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Bitcoin Survives Bear Trap

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Bitcoin has witnessed some heavy price turbulence after breaking the $71K mark in early June. Since then, it lost almost 21% in value scraping the key level of $55K in the first week of July.

Bitcoin has witnessed some heavy price turbulence after breaking the $71K mark in early June. Since then, it lost almost 21% in value scraping the key level of $55K in the first week of July.

Figure 1 – Bitcoin Price

Source: Glassnode

However, since last Friday, Bitcoin has gained $7K and is now trading around the $64K mark. But why has it been such a turbulent time for Bitcoin?

Factors Contributing to the Selling Pressure

• Bitcoin Miner Activity

• German Government Sell-Offs

• Mt. Gox Repayment Program & Bitcoin Exchange Liquidity

Bitcoin Miner Activity

The BTC selling pressure was earmarked by miner activity, after selling 30K BTC in June. This sell-off marked miners’ BTC reserves at the lowest in a decade, just over 1.8K BTC.

Figure 2 – Bitcoin Miner Balance’

Source: Glassnode

Miners have however reduced their activity on-exchange, which should calm fears further. In June, miners were moving an average of around 50 BTC or just under $3M per day to exchanges, which has now slowed down, as shown below.

Figure 3 – Bitcoin Transfer Volume from Miners to Exchanges

Source: Glassnode

On top of that, on-chain data shows the 30-day moving average of Bitcoin’s hash rate is starting to close the gap with the 60-day moving average, for the first time since May. This indicates miners are experiencing lower income stress, which typically signals a market bottom.

Figure 4 – Bitcoin’s Hash Ribbon Indicator

Source: Glassnode

As a result, miner reserves have slowly started to pick back up, as shown in the first figure. This could indicate that the miner sell-offs post-halving, due to reduced profitability, have tapered off which is another reason to be cautiously positive.

German Government Sell-Offs

The German Goverment had been in the process of completing the sale of 50K BTC seized from a pirating website, Movie2k, which was worth approximately $3B when the sell-offs started.

Figure 5 – German Government Holdings

Source: @obchakevich on Dune Analytics

Bitcoin had a shaky June and July. However, in the week Germany sold almost 80% of their holdings, 40K BTC or $2.2B worth, Bitcoin’s price remained fairly resilient, a testament to its strength in adverse market conditions. That being said, according to data from Arkham Intelligence, the German Government engaged via OTC trades, to minimize potential slippage and market impact.

Figure 6 – Bitcoin Price (7 July – 14 July)

Source: Glassnode

Nevertheless, the conclusion of these sell-offs is positive for Bitcoin, as it removes a significant dark cloud from the market, and demonstrates the asset’s resilience.

Mt. Gox Repayment Program

However, Bitcoin faces selling pressure due to the upcoming Mt. Gox repayment program. Starting in July 2024, Mt. Gox began repaying approximately $9B worth of assets to its creditors, who have been waiting for over a decade since the exchange’s collapse in 2014.

Figure 7 – Mt. Gox Holdings

Source: @21co on Dune Analytics

Of the approximate 142K BTC held by Mt. Gox, 139K BTC is left to be reimbursed, equating to approximately 2% being paid back as of today, indicating a slow sale rate. However, yesterday Mt. Gox shuffled almost 96K BTC between their wallets, which contributed to the renewed FUD, as they prepare to distribute the reimbursements. While the repayment sum is very large, it is unlikely that these creditors will sell off their BTC immediately, given their long-term belief in the crypto industry given their involvement a decade ago, and the potential capital gains tax implications associated with the asset. The selling pressure is further diluted by the fact that reimbursements will likely occur on different days across different exchanges.

Bitcoin Exchange Liquidity

Despite, Bitcoin’s apparent survival. Let’s take a closer look at how the remaining BTC could affect the market. 139K BTC or $8.93B worth remains for Mt. Gox to restore to creditors, who may end up selling their assets. To gauge the market impact of this, it may help to look at Bitcoin’s liquidity on exchange. Presuming they aim to sell their BTC, the sell-offs will likely occur by trading with a fiat pair (BTC/USD) or a stablecoin pair (BTC/USDT or BTC/USDC). The top 5 most liquid exchanges are listed below, with their respective liquidity depths in dollar and BTC terms (assuming July’s average price of $59K).

