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Commodity ETPS see fifth consecutive week of inflows
Commodity ETPS see fifth consecutive week of inflows
Highlights
- ETFS Physical Silver (PHAG) sees $38mn of inflows, the second highest in five months.
- Long copper ETPs see US$19mn of inflows, the highest in 10 weeks as an 8.9% price drop was viewed as buying opportunity.
- ETFS Aluminium (ALUM) sees largest inflows since August 2013.
- ETFS Daily Leveraged Natural Gas (LNGA) saw US$6.2mn of inflows as a 6.0% fall in price attracted buyers.
- Profit-taking drives US$15.2mn out of long platinum ETPs.
- Commodity ETPs saw a fifth consecutive week of inflows, with investors taking advantage of price dips in industrial metals to build long positions.
With the situation in the Ukraine showing few signs of stabilising and economic data from China coming in softer – than – expected, gold and silver prices rose as both metals lived up to their reputation as portfolio diversifiers and insurance assets. Investors tilted their portfolios in favour of silver, likely because of expected leveraged moves relative to the gold price.
ETFS Physical Silver (PHAG) sees $38mn of inflows, the second highest in five months. The strong inflows last week follow on the US $132 mn three weeks ago. Investors are increasingly allocating to silver as it has traditionally outperformed gold when both are rising. So far this year gold has returned 13.6% while silver has returned 8.9%, highlighting the potential for silver to catch up.
Long gold ETPs saw US$67 mn of outflows as some investors chose to take profits on recent price gains. Long copper ETPs see US$19 mn of inflows, the highest in 10 weeks as an 8.9% price drop was viewed as buying opportunity. The main trigger for the price slump was a corporate bond default that raised concerns about a possible unwinding of copper collateralised financing deals that some feared would release copper stockpiles into the market. Weaker than expected China export and growth numbers and a fall in the Chinese Renminbi added to the negative sentiment. Investors appear to looking beyond the near – term turbulence, which has been driven by the government’s efforts to introduce healthy two -way risk into the market. China’s copper demand in fact remains robust. Imports for January and February are up over 40% on a year earlier, with January imports reaching record levels. Demand generally picks up after the end of Q1, and we expect a similar pattern will be followed this year. Although a number of investors expect prices to continue to fall (there were US$5.7mn of inflows into ETFS Daily Short Copper (SCOP) last week as well) more investors appear to see price upside.
ETFS Aluminium (ALUM) sees largest inflows since August 2013. As the Aluminium price fell 3% last week, flows into ETFS aluminium ETPs rose US$9 mn. Investors appear to be looking beyond the lower – than -expected export and production data in China and are focusing on the ore export ban in Indonesia which could crimp China’s production of aluminium given that its smelting facilities are dependent on the low temperature (trihydrate) bauxite which is difficult to get from other sources. Possible Russia export sanctions are also playing a role as Russia is the world’s second largest supplier of the met al.
ETFS Daily Leveraged Natural Gas (LNGA) saw US$6.2mn of inflows as a 6.0% fall in price attracted buyers. However, we continue to believe that demand for gas in spring will be lower and ease the pressure on supplies leading to further price declines.
Profit taking drives US$15.2mn out of long platinum ETPs. The outflows were the largest since September 2013 despite the South Africa mine strike entering its eighth week.
So far the three main producers have lost 499,000 ounces of production according to Bloomberg calculations and the figure is closely approaching the 496,359 ounces of lost output from the 2012. While the rally took a pause last week, it has the potential to continue further as stocks deplete.
Key events to watch this week.
Next week’s FOMC meeting will be the first chaired by Yellen and the market will be attentive to any change in policy signals. Should EU car registration data continue to rise as it has in the past five months, we could have catalyst to platinum group prices which have simply treaded water last week.
Note: All flow and AUM data in this report are based on ETF Securities ETPs to 13 March 2014 and are denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.
Important Information
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.
Dogecoin has outperformed other major cryptoassets over the past decade, while also exhibiting a low correlation to crypto and traditional assets. This creates a compelling argument for a portfolio allocation. We tested a Bitcoin-enhanced growth portfolio, which is a traditional 60/40 infused with 3% Bitcoin, and we introduced a modest 1% DOGE allocation. Since most prospective investors likely already hold Bitcoin, this offers a lens into how the two assets can complement each other.
Despite the small portfolio allocation, every approach delivered stronger returns. The benchmark returned 7.25% annually, while DOGE-enhanced portfolios reached as high as 8.95%. Sharpe ratios improved in almost all tests, indicating better risk-adjusted returns. Volatility did slightly tick up, but drawdowns remained largely contained. Even with no rebalancing, the max drawdown only deepened by a few percentage points, underscoring that even a 1% DOGE allocation adds meaningful punch without destabilizing the broader portfolio.
Rebalancing remains essential to capturing upside effectively. Without it, returns can plateau while risk quietly compounds. Monthly or weekly rebalancing offered the best balance, maximizing returns while keeping volatility and drawdowns in check, especially during periods of broader market stress, as we’ve recently seen. Given Dogecoin’s momentum-driven nature, a more strategic approach linked to broader crypto market cycles may offer even greater optimization beyond routine rebalancing.
With the right structure, a 1% allocation to Dogecoin isn’t reckless—it’s rewarding.
Bear Case
Despite strong fundamentals and a rich cultural legacy, Dogecoin’s recent rally, fueled by post-election memecoin mania, may have front-run its true cycle potential. As attention shifts to newer narratives, DOGE risks being seen as ’yesterday’s play,’ potentially underperforming even in a rising market. Still, that wouldn’t signal a flaw in its model, just a pause in a fast-rotating cycle.
Assuming a continued 10% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) from its 2021 peak of $0.73, DOGE would be projected to land around $0.38 by 2025—still more than 2x from today’s levels but modest relative to past cycles. More notably, this would mark the first time Dogecoin fails to reach a new all-time high in a full market cycle.
Neutral Case
Dogecoin may not dominate headlines like it did at its peak, but it still holds cultural relevance and widespread recognition. In a scenario where the total crypto market cap peaks at $5 trillion this cycle and DOGE maintains a solid, albeit slightly reduced, market share of 3% instead of its previous 4%, this would result in a market capitalization of approximately $150 billion for DOGE.
At that valuation, DOGE would trade near $1 per coin, a ~5.5x gain from current levels around $0.185. This neutral case assumes Dogecoin retains its stature as the leading memecoin, despite increased competition, with stable adoption and renewed retail interest, but without the same euphoria of the last cycle.
Bull Case
If we take DOGE’s bottom price of $0.007 just before the last bull run began and fast-forward two years to the bottom of the current cycle at $0.0585, that move reflects a CAGR of 189%. If DOGE were to mirror this explosive growth, DOGE would reach approximately $1.42.
In this scenario, Dogecoin benefits from renewed memecoin mania, increasing real-world adoption, and stronger interest fueled by regulatory clarity and potential integration with major platforms like Elon Musk’s X. A full return of retail enthusiasm and broad cultural momentum could reestablish DOGE as the breakout asset of the cycle, potentially even doubling its all-time high.
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
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