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Coffee offers upside potential in a depressed soft commodity market

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8 år sedan

den

8 september, 2017

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Coffee offers upside potential in a depressed soft commodity market Soft commodities are skirting close to their decade-lows set in 2015

ETF Securities Commodity Research – Coffee offers upside potential in a depressed soft commodity market

Summary

Soft commodities are skirting close to their decade-lows set in 2015
Apart from Arabica coffee, softs are likely to remain in the doldrums
Cane sugar production is high and competition from EU beet sugar will intensify
In the absence of a meaningful weather disruption, cocoa production will remain strong

Arabica coffee

Brazil – which accounts for about 45% of global Arabica coffee output – has just completed its 2017/18 harvest. While output was always expected to be lower than last year due to the biennial cycles present in the country, production fell significantly short due to poor weather. Output is likely to be more than 20% below 2016/17 for Brazil (-9 million 60kg bags). Hopes for a rebound in the 2018/19 coffee crop in Brazil have become dimmer as a lack of rain has hampered the flowering of coffee bushes. Although rain has now commenced, it is late and development of new nodes on coffee bushes are likely to remain inadequate.

Mexico and Central America (20% of global production) have commenced their 2017/18 harvest. So far the output from the region looks strong and we could see a 1 million bag increase in production (6%). Production in Mexico Honduras and Nicaragua seems to have improved after years of coffee leaf rust problems, although El Salvador, Guatemala, and Costa Rica are still suffering from this fungus which reduces coffee yields.

Colombia (15% of global production) is likely remain close to last year’s levels which was at a decade high. There has been 30% growth in Colombian production over the past 10 years.

Despite strong production elsewhere, a decline in Brazilian output and weakening prospects for the country this year could act as a catalyst for prices. While in previous years, Brazil has been able to sell abundant stocks from prior years during poor harvests, its stocks have fallen significantly and supply tightness will likely be felt this year.

Brazil: September 2017 rainfall (departure from average 1961-1990 levels)

Sugar

We are likely to end two years of supply deficits this year. Brazil, the largest producer of cane (22% of global production) has seen close to 6% year on year growth in sugar production in the season so far. It’s not that more sugar cane has been cultivated this year, but that more cane has been diverted to sugar production instead of ethanol production. With oil prices trading below US$60/bbl we are unlikely to see a pickup in ethanol production (ethanol is an alternative car fuel in Brazil).

India, the second largest producer of cane sugar (15%) has received heavy rainfall in recent weeks, helping to fill its reservoirs. Although the monsoon rains appeared to have slowed prematurely several weeks ago, rain came back vigorously, leaving the season’s rainfall close to normal levels. Both the area of planting and sugar yield are expected to rise increasing production by more than 15%.

Thailand, has also experienced a good monsoon season which will help it raise its cane sugar production by over 10%.

The European Union is a producer of beet sugar rather than cane sugar. However, the abolition of production and export quotas from the EU this month will mean that there will be more beet sugar available to compete with cane sugar. The EU projects that by 2026 EU sugar production will rise by 6% over 2016 levels. That appears to be an overly conservative estimate. The USDA’s EU office projects EU sugar production to rise 20% in 2017/18 alone, surpassing the 2014/15 high, while exports will rise by a third.

Under such strong supply growth, we don’t see sugar prices making a recovery.

Cocoa

The 2016/17 cocoa year has just completed with an 18% growth in production over the previous year. Milder Harmattan winds this year have significantly reduced crop damage in Africa (where 70% of the world’s cocoa comes from). Stocks have risen 26% over the year, increasing the stocks to grinding ratio from 34% in 2015/16 to 42% in 2016/17.

The main crop harvests commence this month in the largest producing countries (Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana). Weather conditions have so far been perfect indicating we are likely to see another surplus year in 2017/18.
On the demand side, grinding data has been stagnant. Despite weak prices, confectionary companies don’t appear to have reversed the thrifting of cocoa they pursued in previous years when prices were higher.

