The second half of February turned turbulent for investors, with both traditional and crypto markets experiencing significant downturns as risk-off sentiment took hold.

Investors reacted to weakening economic indicators—including signals pointing to potentially lower US GDP this quarter—and rising geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, prompting a move away from risk assets. Traditional safe havens such as gold and US treasuries saw inflows, reinforcing the market’s sensitivity to macro uncertainty.

In addition to being impacted by these macro factors, crypto assets faced headwinds from news about the largest exchange hack in history, memecoin craziness, and a perception the US administration isn’t moving fast enough with its crypto-related initiatives. This was quite a lot of negative newsflow in a short period of time, and as a result crypto suffered, with bitcoin (BTC) hitting a three-month low last week, trading over 20% off its most recent all time high.

So, have these events effectively killed the crypto bull market?

The short answer is no. We don’t see any signs recent events are dragging down the bull market and while short-term volatility can be unsettling, it also serves as a reminder that these phases of crypto cycles rarely move in a straight line. Historical bull runs have always included periods of heightened volatility and sharp corrections. The 2020–2021 rally, for example, saw multiple pullbacks of 20% or more before BTC ultimately reached new highs. The current situation is part of the natural market cycle rather than a definitive trend reversal.

BTC performance, volatility, and corrections since 2010

Let’s go a little deeper into recent events why they do not impact the long-term case for crypto.

Long-term holders are “hodling”

If you look at where bitcoin’s recent selling pressure is coming from, it’s from traders and the most very short-term holders. If we look at BTC’s Spent Volume Average Band, a metric that shows how long the coins were held that are being sold, it’s very clear the overwhelming majority of BTC sold in the last week was short-term trading activity. In fact, almost 90% of the selling activity from February 21 to February 26 was BTC held for less than a month.

Recent BTC selling pressure is from trading activity

We can also see from looking at this data that the average holding period for BTC investors is nearly five years. In other words, long-term holders of BTC do not react to near-term events.

BTC holding period has increased over time

But what should investors make about the recent exchange hack, the ongoing memecoin frenzy, and the perception that President Trump might not deliver on his crypto promises? A few thoughts on these events and why I don’t think they will have a lasting impact on the investment case for the crypto asset class.

• Bybit hack: This exchange breach last week resulted in the loss of 401,000 ETH (approximately $1.3 billion), sending shockwaves through the crypto community. While Bybit has reassured users that losses will be covered, the attack has reignited security concerns, particularly as exchange-related hacks have declined in recent years. Hashdex was not impacted by this event given the very strict vetting criteria we have in place for all of the third parties we interact with, including custodians and exchanges. However, while the incident serves as a stark reminder of the importance of vetted custody solutions, we do not see the hack having a long-term negative impact on the fundamentals we believe are driving opportunities in the crypto asset class.

• Memecoin madness: The recent market decline can also be attributed in part to a liquidity shift driven by the memecoin craze. Tokens such as TRUMP, which saw heavy trading during the presidential inauguration, and LIBRA, which surged this month following the controversy surrounding Argentina’s President Javier Milei, have drawn significant market attention and raised concerns over who benefits from this type of activity. While memecoins often generate short-term excitement, some investors worry that capital has been diverted away from more productive sectors of the crypto economy, increasing overall market vulnerability. This is certainly a valid concern and I believe that the short-term memecoin activity helps make the case for investing in an institutional quality index like the Nasdaq Crypto Index, which has strict criteria for vetting crypto assets. There will continue to be a lot of noise in the crypto space for the foreseeable future, and we think investors are well-served by being able to track a benchmark that has a methodology built to eliminate this type of superfluous activity.

• Trump’s delays: During his campaign, President Trump expressed significant support for crypto, even proposing the US consider a bitcoin stockpile. However, there is a perception among some that his administration has not moved fast enough on this initiative and others. These developments take time—including the important work underway at the SEC’s Crypto Task Force—and we have strong conviction that the regulatory landscape for crypto will continue to dramatically improve in the US in the coming months and years.

Where do we go from here?

Bitcoin’s recent price action has pushed it below its $90,000–$110,000 trading range, and some technical indicators suggest a potential move lower if selling pressure persists. However, there are key levels that could serve as support.

