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Time to glean profits from grains

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7 år sedan

den

12 juni, 2018

Time to glean profits from grains, by Aneeka Gupta, Associate Director of Research The 2018 price gains staged by wheat, corn and soybeans of 18%, 14% and 6% respectively (as of 18 May 2018), display a turnaround in the grains market that has, in the recent past, been plagued by weak prices due to rising inventories. In its first outlook for the 2018/19 (September/August) cycle, released on 10 May 2018, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) was optimistic in its outlook for the grains market and this positive tone has recently been resonated in the futures market, with speculative positioning rising to its highest level since August 2017, according to commodity and futures trading commission data. Here’s a closer look at key agricultural commodity projections and the implications for investors.

Figure 1: Net positioning across grains turns positive

Source: USDA, Bloomberg, ETF Securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You cannot invest directly in an Index.

Corn deficit

In the case of corn, USDA estimated a further deficit of 35.8 million tons on the global market in 2018/19. If realised, this would be the lowest level of corn ending stocks since the 2012/13 season, as demand is expected to outpace the expected production increase. With oil prices surging higher, more corn is being used for fuel production than traditional feed purposes in 2018, due to the price incentives offered by cheaper corn-based ethanol.

Lower projected yields and harvested acreage are expected to be a drag on the US crop, resulting in an estimated decline of nearly 600 million bushels from the previous harvest. However, combined corn exports from Ukraine and Russia in 2018/19 worth 265 million bushels are likely to increase competition for the US. The reduction in corn cultivation in China, after it already cut back its stocks in 2016/17 and 2017/18, is likely to contribute to a more pronounced decrease in global corn stocks.

Based on USDA’s projections, the decline in world corn ending stocks puts the world stocks-to-usage ratio at 14.5%, compared to 21.8% last year. This would mark the second-tightest world stocks-to-usage ratio for corn since the 1973/74 season, rendering the new corn crop vulnerable to adverse weather conditions. Corn prices are trading at historically low levels relative to the stocks-to-usage ratio and given that corn prices are known to exhibit the most pronounced negative correlation (0.55) to the stocks-to-usage ratio among all grains, we expect to see a significant catch up in corn prices, similar to that witnessed in 2010. However, as corn enters the prime growing season of June to September, it remains exposed to significant price pressure.

The latest USDA crop progress report showed this spring’s corn planting pace improving to 62%, close to the five-year average of 63%. Corn emergence also advanced to 28% as of mid-May, in line with the five-year average of 27%.

Figure 2: Corn prices lag tightening stocks-to-usage ratio

Source: USDA, Bloomberg, ETFSecurities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You cannot invest directly in an Index.

Soybean plantings to exceed corn plantings

Low agricultural commodity prices are resulting in a paradigm shift in the US towards increased production of soybeans in lieu of resource-intensive corn and wheat. USDA expects soybean plantings to exceed corn plantings in 2018 by the greatest level ever. Despite USDA projecting global soybean production to rise on the back of a recovery from the drought in Argentina, higher soybean crush and exports are expected to offset most of the rise, with global soybean ending stock estimates declining by 5.5 million tons.

After the announcement of punitive tariffs on US soybean imports by China, China’s 2018/19 soybean imports are projected to decline for the first time in 15 years. At the same time, China’s soybean acreage is set to be expanded by around 9%, according to sources from the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture. While this will contribute to production, China will only be producing approximately 12% of the amount of soybeans it consumes. Considering China’s rising soybean demand, we do not expect the current developments to interfere with the country’s import requirements and expect to see a resolution to the ongoing trade disputes.

Figure 3: Soybeans ending stocks

Source: USDA, Bloomberg, ETF Securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You cannot invest directly in an Index.

