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Commodity Currencies Come Under Pressure
Trade Idea – Foreign Exchange Commodity Currencies Come Under Pressure. Pausing for a minute to reflect on something else apart from the Greek drama there are some interesting opportunities outside the EUR. Please find below some comments on the Commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NOK and NZD) which are likely to face headwinds in coming months. Pressure is likely to come from a temporary downside correction in oil prices and further easing of monetary conditions by central banks. We believe in the longer term, there is upside to the CAD and NOK unlike AUD and NZD where we believe rates will remain depressed.
Oil Prices to Push CAD & NOK Lower
Commodity Currencies Look Set to Fall
Commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NOK and NZD) are likely to face headwinds in coming months. Pressure is likely to come from a temporary downside correction in oil prices and further easing of monetary conditions by central banks. We believe in the longer term, there is upside to the CAD and NOK unlike AUD and NZD where we believe rates will remain depressed.
CAD & NOK – Oil Price Influence
Last year’s decline in oil prices has yet to dent global oil production. OPEC has kept production stubbornly high in effort to maintain market share, while US shale producers have managed to exploit efficiency gains in order to maintain output levels. The market has taken confidence from the first sign of strength in oil demand and still anticipates production cuts, which in the last few months, have kept oil prices well supported in the US$65-60 range.
Oil Prices to Push CAD & NOK Lower
We believe the rebound in oil prices in the early part of the year was slightly premature and could partially undermine rebalancing in the global oil market. As such we forecast global oil production remaining strong into next year, which is when the impact of announced capital expenditure cuts is likely to stem oil production from conventional sources. This should see oil prices fall further in the short term only to rally in the early part of next year.
In the last few days the Greek debt crisis and negotiations surrounding Iran’s nuclear program has prompted a retraction in oil prices. Investors are expressing concern over the potential impact on oil demand from an increasingly likely “Grexit” scenario and the introduction of Iranian crude onto global markets. Despite the yesterday’s price drop, we still see risks skewed to the downside for crude prices, creating a good opportunity to go tactically short both the CAD and NOK. Lower oil prices are likely to exacerbate growth concerns in both Canada and Norway and could prompt further currency depreciation, particularly against the US Dollar.
The AUD and NZD have both recently depreciated as both nations have witnessed the price of their primary commodity exports decline. In Australia, weak sentiment towards Chinese growth prospects and oversupply has caused the price of coal and iron ore to crumble. Similarly, in New Zealand excess global production and subdued demand has seen dairy prices collapse.
In response, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut benchmark interest rates in an attempt to buoy growth and stabilise falling inflation. Furthermore, in most recent media statements, both institutions have highlighted the importance of further currency devaluation in supporting economic objectives. Thus, we believe that further interest rate cuts could be in store, which makes the medium term outlook for both the AUD and NZD bearish. Given this outlook, we believe investors would likely benefit from acquiring short exposure to both AUD and NZD.