Figure 8 – Centralized Exchange % Depth

Source: Coingecko

As to not mitigate the market impact, the sell-offs are likely to occur across several exchanges. The five most liquid exchanges need around $72M outflows, on a given day to have a 2% downward price swing. The potential sell-offs are contingent on creditors finally receiving their assets from Mt. Gox, which is happening very slowly. Furthermore, it is doubtful that once received, they will sell all their BTC immediately, and as such any price action is largely resulting from the negative market sentiment associated with this event.

On-Chain Metrics

Despite the negativity surrounding the market, looking on-chain could help uncover dynamics that might make investors feel positive, and we propose 3 different indicators to look at.

The Market Value to Realized Value Ratio (MVRV) is a metric that assesses Bitcoin’s market valuation relative to its realized value, helping identify market tops and bottoms.

    A high MVRV indicates overvaluation and a potential market top, while a low score indicates undervaluation and a potential market bottom.

    Figure 9 – Bitcoin MVRV Score

    Source: Glassnode

    The current MVRV is around levels seen at the end of December 2020, just before Bitcoin rallied from $11K to around the $60K mark. This is also similar to the levels seen towards the end of last year, before the ETF craze which drove Bitcoin to a new all-time high of $75K in early March. Given these historical precedents, this MVRV level suggests a potential for significant upside, making it an opportune time for investors to consider entering the market.

    Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicates the difference between investors’ unrealized profits and losses to assess market sentiment, with positive values suggesting profit-dominant sentiment and negative values indicating loss-dominant sentiment.

      This metric is another reason for positivity. Currently, Bitcoin’s NUPL is in the optimism/denial phase, indicating moderate unrealized profits among investors. This suggests that market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, after recent price stagnations led NUPL to drop, and belief to be wiped away. That being said, this is a healthy consolidation for the asset and potentially allows it to spur on.

      Figure 10 – Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss

      Source: Glassnode

      1. Fear and Greed Index measures market sentiment, with values ranging from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed). It helps investors gauge whether the market is overly bearish or bullish, indicating potential buying or selling opportunities.

      Figure 11 – Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index

      Source: Glassnode

      The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index was often in the ‘Fear’ region during June and early July. However, this was a positive sign, as it was near levels we had not seen since September 2023, when the asset was trading at $26K, which preceded a historical price rally. Over the weekend, the Fear and Greed Index sprung to Greed levels, suggesting we might be on track for another parabolic run.

      Conclusions

      • Bitcoin’s turbulence has stemmed from significant selling pressures, particularly the Mt. Gox repayment program.

      o The impact of these sell-offs is moderated by Bitcoin’s strong exchange liquidity and potential ETF inflows.
      • The dark cloud of the German Government sell-offs is out of the way.

      • On-chain metrics suggest the potential for a bullish reversal, indicating now might be an opportune time for investors to consider entering the market.

      For investors looking to invest in Bitcoin via a regulated investment vehicle, the following ETPs are available on the European market:

      Figure 12 – Top 10 European Bitcoin Products by Assets Under Management Product Ticker

      Source: Bloomberg, Data as of July 16th, 2024.

      Avg. Daily Spread 20D (bps): refers to the best daily average bid/ask spread over the last 20 days across European exchanges.

      This Week’s Calendar

      Source: Forex Factory, 21Shares

      Research Newsletter

      Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

      Disclaimer

      The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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      SPFT ETF är en global satsning på teknikföretag

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      SPDR MSCI World Technology UCITS ETF (SPFT ETF) med ISIN IE00BYTRRD19, strävar efter att spåra MSCI World Information Technology-index. MSCI World Information Technology-index spårar informationsteknologisektorn på de utvecklade marknaderna över hela världen (GICS-sektorklassificering).

      SPDR MSCI World Technology UCITS ETF (SPFT ETF) med ISIN IE00BYTRRD19, strävar efter att spåra MSCI World Information Technology-index. MSCI World Information Technology-index spårar informationsteknologisektorn på de utvecklade marknaderna över hela världen (GICS-sektorklassificering).

