Följ oss
the_ad_group(12516);

Nyheter

BlackRock om Federal Reserves räntebesked

Publicerad

10 år sedan

den

BlackRock om Federal Reserves räntebesked

BlackRock om Federal Reserves räntebesked Rick Rieder Chief Investment Officer of Fundamental Fixed Income at BlackRock, and Co-Manager of Fixed Income Global Opportunities (FIGO), provides the below comments on yesterday’s Fed policy statement:

Highlights:

Following yesterday’s statement, we still think September is the most likely time for a start raising rates, but agree with Chair Yellen that the timing of lift-off is less important than the trajectory of rate change.

Labor markets appear stronger than at any time in the past two decades, wage gains and inflation appear to be following, and the Fed has a window of opportunity to begin its departure from “emergency” policy conditions and slowly take rates to more normal levels.

As we’ve argued, more normal interest rate levels, particularly if combined with well-designed fiscal actions, could actually prove to be beneficial to the economy, while maintaining excessively low policy rates for too long raises risks.

Extended Overview:

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee laid out a statement that continues to provide the central bank with the flexibility to respond to changes in the data over the coming months. We think that some of the statement’s adjustments highlight the Fed’s recognition that recent economic growth readings are stronger than the surprisingly softer data received during the year’s first quarter, but as mentioned, they also keep the Committee’s options open. For example, the statement’s first paragraph describes the economy in meaningfully more positive terms than did the April statement, but of course it also highlights that “business fixed investment and net exports stayed soft.”

However, we don’t believe that the data in the first quarter was as soft as the economics profession or the media has generally evaluated it to be, as indeed there were a series of seasonal factors that skewed the economic data lower, similar to other first quarter disappointments in recent years. These factors included: the harsh winter weather, year-end trends in corporate cap-ex, reduced government spending, labor unrest at West Coast ports and a tangible one-time currency shock.  That being said, the Fed’s recognition of this and of the stronger data (even with the seasonal impact), opens the door for policy movement.

From the standpoint of the labor market recovery, the most recent employment report displayed a very robust 280,000 jobs gained, with revisions to March and April combining for an additional 32,000 jobs than previously reported. The longer-term strength in labor markets is highlighted by the fact that the 3-month, 6-month and 12-month moving average payroll gains came in at 207,000, 236,000, and 255,000, respectively, which is considerably stronger than the 200,000 average level of jobs growth that has been typical of past periods of economic expansion. In fact, the 5.6 million jobs created in the past 24 months is greater than the combined total created in the 13 years prior, so we clearly see the evidence for an employment landscape that is, arguably, stronger than at any time over the past 20 years.

Furthermore, one of the key arguments of doves at the Fed has been the general lack of wage improvement over much of this economic cycle, although as we’ve suggested in the past, even here we’re seeing meaningful improvement. In fact, average hourly earnings gained 0.3% last month (running at 2.3% year-over-year) and are starting to display the strengthening seen in indicators such as the Employment Cost Index. The Fed’s recognition of wage increases and the longer-term nature of inflation guidance means that the central bank doesn’t need a 2% reading on a wide series of inflation metrics in the short-term to begin moving rates. And we would applaud that position, as wage pressure and the consequential impact of lower levels of slack in the economy takes time to work its way into broader inflation readings.

While we believe the data is currently strong enough for the Fed to act, the Committee will likely be very deliberate with this first move. Indeed, the central bank significantly lowered its real GDP growth forecast for 2015 (reflecting the first quarter weakness), but it modestly upgraded the growth prospects of 2016 and 2017. Further, when judging the path of the target Federal Funds Rate, the Committee consensus implies lift-off for later this year, but also suggests we will see a shallower trajectory of rate increases in 2016 and 2017 than had been previously estimated.

