvida infrastrukturföretagen över hela världen
  2. Tillgång till infrastrukturföretag från både tillväxtmarknader och utvecklade marknader
  3. exponering mot infrastruktursektorn

Investeringsmål

Fonden strävar efter att följa resultatet för ett index som består av internationella infrastrukturföretag från både utvecklade länder och tillväxtländer.

Indexleverantören har beslutat att avveckla Macquarie Global Infrastructure 100-index från och med den 22 maj 2017, och som ett resultat av detta har fonden beslutat att ersätta detta index med FTSE Global Core Infrastructure Index. Förändringen kommer att återspeglas i benchmarkdata.

Handla INGH ETF

iShares Global Infrastructure UCITS ETF GBP Hedged (Acc) (INGH ETF) är en börshandlad fond (ETF) som handlas på Euronext Amsterdam.

Euronext Amsterdam är en marknad som få svenska banker och nätmäklare erbjuder access till, men DEGIRO gör det.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
London Stock ExchangeGBPINGH

Största innehav

KortnamnNamnSektorVikt (%)ISINValuta
NEENEXTERA ENERGY INCUtilities5,14US65339F1012USD
UNPUNION PACIFIC CORPIndustri5,13US9078181081USD
AMTAMERICAN TOWER REIT CORPReal Estate3,56US03027X1000USD
SOSOUTHERNUtilities3,52US8425871071USD
ENBENBRIDGE INCEnergi3,45CA29250N1050CAD
DUKDUKE ENERGY CORPUtilities3,24US26441C2044USD
WMBWILLIAMS INCEnergi2,58US9694571004USD
CPCANADIAN PACIFIC KANSAS CITY LTDIndustri2,39CA13646K1084CAD
NG.NATIONAL GRID PLCUtilities2,21GB00BDR05C01GBP
OKEONEOK INCEnergi2,17US6826801036USD

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SPFT ETF är en global satsning på teknikföretag

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SPDR MSCI World Technology UCITS ETF (SPFT ETF) med ISIN IE00BYTRRD19, strävar efter att spåra MSCI World Information Technology-index. MSCI World Information Technology-index spårar informationsteknologisektorn på de utvecklade marknaderna över hela världen (GICS-sektorklassificering).

SPDR MSCI World Technology UCITS ETF (SPFT ETF) med ISIN IE00BYTRRD19, strävar efter att spåra MSCI World Information Technology-index. MSCI World Information Technology-index spårar informationsteknologisektorn på de utvecklade marknaderna över hela världen (GICS-sektorklassificering).

ETFENs TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,30 % p.a. SPDR MSCI World Technology UCITS ETF är den billigaste ETF som följer MSCI World Information Technology index. ETF:n replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFEn ackumuleras och återinvesteras i ETFEn.

SPDR MSCI World Technology UCITS ETF är en stor ETF med tillgångar på 709 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 29 april 2016 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Fondens mål

Fondens investeringsmål är att följa resultatet för företag inom tekniksektorn, över utvecklade marknader globalt.

Indexbeskrivning

MSCI World Information Technology 35/20 Capped Index mäter utvecklingen för globala aktier som klassificeras som fallande inom tekniksektorn, enligt Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS).

Handla SPFT ETF

SPDR MSCI World Technology UCITS ETF (SPFT ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEURSS47
Bolsa Mexicana de ValoresMXNWTECN
Borsa ItalianaEURWTEC
Euronext AmsterdamEURWTCH
London Stock ExchangeUSDWTEC
London Stock ExchangeGBPTECW
SIX Swiss ExchangeUSDWTEC
XETRAEURSPFT

Största innehav

VärdepapperVikt %
Apple Inc.18,34%
Microsoft Corporation18,34%
NVIDIA Corporation18,09%
Broadcom Inc.4,29%
ASML Holding NV2,39%
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.1,50%
Adobe Inc.1,44%
Salesforce Inc.1,44%
Oracle Corporation1,33%
QUALCOMM Incorporated1,28%

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Dogecoin in a portfolio: A small 1% allocation has a loud bark!

