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Uncertainty Drives Demand for Safe Havens
ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly Uncertainty Drives Demand for Safe Havens
Highlights
Fears of oversupply send crude prices lower.
Greek political uncertainty supports gold prices.
US Dollar heads lower on job report.
With the political situation in Greece remaining precarious and oil prices finding new lows, perception of risk is rising. Greek political uncertainty weighed on European equities last week, while gold miners benefited from safe haven buying. Despite a robust labour report, the US Dollar weakened last week on lower than expected wage growth. This should provide some relief to commodities this week.
Commodities
Fears of oversupply send crude prices lower. Crude benchmarks resumed their drop this week as WTI breached the US$50/bbl level for the first time in over five years. Prices headed down after reports revealed both the Soviet Union and the US are producing at the highest levels in decades, fuelling investor fears of a global supply glut. Representatives from OPEC member states reiterated plans to keep production at current levels and highlighted non-OPEC producers as responsible for the continued slide in oil prices. However, with oil rig counts already starting to fall, we believe oil supply will tighten later in the second half of the year. Elsewhere, coffee and soybean oil experienced a 6.2% and 5.0% respective rally on the week, following forecasts of high temperatures and dryness in Brazil, the world’s largest producer of both commodities. Predictions that high pressure weather patterns would limit rainfall and hinder production through to mid-January drove prices higher.
Equities
Greek political uncertainty supports gold prices. Gold futures ended the week up 2.1% at US$1,209/oz, a three week high, as fears mounted over the potential exit of Greece from the European currency bloc. The primary beneficiary of the rise in the gold price has been gold mining stocks which surged 7.2%. Choppy trading dominated European stock markets last week, with prices initially falling on rumors Angela Merkel is prepared for a “Grexit” scenario, and then recovering on stronger indications that Mario Draghi will include sovereign bonds in the ECB’s monetary stimulus measures. The swings led to a 3.8% increase in the EURO STOXX 50® Investable Volatility Index. Oil prices continued to grind lower this week. Brent and WTI have dropped by approximately 54% since June last year and low prices are starting to have a negative impact on energy-related stocks globally, with the Solactive US Energy Infrastructure MLP Index sliding 3.1% over the past week.
Currencies
US Dollar heads lower on job report. The US Dollar unexpectedly fell last week after non-farm payroll release revealed the biggest fall in US wages in over 8 years in December, tainting an otherwise strong report on the labour market. Consensus among economists remains for interest rates to rise by June 2015, but moderating strength in the labour market might prompt the Fed to delay this process. Meanwhile, the British Pound will remain under pressure this week, should the CPI release on Tuesday show a marked slowdown. Expectations are for the headline reading to highlight the slowest pace of growth since 2002, potentially dampening the appeal of the British Pound and curbing the Bank of England’s scope to normalize monetary policy in 2015. Consumer price inflation fell into negative territory in the Eurozone in December, putting further pressure on the European Central Bank to intervene. While Merkel openly opposed the inclusion of sovereign debt in the mix of quantitative easing, markets are increasingly pricing it in. We expect the euro to remain under pressure against most G10 currencies this week.
Important Information
This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).
Stablecoins are digital currencies tied to assets like the U.S. dollar, offering the price stability needed for payments. They maintain their peg by being backed 1:1 by their underlying fiat currency, with issuers holding equivalent amounts in cash and cash equivalents, making stablecoins a digital representation of those reserves. Their market has doubled to over $235 billion, with daily usage nearly doubling in two years.
Why are stablecoins making headlines now?
Due to their clear product-market fit and growing mainstream adoption, stablecoins have become a top priority for regulation, with both industry leaders and policymakers calling for swift action.
On April 4, the Securities and Exchange Commission’s Division of Corporation Finance finally clarified that stablecoins are not securities if backed one-for-one by USD or similar assets and used for payments or value storage. These “Covered Stablecoins” are not marketed as investments, lack profit incentives, and include protections like reserves, making securities law registration unnecessary for issuance or redemption.
The GENIUS Act, introduced in February and advanced by the U.S. Senate Banking Committee in March, marks a major step toward creating a clear legal framework for stablecoin issuance and oversight. This clarity is driving momentum as Fidelity is set to launch its own stablecoin, and Bank of America is preparing to follow it once legislation is finalized.
Globally, the European Union’s Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) framework has already come into effect, reinforcing a broader shift toward formal integration of stablecoins into traditional finance. These developments reflect a growing consensus that stablecoins are emerging as essential infrastructure for global payments, treasury management, and digital asset adoption.
What are the benefits of stablecoins?
Stablecoins are digital currencies designed for fast, low-cost, and stable transactions. Since their launch in 2014, they’ve become a go-to tool for online payments, especially cross-border transfers. As they’re pegged to stable assets like the U.S. dollar or euro, they avoid the wild price swings seen in other cryptocurrencies.
They’re accessible to anyone with internet, making them especially valuable in regions with high inflation or limited banking access, like Argentina or Turkey.
With some built on public blockchains, stablecoins offer transparency, letting users track transfers and supply in real time. For institutions, they also simplify treasury management by acting as efficient digital cash that can be deployed instantly.
Who are the major players in the stablecoin race?
Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC), the two largest stablecoin issuers, collectively hold over $204 billion in U.S. Treasuries, making them the 14th largest holders globally. Their combined treasury holdings surpass those of entire nations, including Norway and Brazil.
USDT leads with $144 billion in circulation; USDC, backed by Coinbase and known for compliance, has become a trusted digital dollar across global finance.
Why stablecoins matter: A revenue engine for blockchains
Stablecoins generate steady revenue for blockchains like Ethereum and Solana by driving transaction fees with each transfer. With trillions in annual volume, they help sustain network activity beyond speculation.
On Ethereum, for example, USDT and USDC transactions are major contributors to daily gas fees. Year to date, Tether ranks #3 and USDC ranks #5 in terms of total gas consumed. Tether and Circle also dominate daily transaction activity on Ethereum, averaging approximately 12 million and 6 million transactions per day, respectively, making them the top two entities on the network by daily transaction count.
Meanwhile, on Solana, stablecoin activity has surged, helping sustain validator rewards and strengthen protocol economics. In addition to the mainstream utility, stablecoins represent reliable, protocol-level cash flow, making them crypto’s killer use case.
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
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