In our view, the specific date, which we still anticipate to be September, with some outside possibility of July or October, is significantly less important than the pace of policy rate change. Still, we think that the Fed has been very clear – with Fed Chair Yellen using the word “gradual” 14 times in her last speech, highlighting that the pace will be very slow. The lower level of the longer-dated dots also suggests that the anticipated rate destination will be lower than it has been historically. In our view, the normalization of rates, particularly if combined with well-designed fiscal initiatives, could actually be a benefit to economic growth. Further, keeping rates at excessively low levels, while perhaps stimulative for the financial economy, also raises risks that might threaten to undermine the recovery. Consequently, the time for a move away from “emergency rate” levels is at hand.

Valuations of long-end interest rates, given their recent back-up have approached close to a fair value levels, and nothing that the Fed has said should dramatically influence that movement from here. We do believe that with any negative resolution of the Greece situation, however, the flight-to-quality bid may take 15 to 20 basis points off of 10 year yields.

Liknande ämnen:
Fortsätt läsa
Annons
Klicka för att kommentera

Skriv en kommentar

Din e-postadress kommer inte publiceras. Obligatoriska fält är märkta *

Nyheter

Trump’s Liberation Day: The impact of tariffs on the crypto market

Publicerad

3 timmar sedan

den

10 april, 2025

Av

Crypto trades around the clock and often responds quickly to market uncertainty. Bitcoin usually drops first during the market turbulence because it’s risky and easy to trade, just like tech stocks. Here’s how Trump’s tariffs are playing into that.

Stablecoins: The real powerhouse of crypto

Stablecoins are digital currencies tied to assets like the U.S. dollar, making them stable in price and easy to send worldwide instantly. They drive the crypto economy, moving billions, powering financial applications, and reshaping payments. From remittances to billion-dollar treasuries, explore how leading stablecoins like USDT and USDC are making it happen.

Why the memecoin mania isn’t a joke

A memecoin is a cryptocurrency inspired by internet memes or viral trends. Unlike traditional cryptocurrencies focused on utility (like Bitcoin or Ethereum), memecoins thrive on community engagement, humor, and speculative momentum. With low barriers to entry, they’re easy to create and trade, making them a go-to starting point for crypto newcomers.

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

Fortsätt läsa

Nyheter

WEBN ETF en billig globalfond från Amundi

Publicerad

4 timmar sedan

den

10 april, 2025

Av

Amundi Prime All Country World UCITS ETF Acc (WEBN ETF) med ISIN IE0003XJA0J9, strävar efter att spåra Solactive GBS Global Markets Large & Mid Cap-index. Solactive GBS Global Markets Large & Mid Cap-index spårar stora och medelstora aktier från utvecklade och tillväxtmarknader över hela världen.

Amundi Prime All Country World UCITS ETF Acc (WEBN ETF) med ISIN IE0003XJA0J9, strävar efter att spåra Solactive GBS Global Markets Large & Mid Cap-index. Solactive GBS Global Markets Large & Mid Cap-index spårar stora och medelstora aktier från utvecklade och tillväxtmarknader över hela världen.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,07 % p.a. Amundi Prime All Country World UCITS ETF Acc är den billigaste ETF som följer Solactive GBS Global Markets Large & Mid Cap-index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

Denna ETF lanserades den 5 juni 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Investeringsmål

Amundi Prime All Country World UCITS ETF Acc strävar efter att så nära som möjligt replikera resultatet för Solactive GBS Global Markets Large & Mid Cap Index (””Index”) oavsett om trenden är stigande eller fallande. Delfondens mål är att uppnå en tracking error-nivå för delfonden och dess index som normalt inte överstiger 1 %.

Handla WEBN ETF

Amundi Prime All Country World UCITS ETF Acc (WEBN ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
XETRAEURWEBN

Största innehav

Denna fond använder fysisk replikering för att spåra indexets prestanda.