Tough conditions for winter wheat

Wheat remained the weak link in USDA’s latest report. Since the start of 2018, a large part of wheat’s upward price momentum can be attributed to reports of tough conditions for winter wheat crop in Kansas, the most important US growing state, and other key regions. As it stands, 50% of Kansas winter wheat, 68% of Oklahoma winter wheat and 60% of Texas winter wheat is in poor or very poor condition. Planting progress shows winter wheat was 36% headed, falling behind the five-year average pace of 41%. However, USDA surprised investors by projecting a 5% increase in US wheat production due to a strong rise in spring wheat, despite poor winter wheat conditions.

Despite the 15% decline projected for Russian wheat crop, global wheat stocks are expected to be only 2% short of the 2017/18 all-time high. However, world ending stocks for 2018/19 are estimated to be lower at 955 million bushels, a positive development, which if realised would mark a four-year low.

How to gain exposure to agricultural commodities

Due to the strong performance of the grains market in 2018, the Continuous Commodity Futures Price Index (CCI Index), which has a high allocation to grains and agricultural commodities (47%), has risen 3.27% (as of 18 May 2018).

The distinctive feature of the CCI Index is its lower volatility, relative to other commodity indices, due to its lower weighting to the volatile energy sector. Additionally, index positions gravitate towards the near six months of the forward curve, thereby reducing volatility and mitigating negative roll yield. Unlike the major commodity indices, the CCI Index rebalances daily to keep weightings constant.

Figure 4: Cumulative contribution to spot return – year to date

Source: USDA, Bloomberg, ETF Securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You cannot invest directly in an Index.

Positive contributors to the spot return this year have been energy, grains and cocoa, as per the chart. For investors looking to gain exposure to grains and agricultural commodities, the CCI Index offers diversified exposure to commodities while maintaining a tilt to grain and agricultural commodities.

Aneeka Gupta, Equity & Commodities Strategist at ETF Securities

Aneeka Gupta is an Equity & Commodities Strategist at ETF Securities. Aneeka has 10 years of experience working as a Research Analyst across a wide range of asset classes. In her current role she is responsible for conducting analysis for all in-house commodity and macro publications and assisting the sales team with client queries around products and markets. Prior to ETF Securities, Aneeka worked as an Equity Sales Trader at Sunrise Brokers across US and Pan European Exchanges. Before that she worked as an Equity Derivatives Sales Manager at Mashreq Bank in Dubai.

Aneeka holds a Bsc in Mathematics from the University of Delhi and a Masters in Mathematics from Oxford University and is also a CFA Charterholder.

Disclaimer

This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Liknande ämnen:Aneeka Gupta ETF Securities WisdomTree

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Spotlight on the tariff war

Publicerad

12 timmar sedan

den

5 april, 2025

Redaktionen

The impact of US tariffs continues to dominate market sentiment and risk assets, including crypto, struggled with this uncertainty throughout the month. The Nasdaq Crypto Index™ (NCI™) fell 4.46% in March as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 dropped 5.63% and 7.61%, respectively.

Despite the macro uncertainty from Washington, US policymakers are continuing to embrace crypto in an unprecedented way, including launching a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, Digital Asset Stockpile, and engaging in expansive work at the regulatory agencies and in Congress.

Our team spent the last week of the month in Washington, meeting with regulators to share our experiences and views on what’s most important for crypto investors in the US. In his latest Notes from the CIO, Samir Kerbage shares what he learned from these meetings and how investors should be thinking about the new regulatory regime in the US.

As always, we are greatly appreciative of your trust in us and are here to answer any questions you may have.

-Your Partners at Hashdex

Market Review

March was marked by the tariff dispute triggered by the Trump administration. Back-and-forth fiscal policies, threats, and retaliations dominated the month’s agenda. The uncertain macroeconomic environment put investors into a defensive stance and negatively impacted crypto assets. The Nasdaq Crypto Index™ (NCI™) closed the month down -4.46% after a period of high volatility. Major market indices, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, also recorded steep declines of -5.63% and -7.61%, respectively. These concurrent drawdowns across equities and crypto underscored March’s broad market caution, as trade war uncertainty prompted investors to flee risk assets.