Options market data from Deribit shows that the highest open interest for BTC options is at the $80,000 strike price, indicating that this level could act as a floor in the near term. Historically, such areas of high open interest tend to provide price support as traders hedge positions and market makers adjust exposure.

If macroeconomic conditions stabilize or there is more favorable news toward crypto from the US government, we could see BTC recover to the $90,000–$105,000 range in the coming weeks. In other words, the bull market is fully on track and bitcoin remains in line with performance in previous phases.

Regardless of what happens with near-term prices, the structural fundamentals of the crypto market remain strong, and nothing in the past week suggests a major shift in the broader bull cycle. Institutional adoption continues to progress, with increasing interest in spot bitcoin ETFs and broader integration of blockchain technology in traditional finance. The long-term trajectory remains positive, but as with any market, patience and risk management are key.

As history has shown, bull markets rarely move in a straight line, but investors with a clear, long-term strategy are best positioned to navigate this volatility and capitalize on future opportunities.

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HANetf, Europas första och enda oberoende UCITS ETF och ETC-plattform, är glada över att tillkännage lanseringen av Sprott Physical Uranium ETC (ticker: SPUT) i samarbete med Sprott Asset Management LP, ett av de mest respekterade namnen inom investeringar i ädelmetaller och kritiska material. Den nya ETC kommer att tillåta europeiska investerare att få exponering för fysiskt uran via börshandlade råvaror (ETC) omslag.

SPUT erbjuder europeiska investerare ett direkt sätt att få tillgång till uran, en kritisk komponent i den accelererande kärnkraftsrenässansen. Med länder över hela världen som ökar sitt fokus på kärnenergi som en ren, pålitlig kraftkälla och en pålitlig baskraftkälla för AI-datacenter, ökar efterfrågan på uran, vilket skapar en betydande bristande överensstämmelse mellan utbud och efterfrågan. Detta kommer att vara den första och enda ETC som ger exponering för spotpriset på uran.

HANetf har en stark historia av samarbete med Sprott, efter att ha arbetat tillsammans på den mycket framgångsrika Sprott Uranium Miners UCITS ETF (U3O8), Europas största uranium Mining ETF, Sprott Junior Uranium Miners UCITS ETF (URNJ) och Sprott Copper Miners ESG-Screened UCITS ETF (ASWD). Den nya ETC visar ytterligare styrkan i partnerskapet och mångsidigheten hos ETC-omslaget för att leverera innovativa investeringserbjudanden till den europeiska marknaden.

Detta representerar också HANetfs första notering via sin nya multi-asset ETC-plattform. ETC är noterat på London Stock Exchange och kommer att noteras på Xetra i mars.

John Ciampaglia, VD för Sprott Asset Management, kommenterar:”Vi tror att uran har mycket övertygande långsiktiga grunder. I takt med att globala megatrender inom energi och teknik som kärnkraftens återuppkomst, spridningen av energihungriga AI-datacenter och strävan efter nettonollmål fortsätter, har investerarnas intresse för uran ökat.

”Vi är glada över att utöka vårt redan framgångsrika partnerskap med HANetf genom att erbjuda europeiska investerare tillgång till de bekväma, transparenta strategier för fysiska råvaror som Sprott Asset Management är känt för.”

Hector McNeil, medgrundare och co-VD för HANetf, kommenterar:”Vi är glada över att återigen samarbeta med Sprott Asset Management för att få ut denna unika ETC på marknaden. SPUT är ett bevis på vårt gemensamma engagemang för innovation och att ge investerare tillgång till mycket eftertraktade råvaror. Lanseringen representerar också HANetfs första notering på sin nya multi-asset ETC-plattform, designad för att leverera lösningar för investerare som söker tillgång till ett brett utbud av tillgångsklasser.

HANetf tillåter inte bara sina kunder att utfärda europeiska ETPer på ett kostnads- och tidseffektivt sätt, det hjälper också till att ta deras mervärde IP och innehåll till europeiska investerare för att stödja deras investeringsbeslut i dessa unika och spännande investeringsteman. Att vara en del av framgången med det ursprungliga Gold ETC för att ta med den första Uranium ETC är lika spännande och banbrytande.”