      ETFENs TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,30 % p.a. SPDR MSCI World Technology UCITS ETF är den billigaste ETF som följer MSCI World Information Technology index. ETF:n replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFEn ackumuleras och återinvesteras i ETFEn.

      SPDR MSCI World Technology UCITS ETF är en stor ETF med tillgångar på 709 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 29 april 2016 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

      Fondens mål

      Fondens investeringsmål är att följa resultatet för företag inom tekniksektorn, över utvecklade marknader globalt.

      Indexbeskrivning

      MSCI World Information Technology 35/20 Capped Index mäter utvecklingen för globala aktier som klassificeras som fallande inom tekniksektorn, enligt Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS).

      Handla SPFT ETF

      SPDR MSCI World Technology UCITS ETF (SPFT ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.

      Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

      Börsnoteringar

      BörsValutaKortnamn
      gettexEURSS47
      Bolsa Mexicana de ValoresMXNWTECN
      Borsa ItalianaEURWTEC
      Euronext AmsterdamEURWTCH
      London Stock ExchangeUSDWTEC
      London Stock ExchangeGBPTECW
      SIX Swiss ExchangeUSDWTEC
      XETRAEURSPFT

      Största innehav

      VärdepapperVikt %
      Apple Inc.18,34%
      Microsoft Corporation18,34%
      NVIDIA Corporation18,09%
      Broadcom Inc.4,29%
      ASML Holding NV2,39%
      Advanced Micro Devices Inc.1,50%
      Adobe Inc.1,44%
      Salesforce Inc.1,44%
      Oracle Corporation1,33%
      QUALCOMM Incorporated1,28%

      Innehav kan komma att förändras

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      Dogecoin in a portfolio: A small 1% allocation has a loud bark!

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      Dogecoin has outperformed other major cryptoassets over the past decade, while also exhibiting a low correlation to crypto and traditional assets. This creates a compelling argument for a portfolio allocation. We tested a Bitcoin-enhanced growth portfolio, which is a traditional 60/40 infused with 3% Bitcoin, and we introduced a modest 1% DOGE allocation. Since most prospective investors likely already hold Bitcoin, this offers a lens into how the two assets can complement each other.

      Dogecoin has outperformed other major cryptoassets over the past decade, while also exhibiting a low correlation to crypto and traditional assets. This creates a compelling argument for a portfolio allocation. We tested a Bitcoin-enhanced growth portfolio, which is a traditional 60/40 infused with 3% Bitcoin, and we introduced a modest 1% DOGE allocation. Since most prospective investors likely already hold Bitcoin, this offers a lens into how the two assets can complement each other.

      Despite the small portfolio allocation, every approach delivered stronger returns. The benchmark returned 7.25% annually, while DOGE-enhanced portfolios reached as high as 8.95%. Sharpe ratios improved in almost all tests, indicating better risk-adjusted returns. Volatility did slightly tick up, but drawdowns remained largely contained. Even with no rebalancing, the max drawdown only deepened by a few percentage points, underscoring that even a 1% DOGE allocation adds meaningful punch without destabilizing the broader portfolio.

      Rebalancing remains essential to capturing upside effectively. Without it, returns can plateau while risk quietly compounds. Monthly or weekly rebalancing offered the best balance, maximizing returns while keeping volatility and drawdowns in check, especially during periods of broader market stress, as we’ve recently seen. Given Dogecoin’s momentum-driven nature, a more strategic approach linked to broader crypto market cycles may offer even greater optimization beyond routine rebalancing.

      With the right structure, a 1% allocation to Dogecoin isn’t reckless—it’s rewarding.

      Bear Case

      Despite strong fundamentals and a rich cultural legacy, Dogecoin’s recent rally, fueled by post-election memecoin mania, may have front-run its true cycle potential. As attention shifts to newer narratives, DOGE risks being seen as ’yesterday’s play,’ potentially underperforming even in a rising market. Still, that wouldn’t signal a flaw in its model, just a pause in a fast-rotating cycle.

      Assuming a continued 10% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) from its 2021 peak of $0.73, DOGE would be projected to land around $0.38 by 2025—still more than 2x from today’s levels but modest relative to past cycles. More notably, this would mark the first time Dogecoin fails to reach a new all-time high in a full market cycle.

