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US Equities Outpace Eurozone, as USD Strength Hits Commodities (For Now)
ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly – US Equities Outpace Eurozone, as USD Strength Hits Commodities (For Now)
Highlights
- Arabica coffee jumps over 14% in a week on supply fears.
- US energy infrastructure continues to benefit from the surge in US oil supply.
- US jobs confirm robust recovery and fuel further USD upside momentum.
While negative sentiment towards commodities and global equities prevailed last week, stronger fundamentals helped to lift the US energy infrastructure sector and the US Dollar. The striking improvement in the US economy and labour market should be supportive of cyclical assets once investors return to focus on the positive underlying conditions. With US non-farm payrolls surprising the market on the upside last week, investors will be keeping a close eye on the FOMC minutes this week as the recent conservative tone of the Fed could change quickly if the economic rebound continues, keeping USD buoyant.
Commodities
Arabica coffee jumps over 14% in a week on supply fears. Brazil’s worst drought in decades saw Arabica coffee prices soaring 88% since the beginning of the year. Prices have been rising on the back of fears that continued dry weather in Brazil, the biggest producer, might negatively impact next year crop. However, exports continued to increase despite fears of 2015 tightness. Wheat also continued to rise last week, as elevated domestic prices for the grain in Russia rendered Russian supply non-competitive on the market. Russia is a major player in the wheat market, accounting for 10% of global wheat exports in 2013. Meanwhile, nickel lost over 7% last week, as LME stocks surged 37% this year. However, with Indonesia, the biggest producer, sticking to an ore export ban that has already reduced the expected surplus, the recent correction appears excessive.
Equities
US energy infrastructure continues to benefit from the surge in US oil supply. The Solactive US Energy Infrastructure MLP Index TR increased by 1.3% as US oil supply nears its level 30 years ago. Meanwhile, president Draghi indicated last Thursday that it will continue to keep policy supportive of the Eurozone economy, keeping interest rate low at 0.5%. The ECB meeting failed however to support European stocks, down for the second consecutive week on lower-than-expected manufacturing PMI for September, reinforcing growth worries in the region. Short European indices rose 6% on average over the past week while the EURO STOXX 50® Investable Volatility Index witnessed its highest weekly gain since February 2013, up 10.1% over the same period. In contrast, the MSCI China A Index posted gains for the second week in a row supported by better official manufacturing activity in September.
Currencies
US jobs confirm robust recovery and fuel further USD upside momentum. Better-than-expected US jobs highlighted the underlying strength of the labour market and the rising potential of household consumption. Indeed, the unemployment rate dropped below 6% for the first time in six years. While investors will be keeping a close eye on the FOMC minutes this week, the recent conservative tone of the Fed is likely to change quickly if the strength across the economy continues. The dual mandate of the Fed is being confirmed on the jobs front, and we expect inflationary expectations too begin to follow and to move the Fed onto a tightening path in H1 2015. Such expectations necessarily will be supportive of further broad based USD strength. Meanwhile, the UK growth momentum continues to fade. Bank of England policymakers are split on when to rate hikes, we expect the latest developments to help unify the Board, and keep downward pressure on GBP.
Important Information
This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).
Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP, den största kryptoindexprodukten i Europa med över 500 miljoner USD i AUM, har nominerats till ETF Stream Awards 2024, i kategorin ”Digital Assets ETP Of The Year”!
Hashdex är glada över att se sitt engagemang för att tillhandahålla innovativ, reglerad tillgång till kryptotillgångsklassen erkänd. Detta erkännande belyser deras ledarskap när det gäller att utveckla kryptoinvesteringslösningar.
Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP, den största kryptoindexprodukten i Europa med över 500 miljoner USD i AUM, har nominerats till ETF Stream Awards 2024, i kategorin ”Digital Assets ETP Of The Year”!
Detta erkännande belyser Hashdex engagemang för att tillhandahålla innovativa, robusta produkter som förenklar tillgången till kryptotillgångarnas värld. HDX1 erbjuder diversifierad exponering och tydlighet på en komplex marknad, vilket förkroppsligar Hashdex uppdrag att föra kryptons framtid in i nutiden av investeringar.
Prisutdelningen äger rum den 28 november i London, där Hashdex kommer att ansluta sig till branschens främsta ETF-spelare.
For years, India has been ramping up to contend with China as the region’s top technology leader. Pandemic-era supply chain issues hastened its successes in luring foreign tech firms. Now, equity investment flows are following suit. Dina Ting, Head of Global Index Portfolio Management at Franklin Templeton, highlights a few factors behind how the subcontinent is benefiting from rotational flows.
As China braces for renewed friction over President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats, investor flows may be following similar currents as those of regional supply chain shifts—that is to say, diversifying from China and toward opportunities in markets such as India and Japan.
After the People’s Bank of China revealed the most aggressive stimulus package it’s rolled out since the COVID-19 pandemic, China stock markets saw a short-lived rally at the end of September. A lack of detailed measures targeting consumption seems to have disappointed investors and led the bullish sentiment to deflate.
Adding to the country’s economic woes are societal changes like falling birthrates and a rapidly ageing population. Estimates by China’s National Health Commission suggest the country’s elderly population will grow to over 400 million by about 2035. To better cope with this crisis, China’s statutory retirement age will be extended, starting in January 2025, for the first time since the 1950s.
India investors, meanwhile, are finding the subcontinent—which has already overtaken China as the world’s most populous nation—appealing for its relative immunity to global risks, given its domestic-driven economy. Its younger labor force has also attracted a market pivot to this prime alternative to China manufacturing. For the 12-month period prior to China’s September 2024 stimulus announcement, US-listed India equity exchange traded funds (ETFs) garnered US$7.5 billion in flows—a sharp contrast to the US$6 billion in outflows experienced by China ETFs over the same period.1
Judging by India’s impressive initial public offering (IPO) environment, businesses there are feeling the optimism. The country’s 258 IPOs accounted for 30% of the global total by number by the end of September and 12% by the amount of money raised, in an economy that makes up just over 3% of global GDP.2
And investors in India are taking note. Aided by the improving digitalization of finance and increased internet access, India’s middle class is also an expanding retail investor class. By one measure, nationwide stock trading accounts nearly tripled from 2019 to 2023 to roughly 140 million.3
In dollar terms, total returns for Indian stocks have risen by 93% over the past five years, compared with about a 24% rise overall for emerging markets and drop of 5% for China stocks over the same period.
Many investors seeking to better diversify emerging market exposure or layer in targeted broad country allocation can tap single-country exchange-traded strategies.
Emerging markets in the Asia region are not the only beneficiaries of a potential US-China trade war. Earlier this year, investors were already driving up flows into Japan ETFs. Market watchers consider Japanese stocks to be indirect beneficiaries of Trump’s reflationary economic policy—which may keep interest rates high, thereby boosting the dollar and weakening the yen to the advantage of Japanese exporters.
The MSCI Japan Index is up nearly 21% in US dollar terms in the one-year period ending October 31, 2024. Consumer discretionary, financials and industrials holdings led gains during this time.
An element of uncertainty around the policies of a second Trump term, however, are still causing jitters around Asia, especially given the president-elect’s transactional approach to international relations.
Fortunately, Japan is seeing a renaissance in its semiconductor industry for which Tokyo is investing heavily (more than US$25 billion through 2025) and has established strong multilateral trade partnerships.
Japan has already elevated its role in global supply chain reorganization in recent years, and seeks to take advantage of its clout in joint free trade initiatives, such as the US’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity to strengthen its regional supply-chain leadership.
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