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Correction potential builds for cotton

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8 år sedan

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27 februari, 2017

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Correction potential builds for cotton Cotton has experienced a strong rebound following years of decline. The rally is supported by a record

Weekly Investment Insights – Correction potential builds for cotton

Highlights

Cotton has experienced a strong rebound following years of decline.
The rally is supported by a record accumulation of speculative positioning and is vulnerable to a pullback.
A more robust supply picture could threaten recent gains as the cotton price trades at resistance levels.

Cotton rebounds

After plunging to seven year lows in late February 2016 cotton prices have staged a considerable rebound (up approximately 39%*) to currently sit at the USc 75.8/lb level. The recovery follows a multi–year decline from 2011 highs of over USc 200/lb as competition from low-cost manmade fibres (such as polyester) resulted in a 78% drop in cotton imports from China. The recent moves have been driven by a cotton market that, according to US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates, looks set to be in deficit for the second year in succession. The relatively strong fundamental situation has been helped by healthy and stable global demand and stalled output from India, historically a key cotton exporter responsible for almost a fifth of global exports. However, cotton prices appear increasingly vulnerable to a reversal from unwinding of record speculative futures positioning and more buoyant supply prospects in coming months, creating a potential attractive opportunity to acquire short exposure to the soft commodity.

Figure 1: Cotton rebounds from nadir

(click to enlarge)

Indian output to normalise

Recent estimates of the 2016/17 cotton market shortfall from the USDA and other organisations have been revised lower as US harvest forecasts have been upwardly adjusted. Some of the tightness in the market last year came from reduced Indian output as less cotton was able to reach the global market due to the government invalidating larger banknote denominations. This created a scarcity in cash and in turn payment problems and delivery delays, leading to what Commerzbank estimate to be 16% less Indian production available to the wider market between October and December last year. Once this issue abates, supply should return and place further pressure on an ever smaller looking cotton market deficit and in turn the cotton futures price.

Stretched positioning and resistance – tomorrow

Speculative long futures positioning towards cotton is currently sitting at a record high, at over double its previous high from August 2013 (when the price was above USc 90/lb), while shorts are half their five year average. This one sided nature of the market leaves the cotton price susceptible to a pullback if sentiment amongst speculators should shift, something that could be spurred by future reports of a more robust supply picture. The price has struggled to sustain a break higher than the USc 75.5/lb level and is likely to face resistance at the early February high of USc 77.4/lb. Should more bearish fundamentals emerge, then the price could fall to its recent low of USc 73/lb or further to its 100 daily moving average of near USc 71.4/lb.

Investors wishing to express the investment views outlined above may consider using the following ETF Securities ETPs:

ETFS Cotton (COTN)
ETFS 2x Daily Long Cotton (LCTO)
ETFS 1x Daily Short Cotton (SCTO)
ETFS EUR Daily Hedged Cotton (ECTN)
Swiss Franc Daily Hedged Cotton (CCTN)

Important Information

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”). The products discussed in this document are issued by ETFS Commodity Securities Limited, ETFS Hedged Commodity Securities Limited and Swiss Commodity Securities Limited (together the ”Issuers”). The Issuers are regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission.

Liknande ämnen:cotton ETF Securities

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Mar.25 crypto update, Research commentary on market turmoil, CIO Notes and ETP performance attribution

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1 minut sedan

den

10 april, 2025

Redaktionen

Mar.25 crypto update, Research commentary on market turmoil, CIO Notes and ETP performance attribution

A – Research commentaries from last week developments

Markets reacted to Trump tariffs – Bitcoin stands

Global markets fell sharply after President Trump’s new 25% tariffs on Chinese imports. Stocks led the decline – the Nasdaq 100 is now down -14% since the election, and the S&P 500 -12.3%. Crypto reacted too, but not uniformly:

• Altcoins such as SOL and ETH were hit hardest (down over 30% since November)

• Bitcoin and the Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) showed resilience, gaining +14.3% and +9.3%, respectively since Election

This kind of selloff tends to erase diversification — everything moves together. But it’s essential to take a longer view:

• Since Trump’s election, only three assets have consistently outperformed: Bitcoin, NCI, and gold.

• Last week, only gold outpaced BTC, confirming the role of digital assets as a strategic long-term allocation — even in volatile regimes.

Regulatory tailwinds are building

The next phase of crypto decoupling could come from policy. In the US, the signals are turning positive:

• The STABLE Act advanced in Congress, with Trump urging swift approval

• A tokenized fund paid $4.17M in dividends last month, proving blockchain’s real-world income potential

• The SEC has launched a review of past crypto guidance — a move toward clearer rules and broader institutional comfort

Bottom line: In a week where most assets fell, crypto stood out. That’s not a coincidence — it’s a signal.

B – CIO Monthly Notes – Crypto’s Political Tailwinds Are Blowing Hard

• Following a week in Washington, our CIO outlines how crypto is gaining bipartisan traction in DC.

• Key takeaway: regulatory clarity is coming faster than expected, and institutions are taking note.

C – March 2025 ETP performance overview

As of 31/03/25 – Source: Hashdex and Bloomberg. Performances in USD.

Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HASH / HDX1) : March: -4.5% | YTD: -19%

Key drivers in March: Bitcoin and Ethereum

March Performance Attribution:

Hashdex Crypto Momentum Factor ETP (HAMO / HDXM): March: -8.5% | YTD: -22%

Key drivers in March: Litecoin, Ethereum and Solana

March Performance Attribution:

Hashdex Multi-Crypto Index ETPs

Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HASH)

• Broad exposure to BTC, ETH, and major altcoins (SOL, XRP, ADA, etc)

• Quarterly rebalancing – evolutive, market cap-based allocation with no caps (weights and number of constituents)

• Largest crypto index ETP in Europe (+$300m AUM)

• ISIN: CH1184151731 | Tickers: HASH (SIX, Euronext) / HDX1 (Xetra)

• Tradable in USD, EUR, CHF, GBP
• Factsheet / Product page / Index Methodology

Hashdex Crypto Momentum Factor ETP (HAMO/HDXM )

• Momentum-based strategy with monthly rebalancing

• Designed to capture trends across large-cap crypto assets

• ISIN: CH1218734544 | Tickers: HAMO (SIX, Euronext) / HDXM (Xetra)

• Tradable in USD, EUR, CHF, GBP

• Factsheet / Product page / Index Methodology

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NXTB ETP spårar värdet på kryptovalutan Bitcoin

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1 timme sedan

den

10 april, 2025

Redaktionen

nxtAssets Bitcoin direct ETP (NXTB ETP) med ISIN DE000NXTA018 är en börshandlad produkt som spårar värdet på kryptovalutan Bitcoin.

Den börshandlade produktens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 1,00 % p.a. Denna ETN replikerar resultatet av det underliggande indexet med en skuldförbindelse med säkerheter som backas upp av fysiska innehav av kryptovalutan.

nxtAssets Bitcoin Direct ETP är en mycket litet ETN med 1 miljon euro tillgångar under förvaltning. Denna ETN lanserades den 18 december 2024 och har sin hemvist i Tyskland.

Om produkten

Med nxtAssets Bitcoin direkt investerar du direkt och säkert i Bitcoin. Varje andel av denna börshandlade produkt (ETP) backas till 100 % upp av fysiskt insatta Bitcoins. Detta säkerställer en korrekt återspegling av prisutvecklingen och ger dig möjligheten att när som helst få dina innehav utbetalda till din personliga plånbok.

Handla NXTB ETP

nxtAssets Bitcoin direct ETP (NXTB ETP) är en europeisk börshandlad kryptovaluta. Denna ETP handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETP genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

Börs	Valuta	Kortnamn
XETRA	EUR	NXTB

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Nya ETF- och ETP-noteringar på Xetra den 8 april 2025

Publicerad

19 timmar sedan

den

9 april, 2025

Redaktionen

ETP-noteringar Amundi EUR Short Term High Yield Corporate Bond ESG UCITS ETF investerar i BB/B-klassade eurodenominerade företagsobligationer. Fonden följer en "bäst-i-klassen"-strategi och väljer företag med de bästa ESG-betygen inom samma sektor.

Amundi EUR Short Term High Yield Corporate Bond ESG UCITS ETF investerar i BB/B-klassade eurodenominerade företagsobligationer. Fonden följer en ”bäst-i-klassen”-strategi och väljer företag med de bästa ESG-betygen inom samma sektor.

Amundi S&P 500 Equal-Weight UCITS ETF spårar resultatet för de 500 största börsnoterade företagen i USA, där varje företag får samma vikt i kvartalsöversynen. ETF:en är tillgänglig för investerare i handelsvalutan euro och US-dollar.

The Future of European Defence UCITS ETF investerar i försvarsföretag som genererar minst 50 procent av sina intäkter från tillverkning och utveckling av militära flygplan, försvarsutrustning eller cybersäkerhetskontrakt med ett NATO+-medlemsland. Endast företag med huvudkontor i ett NATO+-land beaktas, förutom USA.

WisdomTree STOXX Europe Aerospace & Defence 3x Daily Leveraged ETN är en säker seddel som spårar prestanda för STOXX Europe Total Market Aerospace & Defence Index med trippel hävstång. Referensindexet består av företag med huvudkontor i Europa som genererar minst 50 procent av sina intäkter från tillverkning, service, leverans och distribution till flyg- och militärförsvarsindustrin.

Namn	Emittent	ISIN Kortnamn	Avgift	Utdelnings- policy
Amundi EUR Short Term High Yield Corporate Bond ESG UCITS ETF Dist	Amundi	LU1617164998 AHYS (EUR)	0,30%	Utdelande
Amundi S&P 500 Equal-Weight UCITS ETF Acc	Amundi	LU2991918421 EQSP (EUR)	0,20%	Ackumulerande
Amundi S&P 500 Equal-Weight UCITS ETF Acc	Amundi	LU2991918421 EQSU (USD)	0,20%	Ackumulerande
Future of European Defence UCITS ETF	HANetf	IE000I7E6HL0 8RMY (EUR)	0,39%	Ackumulerande
WisdomTree STOXX Europe Aerospace & Defence 3x Daily Leveraged ETN	Wisdom-Tree	XS2872232850 3DEF (EUR)	0,80%	Ackumulerande

Produktutbudet inom Deutsche Börses ETF & ETP-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 402 ETFer, 198 ETCer och 256 ETNer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på mer än €21 miljarder är Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer och ETPer i Europa.

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