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US Debt Stand-Off Keeps Markets on Edge

Publicerad

11 år sedan

den

16 oktober, 2013

US Debt Stand-Off Keeps Markets on Edge. The US fiscal and debt impasse continues to whipsaw markets, with gold falling below US$1,300oz last week on indications a short-term debt ceiling increase might find bipartisan agreement. However, with the estimated 17 October debt ceiling breach looming and no further progress over the weekend, markets are back in risk-off mode, with gold pushing higher again. Political misjudgement and resulting default (or even near default) would not just severely damage the US economy and the longer term faith in the US government’s commitment to repaying its debt, but would also have large negative reverberations across global financial markets and economies. Most investors appear to be betting that the consequences are so huge that even US politicians will eventually act rationally and find agreement. The risk, however, is that irreparable damage has already been done to investors’ long-term faith in the US’s commitment to honouring its debt obligations, further accelerating investors search for alternatives to the US dollar as a reserve asset. With Europe still facing serious structural issues and China not yet ready to step up to the plate, in our view, gold’s role as an alternative hard currency and reserve diversifier with continue to grow.

Physical gold ETPs saw US$79mn of outflows last week as a shortterm fix to the US debt stand-off seemed imminent. The gold price dropped below the US$1,300oz level last week after reports indicated an agreement between Obama and the House Republicans on a temporary increase in the debt ceiling was near. However, over the weekend little progress was made on finding temporary or permanent solution, and markets have again started to increase allocations to perceived safe haven assets such as gold.

ETFS Wheat (WEAT) records the biggest inflows in over five years, totalling US$19.7mn, on falling inventories. The wheat price has risen substantially over the past month, achieving over an 8% gain, as the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) cut its estimate of the stock to disappearance ratio for the major wheat exporters. Given the low level of inventories relative to consumption and exports, any sudden change in weather could produce a sharp reaction in wheat prices. Lack of new data from the USDA following the federal shutdown is also likely to contribute to market uncertainty.

ETFS Physical Platinum (PHPT) receives US$12.7mn of inflows, the largest since May, as the Amplats strike continues into its 2nd week. The strike, that started on September 27, is costing the company about 3,100 ounces of output a day. Around 0.8% of supply has so far been taken off the market by the action. While the impact on total platinum production is so far negligible, investors have already positioned themselves for a potential worsening of the situation that could lead to a repetition of last year events. South African disruptions remain a potential short-term catalyst for platinum price rally.

Long silver ETPs record the fifth consecutive week of inflows, as the metal’s hybrid characteristics attract investors’ interest. Inflows amounted to US$2.7mn last week. While so far his year the silver price has been weighed down by the generally bearish sentiment towards gold, the recovery in China and the US could favour silver in the next months. With over 50% of its demand coming from the industry, silver is well positioned to benefit from a pick-up in the global manufacturing activity. At the same time its elevated correlation with gold provides investors with a hedge against a potential worst case scenario in the US.

Key events to watch this week. The main focus of markets this week will continue to be on progress on US debt/fiscal negotiations. Chinese GDP and industrial production will also be a key focus of markets. Cyclical commodities are likely to benefit from any better-than-expected data. Eurozone industrial production and car registrations will also be released with implication for cyclicals and platinum in particular.

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

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BNQC ETC spårar terminskontrakt på Brent Crude Oil

Publicerad

7 minuter sedan

den

18 december, 2024

Redaktionen

BNPP RICI Enhanced Brent Öl (TR) ETC (BNQC ETC) med ISIN DE000PB6R1B1, försöker följa RICI Enhanced Brent Crude Oil-index. RICI Enhanced Brent Crude Oil-index spårar priset på terminskontrakt på Brent Crude Oil.

Denna ETCs TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 1,00 % p.a. BNPP RICI Enhanced Brent Öl (TR) ETC är den största ETC som följer RICI Enhanced Brent Crude Oil-index. Denna ETC replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda syntetiskt med en swap.