La Niña risks

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has increased its probability of a La Niña weather pattern emerging this northern hemisphere winter to 55-60%. However, if the event occurs it is unlikely to change our view of price direction considerably. The weather pattern is likely to be weak if it emerges at all. If anything we expect that dryness in Brazil will continue to hamper the flowering and budding process for coffee (which will continue to be price positive).Dryness in Brazil could promote the gains in sucrose content of cane if accompanied by more sunlight, raising the yield for Brazilian sugar (remaining price negative).

Coolness in West Africa could reduce heat damage, helping to sustain high yields (price negative). But we caution that previous La Ninas have not consistently been production-positive for the crop. According to the International Cocoa Organisation, while El Niños have a statistically significant positive effect on output, La Niña’s positive effects on output fail to be statistically significant.

For more information contact:

Catarina Donat Marques
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 20 7448 4386
E catarina.donatmarques@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

Liknande ämnen:cocoa coffee ETF Securities La Niña Sugar Thailand

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SPFT ETF är en global satsning på teknikföretag

Publicerad

14 timmar sedan

den

18 april, 2025

Redaktionen

SPDR MSCI World Technology UCITS ETF (SPFT ETF) med ISIN IE00BYTRRD19, strävar efter att spåra MSCI World Information Technology-index. MSCI World Information Technology-index spårar informationsteknologisektorn på de utvecklade marknaderna över hela världen (GICS-sektorklassificering).

ETFENs TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,30 % p.a. SPDR MSCI World Technology UCITS ETF är den billigaste ETF som följer MSCI World Information Technology index. ETF:n replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFEn ackumuleras och återinvesteras i ETFEn.

SPDR MSCI World Technology UCITS ETF är en stor ETF med tillgångar på 709 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 29 april 2016 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Fondens mål

Fondens investeringsmål är att följa resultatet för företag inom tekniksektorn, över utvecklade marknader globalt.

Indexbeskrivning

MSCI World Information Technology 35/20 Capped Index mäter utvecklingen för globala aktier som klassificeras som fallande inom tekniksektorn, enligt Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS).

Handla SPFT ETF

SPDR MSCI World Technology UCITS ETF (SPFT ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

Börs	Valuta	Kortnamn
gettex	EUR	SS47
Bolsa Mexicana de Valores	MXN	WTECN
Borsa Italiana	EUR	WTEC
Euronext Amsterdam	EUR	WTCH
London Stock Exchange	USD	WTEC
London Stock Exchange	GBP	TECW
SIX Swiss Exchange	USD	WTEC
XETRA	EUR	SPFT

Största innehav

Värdepapper	Vikt %
Apple Inc.	18,34%
Microsoft Corporation	18,34%
NVIDIA Corporation	18,09%
Broadcom Inc.	4,29%
ASML Holding NV	2,39%
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.	1,50%
Adobe Inc.	1,44%
Salesforce Inc.	1,44%
Oracle Corporation	1,33%
QUALCOMM Incorporated	1,28%

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Dogecoin in a portfolio: A small 1% allocation has a loud bark!

Publicerad

15 timmar sedan

den

18 april, 2025

Redaktionen

Dogecoin has outperformed other major cryptoassets over the past decade, while also exhibiting a low correlation to crypto and traditional assets. This creates a compelling argument for a portfolio allocation. We tested a Bitcoin-enhanced growth portfolio, which is a traditional 60/40 infused with 3% Bitcoin, and we introduced a modest 1% DOGE allocation. Since most prospective investors likely already hold Bitcoin, this offers a lens into how the two assets can complement each other.

Despite the small portfolio allocation, every approach delivered stronger returns. The benchmark returned 7.25% annually, while DOGE-enhanced portfolios reached as high as 8.95%. Sharpe ratios improved in almost all tests, indicating better risk-adjusted returns. Volatility did slightly tick up, but drawdowns remained largely contained. Even with no rebalancing, the max drawdown only deepened by a few percentage points, underscoring that even a 1% DOGE allocation adds meaningful punch without destabilizing the broader portfolio.

Rebalancing remains essential to capturing upside effectively. Without it, returns can plateau while risk quietly compounds. Monthly or weekly rebalancing offered the best balance, maximizing returns while keeping volatility and drawdowns in check, especially during periods of broader market stress, as we’ve recently seen. Given Dogecoin’s momentum-driven nature, a more strategic approach linked to broader crypto market cycles may offer even greater optimization beyond routine rebalancing.

