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US Crude Dip Attracts Inflows
ETF Securities Commodity ETP Weekly US Crude Dip Attracts Inflows
22nd consecutive week of inflows into long WTI ETPs.
Greek bailout extension triggers outflows from ETFS Physical Gold (PHAU).
Platinum sees inflows as major producer cuts capital spending.
Depressed wheat prices attract inflows into long wheat ETPs.
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China’s interest rate cuts on the weekend set the tone for another week which looks to be dominated by monetary policy activity. A series of central bank meetings globally will keep investors focused on the possibility of any further surprise monetary loosening in response to deflationary pressures. Janet Yellen’s testimony to congress last week highlighted the importance of the state of the economy to the pace of any US interest normalisation. This will encourage investors to pay even closer attention to the US non-farm payrolls reading due at the end of the week.
22nd consecutive week of inflows into long WTI ETPs. Investors continue to demand exposure to US crude with long WTI ETPs drawing US$50.7mn of inflows as the price remains at attractively low levels. This week WTI fell considerably more than its global counterpart causing the spread between crude benchmarks to widen to the highest level in 13 months. The 5.8% weekly decline in WTI was driven by reports that US crude inventory increased by twice as much as forecasted last week, stoking fears that shale oil is causing a supply glut in the US oil market.
Greek bailout extension triggers outflows from ETFS Physical Gold (PHAU). Euro group finance ministers reached an accord to provide Greece with four further months of bailout funds if certain conditions surrounding Greece’s budget, spending and tax collection are met. The outcome sent equity indices to record levels and caused investors to shed safe haven assets. As a result, PHAU witnessed US$33mn of outflows, reversing inflows from the prior week. The gold price fell in response to the deal but pared losses as Janet Yellen’s testimony to congress was interpreted relatively dovishly by the market.
Platinum sees inflows as major producer cuts capital spending. Platinum hit a five year low during the week before rallying 0.9% as Impala, the world’s second largest platinum producer, revealed that it intends to cut capital expenditure over the next two years in response to low platinum prices. Last month saw US$67mn flow into long platinum ETPs as investors positioned themselves for a price recovery from tighter supply conditions.
Depressed wheat prices attract inflows into long wheat ETPs. ETFS Wheat (WEAT) witnessed the largest inflow since July last year. Investors are viewing the current low price level as a potential buying opportunity. Prices have fallen 14.7% YTD as US wheat exports experience tough competition on international markets from European competitors. Furthermore, bearish sentiment has been stimulated by a USDA report which forecasted that US wheat inventory levels will reach a multi-year high in the 2015/16 crop year.
Key events to watch this week. Central bank meetings at the European Central bank, Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Bank of Canada will ensure monetary policy remains the key focus for investors next week. In the US, nonfarm payrolls will closely watched as it will be a good indication of whether the US economy’s robust recovery remains on track and give policymakers further reason to tighten monetary conditions.
Video Presentation
Josh Tiwana, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
Important Information
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.
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Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
Since President Trump appointed Mark Uyeda as acting SEC chair two months ago, many investigations into crypto businesses have been dropped, as the SEC moves away from regulation by enforcement and works to create a framework for digital assets. As regulations become clearer and news flow turns more positive, crypto prices—which dropped sharply this week—should begin to better reflect the new regulatory landscape in the US.
We believe this regulatory shift could ultimately help trigger the next leg of the current bull run, as investors better understand the significance of regulatory clarity and seek to acquire bitcoin and altcoins at what we believe are currently very favorable levels.
Market Highlights
SEC Dismisses Crypto Enforcement Actions
The SEC dropped its enforcement actions against crypto-related companies Kraken, Consensys, and Cumberland DRW.
This indicates a shift in SEC’s regulatory approach, favoring clearer guidelines over enforcement actions. Such a pivot could foster a more predictable environment, encouraging innovation within the sector.
Banks to Engage in Crypto Activities
The FDIC has rescinded previous guidelines which prevented financial institutions from engaging with crypto activities without prior sign-off.
By removing bureaucratic hurdles, banks may more readily offer crypto-related services, potentially leading to broader adoption and integration of digital assets.
Bitcoin ETFs Inflow Streak Surpassed $1 Billion
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a 10-day inflow streak exceeding $1 billion marking the longest such streak in 2025.
This underscores growing institutional and retail investor confidence in Bitcoin as an asset class that helps increase market stability and possibly paving the way for the approval of other crypto-based financial products.
Market Metrics
All NCITM constituents had negative performance last week, with XRP (-10.8%) and UNI (-10.7%) seeing the steepest declines. ETH also experienced a sharp drop (-9.1%), contributing to NCITM’s underperformance relative to BTC (-2.9%). The NCITM -4.2% decline reflects a broader risk-off sentiment in the crypto market, as investors reassess their positions amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.
NCITM (-4.2%) extended its underperformance last week, deepening year-to-date losses. Traditional indices like the S&P 500 (-1.5%) and Nasdaq 100 (-2.4%) saw smaller declines. The gap between crypto and other risk assets continues to widen, while gold has emerged as the top performer in 2025, gaining nearly 20% amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. This trend highlights a growing risk-off sentiment, with investors shifting toward defensive assets and away from high-volatility investments.
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