NamnValutaVikt %Sektor
MICROSOFT CORPUSD4.62 %Informationsteknologi
APPLE INCUSD4.47 %Informationsteknologi
NVIDIA CORPUSD3.99 %Informationsteknologi
AMAZON.COM INCUSD2.47 %Sällanköpsvaror
META PLATFORMS INC-CLASS AUSD1.54 %Kommunikationstjänster
ALPHABET INC CL AUSD1.51 %Kommunikationstjänster
ALPHABET INC CL CUSD1.26 %Kommunikationstjänster
ELI LILLY & COUSD1.05 %Health Care
BROADCOM INCUSD1.04 %Informationsteknologi
TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTWD0.97 %Informationsteknologi

Innehav kan komma att förändras

Fortsätt läsa

Nyheter

Mar.25 crypto update, Research commentary on market turmoil, CIO Notes and ETP performance attribution

Publicerad

5 timmar sedan

den

10 april, 2025

Av

Mar.25 crypto update, Research commentary on market turmoil, CIO Notes and ETP performance attribution

A – Research commentaries from last week developments

  1. Markets reacted to Trump tariffs – Bitcoin stands

Global markets fell sharply after President Trump’s new 25% tariffs on Chinese imports. Stocks led the decline – the Nasdaq 100 is now down -14% since the election, and the S&P 500 -12.3%. Crypto reacted too, but not uniformly:

• Altcoins such as SOL and ETH were hit hardest (down over 30% since November)

• Bitcoin and the Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) showed resilience, gaining +14.3% and +9.3%, respectively since Election

This kind of selloff tends to erase diversification — everything moves together. But it’s essential to take a longer view:

• Since Trump’s election, only three assets have consistently outperformed: Bitcoin, NCI, and gold.

• Last week, only gold outpaced BTC, confirming the role of digital assets as a strategic long-term allocation — even in volatile regimes.

  1. Regulatory tailwinds are building

The next phase of crypto decoupling could come from policy. In the US, the signals are turning positive:

• The STABLE Act advanced in Congress, with Trump urging swift approval

• A tokenized fund paid $4.17M in dividends last month, proving blockchain’s real-world income potential

• The SEC has launched a review of past crypto guidance — a move toward clearer rules and broader institutional comfort

Bottom line: In a week where most assets fell, crypto stood out. That’s not a coincidence — it’s a signal.

B – CIO Monthly Notes – Crypto’s Political Tailwinds Are Blowing Hard

• Following a week in Washington, our CIO outlines how crypto is gaining bipartisan traction in DC.

• Key takeaway: regulatory clarity is coming faster than expected, and institutions are taking note.

C – March 2025 ETP performance overview

As of 31/03/25 – Source: Hashdex and Bloomberg. Performances in USD.

Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HASH / HDX1) : March: -4.5% | YTD: -19%

Key drivers in March: Bitcoin and Ethereum

March Performance Attribution:

Hashdex Crypto Momentum Factor ETP (HAMO / HDXM): March: -8.5% | YTD: -22%

Key drivers in March: Litecoin, Ethereum and Solana

March Performance Attribution:

Hashdex Multi-Crypto Index ETPs

Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HASH)

• Broad exposure to BTC, ETH, and major altcoins (SOL, XRP, ADA, etc)

• Quarterly rebalancing – evolutive, market cap-based allocation with no caps (weights and number of constituents)

• Largest crypto index ETP in Europe (+$300m AUM)

• ISIN: CH1184151731 | Tickers: HASH (SIX, Euronext) / HDX1 (Xetra)

• Tradable in USD, EUR, CHF, GBP
• Factsheet / Product page / Index Methodology

Hashdex Crypto Momentum Factor ETP (HAMO/HDXM )

• Momentum-based strategy with monthly rebalancing

• Designed to capture trends across large-cap crypto assets

• ISIN: CH1218734544 | Tickers: HAMO (SIX, Euronext) / HDXM (Xetra)

• Tradable in USD, EUR, CHF, GBP

• Factsheet / Product page / Index Methodology

Fortsätt läsa

Populära