With the right structure, a 1% allocation to Dogecoin isn’t reckless—it’s rewarding.

Bear Case

Despite strong fundamentals and a rich cultural legacy, Dogecoin’s recent rally, fueled by post-election memecoin mania, may have front-run its true cycle potential. As attention shifts to newer narratives, DOGE risks being seen as ’yesterday’s play,’ potentially underperforming even in a rising market. Still, that wouldn’t signal a flaw in its model, just a pause in a fast-rotating cycle.

Assuming a continued 10% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) from its 2021 peak of $0.73, DOGE would be projected to land around $0.38 by 2025—still more than 2x from today’s levels but modest relative to past cycles. More notably, this would mark the first time Dogecoin fails to reach a new all-time high in a full market cycle.

Neutral Case

Dogecoin may not dominate headlines like it did at its peak, but it still holds cultural relevance and widespread recognition. In a scenario where the total crypto market cap peaks at $5 trillion this cycle and DOGE maintains a solid, albeit slightly reduced, market share of 3% instead of its previous 4%, this would result in a market capitalization of approximately $150 billion for DOGE.

At that valuation, DOGE would trade near $1 per coin, a ~5.5x gain from current levels around $0.185. This neutral case assumes Dogecoin retains its stature as the leading memecoin, despite increased competition, with stable adoption and renewed retail interest, but without the same euphoria of the last cycle.

Bull Case

If we take DOGE’s bottom price of $0.007 just before the last bull run began and fast-forward two years to the bottom of the current cycle at $0.0585, that move reflects a CAGR of 189%. If DOGE were to mirror this explosive growth, DOGE would reach approximately $1.42.

In this scenario, Dogecoin benefits from renewed memecoin mania, increasing real-world adoption, and stronger interest fueled by regulatory clarity and potential integration with major platforms like Elon Musk’s X. A full return of retail enthusiasm and broad cultural momentum could reestablish DOGE as the breakout asset of the cycle, potentially even doubling its all-time high.

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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VBTC ETN spårar priset på kryptovalutan Bitcoin

Publicerad

16 timmar sedan

den

18 april, 2025

Redaktionen

VanEck Bitcoin ETN (VBTC ETN) med ISIN DE000A28M8D0, spårar värdet på kryptovalutan Bitcoin. Den börshandlade produktens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 1,00 % p.a. Denna ETN replikerar resultatet av det underliggande indexet med en skuldförbindelse med säkerheter som backas upp av fysiska innehav av kryptovalutan.

VanEck Bitcoin ETN är en stor ETN med 568 miljoner euro tillgångar under förvaltning. Denna ETN lanserades den 19 november 2020 och har sin hemvist i Liechtenstein.

Produktbeskrivning

Kombinera spänningen med bitcoin med enkelheten och säkerheten hos traditionell finans. Bitcoin är den äldsta kryptovalutan, med det största börsvärdet. Det ses ofta som digitalt guld, ett digitalt värdelager i en tid av osäkerhet. VanEck Bitcoin ETN är en fullständigt säkerställd börshandlad sedel som investerar i bitcoin.

100 % uppbackad av bitcoin (BTC)
Förvaras hos en reglerad kryptodepå, med kryptoförsäkring (upp till ett begränsat belopp)
Kan handlas som en ETF på reglerade börser (om än inom ett annat segment)

Huvudriskfaktorer

Volatilitetsrisk: Handelspriserna för många digitala tillgångar har upplevt extrem volatilitet under de senaste perioderna och kan mycket väl fortsätta att göra det. Digitala tillgångar har bara introducerats under det senaste decenniet och klarhet i regelverket är fortfarande svårfångad i många jurisdiktioner.

Valutarisk, teknikrisk, juridiska och regulatoriska risker. Du kan förlora pengar genom att investera i fonderna. Värdet på investeringarna kan gå upp eller ner och investeraren kanske inte får tillbaka det investerade beloppet.

Underliggande index

MarketVector Bitcoin VWAP Close Index (MVBTCV Index).

Handla VBTC ETN

VanEck Bitcoin ETN (VBTC ETN) är en europeisk börshandlad kryptovaluta. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och Euronext Amsterdam.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETP genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.