Commodity Export Prices Have Plunged
Investors wishing to express the investment views outlined above may consider using the following ETF Securities ETPs:
Currency ETPs
EUR Base
ETFS Long AUD Short EUR (EUAU)
ETFS Short AUD Long EUR (AUEU)
ETFS Long CAD Short EUR (ECAD)
ETFS Short CAD Long EUR (CADE)
ETFS Long NOK Short EUR (EUNO)
ETFS Short NOK Long EUR (NOEU)
ETFS Long NZD Short EUR (EUNZ)
ETFS Short NZD Long EUR (NZEU)
GBP Base
ETFS Long AUD Short GBP (GBAU)
ETFS Short AUD Long GBP (AUGB)
ETFS Long CAD Short GBP (GBCA)
ETFS Short CAD Long GBP (CAGB)
ETFS Long NOK Short GBP (GBNO)
ETFS Short NOK Long GBP (NOGB)
ETFS Long NZD Short GBP (GBNZ)
ETFS Short NZD Long GBP (NZGB)
USD Base
ETFS Long AUD Short USD (LAUD)
ETFS Short AUD Long USD (SAUD)
ETFS Long CAD Short USD (LCAD)
ETFS Short CAD Long USD (SCAD)
ETFS Long NOK Short USD (LNOK)
ETFS Short NOK Long USD (SNOK)
ETFS Long NZD Short USD (LNZD)
ETFS Short NZD Long USD (SNZD)
3x
ETFS 3x Long AUD Short EUR (EAU3)
ETFS 3x Short AUD Long EUR (AUE3)
ETFS 3x Long CAD Short EUR (ECA3)
ETFS 3x Short CAD Long EUR (CAE3)
ETFS3x Long AUD Short GBP (AUP3)
ETFS 3x Short AUD Long GBP (SAP3)
ETFS 3x Long AUD Short USD (LAU3)
ETFS 3x Short AUD Long USD (SAU3)
5x
ETFS 5x Long AUD Short EUR (EAU5)
ETFS 5x Short AUD Long EUR (AUE5)
ETFS 5x Long CAD Short EUR (ECA5)
ETFS 5x Short CAD Long EUR (CAE5)
Currency Baskets
ETFS Bullish USD vs Commodity Currency Basket Securities (SCOM)
ETFS Bearish USD vs Commodity Currency Basket Securities (LCOM)
Important Information
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”). The products discussed in this document are issued by ETFS Foreign Exchange Limited (“FXL”). FXL is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission.
In a world where financial value is traditionally tied to cash flows, utility, or cutting-edge technology, Dogecoin stands as a bold exception.
Launched in 2013 as a lighthearted experiment, Dogecoin began as a meme, a Shiba Inu with a quirky caption. But over time, it has grown into something far greater: a symbol of internet-native value. What started as a playful jab at the seriousness of finance has become a global phenomenon, proving that in the digital age, emotion, culture, and community can be just as powerful as a balance sheet.
DOGE is an emotion
Dogecoin isn’t your typical crypto asset. It doesn’t boast a groundbreaking protocol or a meticulously engineered roadmap. Instead, it thrives on something more intangible yet undeniably potent: relevance.
Memes are the internet’s lifeblood, serving as carriers of humor, identity, and connection. Dogecoin took this ephemeral currency of the web and turned it into a lasting asset, not by chasing trends but by embedding itself in the fabric of online culture. While most memecoins have flared up and faded away, Dogecoin has endured, evolving into digital folklore that resonates worldwide.
At the core of this phenomenon is Dogecoin’s community: vibrant, irreverent, global, and fiercely loyal—a self-sustaining digital tribe that truly matters in a decentralized world.
Dogecoin’s power is in its people
This community creates attention, which brings liquidity; builds a sense of belonging, which drives retention; and inspires advocacy, which fuels growth. In a world where attention is scarce and sentiment shapes capital flows, this grassroots network isn’t just a feature—it’s the engine.
DOGE’s value lies in its ability to rally people around a shared, lighthearted ethos, turning a meme into a movement that challenges us to rethink what ”value” means in a hyper-connected world.
With that said, let’s meet Dogecoin, the original memecoin that’s rewriting the rules.
Doge is becoming more mainstream
With a jaw-dropping return of over 130,000%, or 127% annualized over the last decade, Dogecoin stands as the best-performing top 25 cryptocurrency of the past 10 years and has rapidly grown into a $30 billion asset embraced by millions.
Fueled by fast, low-cost transactions, a vibrant grassroots community, and growing mainstream acceptance, including from Tesla, AMC, and Newegg, Dogecoin continues to reinforce its retail appeal and real-world utility.
After reaching its all-time high in May 2021, Dogecoin’s network has continued to grow. The total number of wallet addresses has nearly doubled from 44 million to over 84 million in less than four years, showcasing Dogecoin’s rapid adoption and growing mainstream recognition.
With millions of holders worldwide, Dogecoin’s ascent as the original memecoin has cemented its place as both a cultural icon and a widely used entry point into crypto. Its approachable, community-led ethos has onboarded countless first-time investors into the digital asset space.
Now, with the launch of traditional financial products, Dogecoin enters a new chapter, available through a regulated, institutionally-backed investment vehicle offering secure, transparent access to a more traditional generation of investors as they get acquainted with the oldest dog on the blockchain.
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
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