BNPP RICI Enhanced Brent Öl (TR) ETC är en mycket liten ETC med 5 miljoner euro förvaltade tillgångar. Denna ETC lanserades den 2 september 2016 och har sin hemvist i Nederländerna.

Information

ISIN	DE000PB6R1B1
Securities identification number (German WKN)	PB6R1B
Bloomberg	BNQC GY
Reuters	BNQC.DE
Type	ETC
Entitlement	0.00925068
Currency	EUR
Currency hedged	No
Roll optimized	Yes
Leveraged	No
Physical delivery	No
Total Return	Yes
Exchange	Frankfurt Stock Exchange (Regulated Market – Xetra®), Stuttgart Stock Exchange
Trading periods	08:15 am – 20:00 pm
Maturity	open end

Handla BNQC ETC

BNPP RICI Enhanced Brent Öl (TR) ETC (BNQC ETC) är en europeisk börshandlad produkt. Denna ETC handlas på Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETC genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

Börs	Valuta	Kortnamn
XETRA	EUR	BNQC

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VALOUR RNDR SEK, en börshandlad produkt som spårar Render

Publicerad

1 timme sedan

den

18 december, 2024

Redaktionen

Valour Render (RENDER) SEK (VALOUR RNDR SEK) with ISIN CH1108679288, är en börshandlad produkt (ETP) som spårar RENDER, den ursprungliga kryptovalutan i Render Network. Render utnyttjar blockchain-teknik för att decentralisera GPU-baserad rendering, vilket ger skapare kostnadseffektiv och skalbar tillgång till beräkningskraft för visuella effekter, spel och design.

Render-nätverket är designat för att stärka digital kreativitet och kopplar samman användare som söker renderingstjänster med GPU-ägare, vilket optimerar resurser och minskar kostnaderna. RENDER-tokens används för betalning och incitament för deltagare i nätverket, vilket möjliggör sömlöst samarbete över det kreativa ekosystemet. RENDER-innehavare stödjer en vision om decentraliserad datoranvändning, som främjar innovation och tillgänglighet inom den digitala konst- och underhållningsindustrin.

Beskrivning

Valour’s Certificate-produktlinje erbjuder börshandlade produkter som uppfyller kraven, var och en helt säkrad av sina respektive digitala tillgångar. För att säkerställa säker kylförvaring samarbetar Valour med nivå 1-licensierade förvaringsinstitut som Copper. Handlade på reglerade börser och MTFer ger dessa certifikat transparent prissättning och likviditet, vilket stärker investerarnas förtroende för säkra digitala tillgångsinvesteringar. Valours grundprospekt är godkända av Finansinspektionen och uppfyller EUs krav på fullständighet, tydlighet och konsekvens.

Namn	Valour Render SEK
Emittent	Valour Inc
Basvaluta	SEK
Föraltningskostnad	1,9%
ISIN	CH1108679288
Valoren	110867928
WKN	A4A55Q
Förfallodag	Open-ended

Handla VALOUR RNDR SEK

Valour Render (RENDER) SEK (VALOUR RNDR SEK) är en europeisk börshandlad produkt som handlas på bland annat Spotlight Stock Market.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETP genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest, Levler och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

Börs	Valuta	Kortnamn
Spotlight Stock Market	SEK	VALOUR RNDR SEK

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Which crypto assets will outperform Bitcoin in 2025?

Publicerad

22 timmar sedan

den

17 december, 2024

Redaktionen

The outcome of the US election last month continues to reverberate through the crypto markets. The Nasdaq Crypto IndexTM (NCITM) has risen over 57% since November 5, fueled by widespread optimism over the direction of digital asset policy in the US.

As I wrote in a previous note, crypto assets tend to follow a four-year cycle that includes a bull phase of roughly 12 months, followed by a year-long bear market, and then a two-year recovery period. In the previous two bull markets, altcoins (i.e., everything outside of BTC) have significantly outperformed the largest crypto asset.

