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Weak Growth Data Hits Equities, but China A Shares Buck the Trend
Weak Growth Data Hits Equities, but China A Shares Buck the Trend ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly – Weak Growth Data Hits Equities, but China A Shares Buck the Trend
Highlights
- Cocoa jumps nearly 10% in 2 weeks as Ebola fears grow.
- China A-Shares buck the global equity trend and continue to rally.
- Growth fears and volatility weighs on commodity currencies, with further losses expected.
Global equity markets and cyclical metals ended the week lower as US and European PMIs, US durable goods orders and the German IFO index came in lower than expected. China A-shares bucked the trend, with a better-than-expected flash PMI reading adding support to the market. US payrolls will be the centre of attention this week as the market judges the capacity of the US economy to absorb an expected interest rate hike in H1 2015. A strong reading will likely to be US dollar positive, which will likely keep pressure on commodities. In the medium-term, however, we believe US economic strength will ultimately be positive for global growth and commodity demand and we view commodities as good value at current prices.
Commodities
Cocoa jumps nearly 10% in 2 weeks as Ebola fears grow. Following the previous week’s 5.4% gain, cocoa prices continue to soar. With over 70% of produced in Africa, there are fears that the spread of Ebola will hinder global supply. Côte Ivoire, which produces over 30% of global supply was been on track to produce a record high output this year. If the disease hits the country, global supply will tighten amid strong demand growth. US natural gas stocks increased by 97 billion cubic feet in the week ending September 19. This compares to an expected increase of about 100 billion cubic feet and sent prices 1.0% higher last week. Most industrial metal prices were hit by weaker-than-expected US PMIs and durable goods orders.
Equities
China A-Shares buck the global equity trend and continue to rally. Last week saw the MSCI China A index gaining 0.9% on better manufacturing PMI for September while the US and Eurozone manufacturing PMI disappointed again. The MSCI China A index has been trading above its 50 and 200 day moving averages since end of July, suggesting further potential rise in the near term. Meanwhile, lower-than-expected Michigan confidence added to the downward pressure in the US with the Russell 2000® Index dropping 4.2% over the past week. Concerns over the ECB’s capacity to restore growth in the Eurozone economy has weighed on European equity benchmarks, sending short European indices as well as the EURO STOXX 50® Investable Volatility Index upward again, by 5.7% on average for the short indices and 2.6% for the volatility index.
Currencies
Growth fears and volatility weighs on commodity currencies, with further losses expected. ‘Commodity currencies’ were the worst performing last week with the currencies of major commodity producers Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Norway coming under pressure. Volatility has risen across a number of asset classes, including the FX market, as investor uncertainty has risen on anticipation of US rate hikes in the new year. Meanwhile, a soft patch for commodity prices (also partly a reflection of concerns over global growth) has also weighed on commodity currencies. There may be some scope for a rebound in the Canadian dollar and Norwegian Krone if oil prices can rebound, but we expect that further downside is likely for the Australian and New Zealand Dollars. Concerns over China’s economic strength will likely weigh on the AUD, while NZD is likely to experience further weakness after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand revealed it had sold the largest amount of currency in seven years to deflate the currency
Important Information
This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).
From 18 to 19 November 2024, Brazil will host the G20 summit in Rio for the first time as the focus of the world’s most important platform for global economic cooperation.
The coalition, which includes the USA, China, India, the E U and, most recently, the African Union, represents the world’s most important economies, which, according to OECD figures, account for around 80 per cent of global gross domestic product, 75 per cent of world trade and two thirds of the world’s population.
Since Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) took up his third uninterrupted term of office at the beginning of 2023, he has spent a lot of time abroad to improve his country’s image in the world. His efforts could pay off. A recent Pew Research survey found that most Brazilian adults are optimistic about their country’s status as an international power.
In addition to the G20, Brazil is also set to host other high-profile events such as the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) and the BRICS summit (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) in 2025, while also seeking membership of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
In the almost three years since Brazil initiated its formal accession process for OECD membership, the country has achieved many milestones on the road to this goal. If successful, Brazil would be in a unique position to influence the increasing geopolitical and economic competition between industrialised and developing countries, as it is the only country to be represented in the BRICS, the G20 and the OECD simultaneously.
As the eighth largest economy in the world and the largest economy in Latin America, Brazil could be a strong link in the global discourse on key issues for the Global South (according to UN Trade and Development, the Global South essentially comprises Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia excluding Israel, Japan and South Korea, and Oceania excluding Australia and New Zealand).
These issues include, above all, the fight against hunger, poverty and inequality, sustainable development and the reform of global governance. If Brazil is able to achieve political and financial commitments to progress on priorities such as digital infrastructure, this could lead not only to an increase in Brazil’s GDP, but also to a narrowing of the economic and urban-rural divide and a reduction in gender inequality. Consider that the introduction of a relatively new instant money transfer platform operated by the central bank, known as Pix, has already promoted financial inclusion and increased access to banking services from around 70 per cent of the population to more than 84 per cent (source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace).
We expect that an OECD seal of approval for Brazil will also encourage global investors seeking the assurance of the Coalition’s high standards for the ease of doing business. A seat at the table would give Brazil a stronger voice in shaping best practices and global frameworks for rapidly evolving technology standards. Brazilian companies specialising in artificial intelligence and financial technology are already among the largest in South America.
As the largest oil producer in Latin America, resource-rich Brazil is a leader in the energy sector, as it is one of the ten largest oil producers in the world (according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Brazil produced 4 per cent of the world’s total oil production at the end of 2023). However, the country’s largest sector is finance, with a weighting of more than 36 per cent according to the MSCI Brazil Index.
Central bank in interest rate hike mode
High government spending continues to be a major problem. In our opinion, any reduction in this spending would give the country’s capital markets cause for optimism. Meanwhile, Brazil is an exception to the global trend of falling interest rates: In September, Brazil’s central bank raised interest rates to curb inflationary pressures. The market expects the Brazilian real to remain stable or appreciate slightly in the near future, partly due to falling US interest rates. We see this as a potential advantage for foreign investors in Brazil.
It is also encouraging to see that progress is being made on Brazil’s long-awaited VAT reform, which could further boost the private sector as efficiency gains from a simpler tax system would favour investment.
Growth in Brazil’s manufacturing and services sectors accelerated in September as output in both sectors increased, indicating strong growth in economic activity. In addition, the Brazilian market is currently trading at valuations that we consider favourable. Improved conditions in Brazil’s manufacturing sector have been driven by a resurgence in production, stronger job creation and a pick-up in sales growth, according to S&P Global. At the end of September, Brazil’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index was surpassed only by India, rising to 53.2 (from 50.4 in August; readings above 50 indicate expansion).
Chart 1: Brazilian Purchasing Managers’ Index
Source: FactSet, Markit Economics
Expectations are also high that Brazil will experience an economic boost in 2027, having won the historic bid to host the FIFA Women’s World Cup – a first not only for Brazil, but for the whole of South America.
Over the near term, we believe investors should stay attuned to the opportunities in Brazil and may find what we consider an attractive entry point into this large and diverse market.
Chart 2: The valuations of Latin American equities look favourable
Attractive valuations compared to industrialised countries, emerging markets and own history
Chart 3: Latin American equities offer high dividends
High dividend yield compared to industrialised countries, emerging markets and own history
From Dina Ting, Head of Global Index Portfolio Management at Franklin Templeton
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