      Neutral Case

      Dogecoin may not dominate headlines like it did at its peak, but it still holds cultural relevance and widespread recognition. In a scenario where the total crypto market cap peaks at $5 trillion this cycle and DOGE maintains a solid, albeit slightly reduced, market share of 3% instead of its previous 4%, this would result in a market capitalization of approximately $150 billion for DOGE.

      At that valuation, DOGE would trade near $1 per coin, a ~5.5x gain from current levels around $0.185. This neutral case assumes Dogecoin retains its stature as the leading memecoin, despite increased competition, with stable adoption and renewed retail interest, but without the same euphoria of the last cycle.

      Bull Case

      If we take DOGE’s bottom price of $0.007 just before the last bull run began and fast-forward two years to the bottom of the current cycle at $0.0585, that move reflects a CAGR of 189%. If DOGE were to mirror this explosive growth, DOGE would reach approximately $1.42.

      In this scenario, Dogecoin benefits from renewed memecoin mania, increasing real-world adoption, and stronger interest fueled by regulatory clarity and potential integration with major platforms like Elon Musk’s X. A full return of retail enthusiasm and broad cultural momentum could reestablish DOGE as the breakout asset of the cycle, potentially even doubling its all-time high.

      Research Newsletter

      Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

      Disclaimer

      The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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      VBTC ETN spårar priset på kryptovalutan Bitcoin

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      VanEck Bitcoin ETN (VBTC ETN) med ISIN DE000A28M8D0, spårar värdet på kryptovalutan Bitcoin. Den börshandlade produktens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 1,00 % p.a. Denna ETN replikerar resultatet av det underliggande indexet med en skuldförbindelse med säkerheter som backas upp av fysiska innehav av kryptovalutan.

      VanEck Bitcoin ETN (VBTC ETN) med ISIN DE000A28M8D0, spårar värdet på kryptovalutan Bitcoin. Den börshandlade produktens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 1,00 % p.a. Denna ETN replikerar resultatet av det underliggande indexet med en skuldförbindelse med säkerheter som backas upp av fysiska innehav av kryptovalutan.

      VanEck Bitcoin ETN är en stor ETN med 568 miljoner euro tillgångar under förvaltning. Denna ETN lanserades den 19 november 2020 och har sin hemvist i Liechtenstein.

      Produktbeskrivning

      Kombinera spänningen med bitcoin med enkelheten och säkerheten hos traditionell finans. Bitcoin är den äldsta kryptovalutan, med det största börsvärdet. Det ses ofta som digitalt guld, ett digitalt värdelager i en tid av osäkerhet. VanEck Bitcoin ETN är en fullständigt säkerställd börshandlad sedel som investerar i bitcoin.

      • 100 % uppbackad av bitcoin (BTC)
      • Förvaras hos en reglerad kryptodepå, med kryptoförsäkring (upp till ett begränsat belopp)
      • Kan handlas som en ETF på reglerade börser (om än inom ett annat segment)

      Huvudriskfaktorer

      Volatilitetsrisk: Handelspriserna för många digitala tillgångar har upplevt extrem volatilitet under de senaste perioderna och kan mycket väl fortsätta att göra det. Digitala tillgångar har bara introducerats under det senaste decenniet och klarhet i regelverket är fortfarande svårfångad i många jurisdiktioner.

      Valutarisk, teknikrisk, juridiska och regulatoriska risker. Du kan förlora pengar genom att investera i fonderna. Värdet på investeringarna kan gå upp eller ner och investeraren kanske inte får tillbaka det investerade beloppet.

      Underliggande index

      MarketVector Bitcoin VWAP Close Index (MVBTCV Index).

      Handla VBTC ETN

      VanEck Bitcoin ETN (VBTC ETN) är en europeisk börshandlad kryptovaluta. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och Euronext Amsterdam.

      Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETP genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel  Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.

      Börsnoteringar

      BörsValutaKortnamn
      Euronext AmsterdamUSDVBTC
      Euronext ParisEURVBTC
      XETRAEURVBTC
      gettexEURVBTC
      SIX Swiss ExchangeCHFVBTC

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