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Commodities back on the agenda
Commodity ETP Weekly – Commodities back on the agenda
• Inflows into commodity baskets rose to a 16-month high.
• Gold inflows rose to an 11-week high.
• Inflows of US$8.7mn into ETFS Daily Short Copper (SCOP) rise to a two year high.
• Upcoming webinar: Global commodities, have we reached the floor in prices?
• Strong inflows into commodity ETPs indicate that commodities are once again an appealing asset class for investors. Inflows into both broad baskets and individual commodities indicate the breadth of interest.
• Underpinning new commodity optimism in the sector is large cuts to capital spending in mining, smelting and drilling which should restrict the supply of commodities, helping to lift price.
• Not all investors are bullish as indicated by the flows into gold and short commodity ETPs, as investors remain somewhat polarised on the outlook for global growth.
Inflows into commodity baskets rose to a 16-month high. After spending the last few years as a neglected asset class, commodities are making a come-back in investor portfolios. Inflows last week into ETFS Longer Dated All Commodities GO UCITS ETF (COMF) of US$ 26.2mn, ETFS EUR Daily Hedged All Commodities DJ-UBS EDSM (EALL) of US$8.6mn and ETFS Ex Agriculture and Livestock (XFRM) of US$5.7mn bought flows into diversified baskets to the highest level since July 2014. Baskets are typically popular with investors that have a long/medium term bullish outlook on the sector as a whole without taking a specific call on individual commodities. Underpinning new optimism in the sector is large cuts to capital spending in mining, smelting and drilling which should restrict the supply of commodities, helping to lift price. While developing market manufacturing purchasing manager indices (PMIs) appear subdued, their developed market counterparts remain resilient. German, US, Euro Area and even Chinese Caixin PMIs, released last week, all came in above expectations, indicating potential upside surprise for commodity demand. A strong jobs report from the US last Friday indicates that the growth environment remains supportive enough for a rate hike. This important precondition is likely to limit the downside for commodities from rising rates.
Gold inflows rose to an 11-week high. Marking the seventh consecutive week of flows, investors continued to increase their allocation to gold. Last week’s inflows of US$82.6mn came despite gold prices falling 3.7% in the week to Thursday (-4.7% in the week to Friday) and prospects for a rising real rate environment (typically seen to cap gains for the metal). We believe that the gold inflows indicate that gold as a portfolio and monetary hedge is making a come-back. Gold as a defensive asset often underperforms in times of cyclical bullishness, but acts as a counterweight to negative shocks. The timing of the flows indicate that some investors remain concerned about the economic outlook and the potential for further monetary stimulus to be enacted.
Inflows of US$8.7mn into ETFS Daily Short Copper (SCOP) rise to a two-year high. Lingering concern over the robustness of the Chinese outlook appears to be driving bearish sentiment toward industrial metals. However, the view remains polarised, with long copper ETPs receiving the first inflows in three weeks, totalling US$5mn.
Key events to watch this week. Chinese industrial production data and Euro Area GDP figures will give investors a gauge for how demand for commodities in some of the world’s largest economies is faring, and has the potential to clear up some of the recent ambiguity in growth indicators.
Video Presentation
Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
For more information contact
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
Important Information
General
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.
Dogecoin has outperformed other major cryptoassets over the past decade, while also exhibiting a low correlation to crypto and traditional assets. This creates a compelling argument for a portfolio allocation. We tested a Bitcoin-enhanced growth portfolio, which is a traditional 60/40 infused with 3% Bitcoin, and we introduced a modest 1% DOGE allocation. Since most prospective investors likely already hold Bitcoin, this offers a lens into how the two assets can complement each other.
Despite the small portfolio allocation, every approach delivered stronger returns. The benchmark returned 7.25% annually, while DOGE-enhanced portfolios reached as high as 8.95%. Sharpe ratios improved in almost all tests, indicating better risk-adjusted returns. Volatility did slightly tick up, but drawdowns remained largely contained. Even with no rebalancing, the max drawdown only deepened by a few percentage points, underscoring that even a 1% DOGE allocation adds meaningful punch without destabilizing the broader portfolio.
Rebalancing remains essential to capturing upside effectively. Without it, returns can plateau while risk quietly compounds. Monthly or weekly rebalancing offered the best balance, maximizing returns while keeping volatility and drawdowns in check, especially during periods of broader market stress, as we’ve recently seen. Given Dogecoin’s momentum-driven nature, a more strategic approach linked to broader crypto market cycles may offer even greater optimization beyond routine rebalancing.
With the right structure, a 1% allocation to Dogecoin isn’t reckless—it’s rewarding.
Bear Case
Despite strong fundamentals and a rich cultural legacy, Dogecoin’s recent rally, fueled by post-election memecoin mania, may have front-run its true cycle potential. As attention shifts to newer narratives, DOGE risks being seen as ’yesterday’s play,’ potentially underperforming even in a rising market. Still, that wouldn’t signal a flaw in its model, just a pause in a fast-rotating cycle.
Assuming a continued 10% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) from its 2021 peak of $0.73, DOGE would be projected to land around $0.38 by 2025—still more than 2x from today’s levels but modest relative to past cycles. More notably, this would mark the first time Dogecoin fails to reach a new all-time high in a full market cycle.
Neutral Case
Dogecoin may not dominate headlines like it did at its peak, but it still holds cultural relevance and widespread recognition. In a scenario where the total crypto market cap peaks at $5 trillion this cycle and DOGE maintains a solid, albeit slightly reduced, market share of 3% instead of its previous 4%, this would result in a market capitalization of approximately $150 billion for DOGE.
At that valuation, DOGE would trade near $1 per coin, a ~5.5x gain from current levels around $0.185. This neutral case assumes Dogecoin retains its stature as the leading memecoin, despite increased competition, with stable adoption and renewed retail interest, but without the same euphoria of the last cycle.
Bull Case
If we take DOGE’s bottom price of $0.007 just before the last bull run began and fast-forward two years to the bottom of the current cycle at $0.0585, that move reflects a CAGR of 189%. If DOGE were to mirror this explosive growth, DOGE would reach approximately $1.42.
In this scenario, Dogecoin benefits from renewed memecoin mania, increasing real-world adoption, and stronger interest fueled by regulatory clarity and potential integration with major platforms like Elon Musk’s X. A full return of retail enthusiasm and broad cultural momentum could reestablish DOGE as the breakout asset of the cycle, potentially even doubling its all-time high.
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
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