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Dogecoin has outperformed other major cryptoassets over the past decade, while also exhibiting a low correlation to crypto and traditional assets. This creates a compelling argument for a portfolio allocation. We tested a Bitcoin-enhanced growth portfolio, which is a traditional 60/40 infused with 3% Bitcoin, and we introduced a modest 1% DOGE allocation. Since most prospective investors likely already hold Bitcoin, this offers a lens into how the two assets can complement each other.

Dogecoin has outperformed other major cryptoassets over the past decade, while also exhibiting a low correlation to crypto and traditional assets. This creates a compelling argument for a portfolio allocation. We tested a Bitcoin-enhanced growth portfolio, which is a traditional 60/40 infused with 3% Bitcoin, and we introduced a modest 1% DOGE allocation. Since most prospective investors likely already hold Bitcoin, this offers a lens into how the two assets can complement each other.

Despite the small portfolio allocation, every approach delivered stronger returns. The benchmark returned 7.25% annually, while DOGE-enhanced portfolios reached as high as 8.95%. Sharpe ratios improved in almost all tests, indicating better risk-adjusted returns. Volatility did slightly tick up, but drawdowns remained largely contained. Even with no rebalancing, the max drawdown only deepened by a few percentage points, underscoring that even a 1% DOGE allocation adds meaningful punch without destabilizing the broader portfolio.

Rebalancing remains essential to capturing upside effectively. Without it, returns can plateau while risk quietly compounds. Monthly or weekly rebalancing offered the best balance, maximizing returns while keeping volatility and drawdowns in check, especially during periods of broader market stress, as we’ve recently seen. Given Dogecoin’s momentum-driven nature, a more strategic approach linked to broader crypto market cycles may offer even greater optimization beyond routine rebalancing.

With the right structure, a 1% allocation to Dogecoin isn’t reckless—it’s rewarding.

Bear Case

Despite strong fundamentals and a rich cultural legacy, Dogecoin’s recent rally, fueled by post-election memecoin mania, may have front-run its true cycle potential. As attention shifts to newer narratives, DOGE risks being seen as ’yesterday’s play,’ potentially underperforming even in a rising market. Still, that wouldn’t signal a flaw in its model, just a pause in a fast-rotating cycle.

Assuming a continued 10% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) from its 2021 peak of $0.73, DOGE would be projected to land around $0.38 by 2025—still more than 2x from today’s levels but modest relative to past cycles. More notably, this would mark the first time Dogecoin fails to reach a new all-time high in a full market cycle.

Neutral Case

Dogecoin may not dominate headlines like it did at its peak, but it still holds cultural relevance and widespread recognition. In a scenario where the total crypto market cap peaks at $5 trillion this cycle and DOGE maintains a solid, albeit slightly reduced, market share of 3% instead of its previous 4%, this would result in a market capitalization of approximately $150 billion for DOGE.

At that valuation, DOGE would trade near $1 per coin, a ~5.5x gain from current levels around $0.185. This neutral case assumes Dogecoin retains its stature as the leading memecoin, despite increased competition, with stable adoption and renewed retail interest, but without the same euphoria of the last cycle.

Bull Case

If we take DOGE’s bottom price of $0.007 just before the last bull run began and fast-forward two years to the bottom of the current cycle at $0.0585, that move reflects a CAGR of 189%. If DOGE were to mirror this explosive growth, DOGE would reach approximately $1.42.

In this scenario, Dogecoin benefits from renewed memecoin mania, increasing real-world adoption, and stronger interest fueled by regulatory clarity and potential integration with major platforms like Elon Musk’s X. A full return of retail enthusiasm and broad cultural momentum could reestablish DOGE as the breakout asset of the cycle, potentially even doubling its all-time high.

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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