I believe we’ve entered a bull market, reinforced by the macro environment and US election outcomes. But there’s another data point signaling a bull market—the outperformance of the NCITM relative to BTC.¹ In the last three months, the NCITM has had a higher return than BTC (78.0% vs. 76.5%) and since the election, the NCITM has outperformed BTC by 6.8%.

Crypto Asset Performance

So, which specific aspects of crypto are poised for outperformance this time around?

One key area to watch is smart contract projects, platforms that will allow users to transact not only information but value and property as well. We believe these platforms and applications will outperform BTC in the next 12-18 months as they compete for users and lay the groundwork for decentralized applications. On the back of the infrastructure developments we have seen in this area in the last few years, new applications are emerging across AI, gaming, and many other areas as tokenization continues to expand.

We also believe that new regulatory progress in 2025 will be more beneficial to these applications than to Bitcoin specifically, because Bitcoin already has regulatory clarity and a well-developed capital markets structure, with the growth of ETFs, options, and futures. In the US and Europe, this legislative and regulatory clarity that will benefit altcoins may include:

• Market structure legislation: Proposals like FIT21 will remove ambiguities regarding the commodity vs. security status of crypto assets, as well as create paths to registration that could boost adoption in the US.

• Stablecoin legislation / MiCA implementation: Both will drive the adoption of stablecoins in the US and Europe, expanding the stablecoin phenomenon beyond just emerging markets.

• Repeal of SAB121: When this obstacle is removed and US banks can hold crypto for their clients, banks and brokerages will increase their crypto trading and custody offerings, which will benefit altcoins the most.

• New ETF launches: With the new SEC chair, there are renewed hopes for additional ETF approvals, including indices and single assets like Solana and XRP. There’s still much uncertainty here, but new assets having ETFs as on-ramps is highly positive.

In addition to Bitcoin developing as an emerging digital store of wealth and smart contract platforms becoming a new way to exchange information, value, and property, there are three other altcoin use cases we believe will benefit in the coming year:

DeFi: Projects aimed at creating an internet-based financial system, running on smart contract platforms, will create a new global capital markets infrastructure for payments, with stablecoins and tokenized money market funds being the first important use cases.
Web3: A new iteration of the internet that will let us own our data and make the internet decentralized and more usable for things like AI agents and other innovations.
Digital Culture: An emerging digital-native generation will have more demand to own digital assets and collectibles, with gaming being a natural first application.

If we compare crypto to the internet, this industry is like the internet in the 1990s and Bitcoin could be compared to email—the only application most people hear about. But fast forward 20 years and while email is still very useful, it has not been the internet’s application that created the most societal value. We believe this could be true for how Bitcoin is currently viewed relative to crypto.

Benefits of diversification

Our team at Hashdex are firm believers that getting broad exposure to this market is necessary to capture the growth we believe we will experience in these other areas. Indices like the Nasdaq Crypto IndexTM (NCITM) can provide broader market exposure and, as crypto matures as an asset class, better risk-adjusted returns. Additionally, indices provide more significant optionality as investors don’t need to rely on an active manager to do this for them. The complexity and fast-evolving nature of crypto make it hard to pick individual winners and an index simplifies investing by offering a balanced, data-driven selection of assets that can align with modern portfolio theory principles.

This is why index ETFs have been at the core of our mission. Accessing crypto through these familiar structures allows investors to benefit from the growth of this asset class with minimal friction. For most investors, we most often recommend a very small allocation to crypto, from 1% to 5%. We strongly believe that a benchmark like the NCITM is an excellent way to “buy the market” and benefit from a strategic allocation into this promising asset class.

[1] The Nasdaq Crypto Index includes Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Ripple, Cardano, Chainlink, Avalanche, Litecoin, Polygon, and Uniswap as of 9/30/24