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Bargain Hunting Drives Demand for Energy ETPs
- Commodity ETP Weekly Bargain Hunting Drives Demand for Energy ETPs
- Long WTI ETPs see highest fortnightly inflows since 2012.
- ETFS Leveraged Natural Gas attracted a further US$10.7mn.
- A 3.4% spike in silver prices prompted US$11.4mn of profit taking from ETFS Daily Leveraged Silver (LSIL).
- ETFS Agriculture (AIGA) sees outflows on profit-taking.
Oil and natural gas continue to see the highest inflows in the commodity complex as investors view current prices as increasingly attractive. WTI and Brent oil respectively fell a further 10.3% and 8.6% this week as both the IEA and OPEC cut demand forecasts for 2015 to the lowest level since 2002. However, underlying the cut to OPEC demand was an increase in non-OPEC oil supply, conceding some loss in market share. Many ETP investors believe that such low prices are unsustainable and this cut in demand forecasts is likely to be followed by a tightening in OPEC supply in 2015.
Long WTI ETPs see highest fortnightly inflows since 2012
Long WTI ETPs saw a further US$33.2mn of inflows last week on top of the US$45.7mn the week before. That contrasts the continued outflows from long Brent ETPs which saw a further US$0.5mn of outflows last week. WTI has fallen below US$60/bbl and Brent is trailing not far behind. At these prices, close to 20% of crude oil and condensates production from the United States are unprofitable according to the EIA. If prices remain persistently low, production will likely be reduced by higher cost producers. Although price weakness is likely to continue through the first half of 2015, continued economic growth in the US and China, combined with a reduction in oil supply, will eventually bring the oil market back to balance, with prices returning to trade around the US$90/bbl level towards the end of 2015. We believe the reduced demand forecasts from OPEC are a precursor to supply cuts.
ETFS Leveraged Natural Gas attracted a further US$10.7mn on top of the US$27.8mn the week before
With a larger-than-expected storage withdrawal confirmed on Wednesday, natural gas prices staged a small recovery mid-week, but closed down on the week as a whole. Despite the relatively warm US winter expected by NOAA, ETP investors believe that current prices remain very low for the peak heating season and given the unpredictability of weather, the risks remain to the upside for demand and price.
A 3.4% spike in silver prices prompted US$11.4mn of profit taking from ETFS Daily Leveraged Silver (LSIL)
Marking the highest outflows from the leveraged silver product since 2011, investors took the opportunity to lock in profits before the year’s end. Over 50% of silver demand comes from industrial applications, with China and the US accounting for over 40% of global fabrication demand. Continued growth in these large economies in 2015 should see demand for silver increase, helping support prices.
ETFS Agriculture (AIGA) sees outflows on profit-taking. Despite the marginally bearish WASDE report out on Wednesday, wheat, corn and soy prices increased as rumours of Russian exports restrictions rattled the market. While not confirmed, prices were up strongly on Thursday only to ease on Friday as decent snow coverage in the US will help the 2015 wheat crop after a record 2014. ETP investors took profit to square their positions before the end of year.
Key events to watch this week. The Federal Open Market Committee’s last meeting for 2014 will be closely watched for cues on policy tightening to come in 2015. US CPI inflation data out on the same day as the central bank’s meeting, should attract attention as investors gauge the capacity for the Fed to maintain loose policy for longer. Gold prices are closely linked to the US interest rate path and indications of tighter policy could hurt precious metals. Consensus expectations are for HSBC’s Chinese PMIs to fall below the 50 mark, indicating a contraction in industrial activity from last month. Should they remain above 50, we could see renewed optimism in the Chinese growth outlook and their subsequent demand for commodities.
Video Presentation
Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
Important Information
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.
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Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
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Mar.25 crypto update, Research commentary on market turmoil, CIO Notes and ETP performance attribution
A – Research commentaries from last week developments
- Markets reacted to Trump tariffs – Bitcoin stands
Global markets fell sharply after President Trump’s new 25% tariffs on Chinese imports. Stocks led the decline – the Nasdaq 100 is now down -14% since the election, and the S&P 500 -12.3%. Crypto reacted too, but not uniformly:
• Altcoins such as SOL and ETH were hit hardest (down over 30% since November)
• Bitcoin and the Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) showed resilience, gaining +14.3% and +9.3%, respectively since Election
This kind of selloff tends to erase diversification — everything moves together. But it’s essential to take a longer view:
• Since Trump’s election, only three assets have consistently outperformed: Bitcoin, NCI, and gold.
• Last week, only gold outpaced BTC, confirming the role of digital assets as a strategic long-term allocation — even in volatile regimes.
- Regulatory tailwinds are building
The next phase of crypto decoupling could come from policy. In the US, the signals are turning positive:
• The STABLE Act advanced in Congress, with Trump urging swift approval
• A tokenized fund paid $4.17M in dividends last month, proving blockchain’s real-world income potential
• The SEC has launched a review of past crypto guidance — a move toward clearer rules and broader institutional comfort
Bottom line: In a week where most assets fell, crypto stood out. That’s not a coincidence — it’s a signal.
B – CIO Monthly Notes – Crypto’s Political Tailwinds Are Blowing Hard
• Following a week in Washington, our CIO outlines how crypto is gaining bipartisan traction in DC.
• Key takeaway: regulatory clarity is coming faster than expected, and institutions are taking note.
C – March 2025 ETP performance overview
As of 31/03/25 – Source: Hashdex and Bloomberg. Performances in USD.
Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HASH / HDX1) : March: -4.5% | YTD: -19%
Key drivers in March: Bitcoin and Ethereum
March Performance Attribution:
Hashdex Crypto Momentum Factor ETP (HAMO / HDXM): March: -8.5% | YTD: -22%
Key drivers in March: Litecoin, Ethereum and Solana
March Performance Attribution:
Hashdex Multi-Crypto Index ETPs
Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HASH)
• Broad exposure to BTC, ETH, and major altcoins (SOL, XRP, ADA, etc)
• Quarterly rebalancing – evolutive, market cap-based allocation with no caps (weights and number of constituents)
• Largest crypto index ETP in Europe (+$300m AUM)
• ISIN: CH1184151731 | Tickers: HASH (SIX, Euronext) / HDX1 (Xetra)
• Tradable in USD, EUR, CHF, GBP
• Factsheet / Product page / Index Methodology
Hashdex Crypto Momentum Factor ETP (HAMO/HDXM )
• Momentum-based strategy with monthly rebalancing
• Designed to capture trends across large-cap crypto assets
• ISIN: CH1218734544 | Tickers: HAMO (SIX, Euronext) / HDXM (Xetra)
• Tradable in USD, EUR, CHF, GBP
• Factsheet / Product page / Index Methodology
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