During times of uncertainty, it is common to observe increased correlation among different classes of risk assets. This pattern played out in March: the 6-month rolling correlation of monthly returns between the NCI™ and the Nasdaq-100 surged to roughly 0.91 (see chart below), its highest level since 2021, indicating that crypto assets were moving almost in lockstep with tech stocks. This spike in correlation confirms that crypto was behaving like a high-beta extension of the tech sector—an amplified version of the Nasdaq-100. The lack of clarity in the global landscape leads investors to reduce their risk exposure and seek protection, a movement known in financial markets as “risk-off” allocation.

6-Month Rolling Correlation of Monthly Returns between the Nasdaq Crypto Index and Nasdaq-100 (Apr 2021–Apr 2025).

The chart illustrates how this correlation has been increasing since the American elections in November 2024 and spiked to approximately 0.91 in the most recent period—a multi-year high. This visual evidence reinforces the view that crypto assets have been moving closely in tandem with tech stocks, effectively acting as a high-beta version of the Nasdaq-100 during the March risk-off phase.

Following this trend, risk reduction was evident within the crypto asset class. Among the NCI’s constituents, Bitcoin (BTC) posted a decline of -1.93%, withstanding the downturn far better than other constituents such as Ether (ETH, -17.4%) and Litecoin (LTC, -34.6%). BTC’s relatively mild drop in this sell-off aligns with the idea that it increasingly trades like a high-beta proxy for large-cap tech. It still declined, but less severely, whereas smaller-cap crypto assets behaved more like speculative growth stocks and suffered outsized losses. The only exception to the negative results was Cardano (ADA), which surprised with a positive return of 3.88% despite no significant protocol developments during the month.

Thematic indices also faced a challenging environment. As highlighted in previous letters, smaller capitalization assets tend to suffer more during periods of market stress, mirroring how speculative small-cap stocks are hit hardest in equity sell-offs. The biggest negative highlight was the Digital Culture Index, which dropped -17.45%, followed by the Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and Smart Contract Platform (Web3) indices, which fell -16.73% and -12.07%, respectively. The Vinter Hashdex Risk Parity Momentum Index recorded a negative result of -8.26% but outperformed the three other thematic indices, benefiting from its high allocation in BTC and TRX (which gained 4.68%). The heavy weighting in BTC – the more resilient large-cap crypto – helped cushion this index, underscoring the relevance of the momentum factor in a well-diversified strategy during times of market stress.

The market remains on the lookout for the outcome of the fiscal policy discussions, hoping for a reduction in uncertainties and an end to the tariff war. That would likely mark the moment when investors regain their appetite for risk assets, including crypto assets. The U.S. government has also signaled interest in advancing the crypto agenda, a development that could drive the asset class to a new level of adoption. We remain confident in our positive outlook for the rest of the year and the long term.

US creates Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and Digital Asset Stockpile

The Bitcoin Reserve will be capitalized with BTC owned by the Department of Treasury, which could further increase via new budget-neutral acquisitions. The stockpile will also include assets owned by the Treasury. This marks a major milestone, with the US government starting to integrate major crypto assets and continues the new administration’s work to lead the global crypto economy.

Stablecoins surpass $230 billion in market value

The total stablecoins market capitalization surpassed $230 billion amid institutional demand for dollar-backed digital assets. This showcases one of the most successful applications for crypto technology enhancing traditional financial payments. It could also pave the way for new use cases that require a strong and reliable global payment system.

FDIC eases banks’ ability to engage in crypto activities

The FDIC has rescinded previous guidelines which prevented financial institutions from engaging with crypto activities without prior sign-off. By removing bureaucratic hurdles, banks may more readily over crypto-related services, potentially leading to broader adoption and integration of digital assets into the financial system.

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BSE8 ETF ger exponering mot företagsobligationer med förfall under 2028

Publicerad

13 timmar sedan

den

5 april, 2025

Redaktionen

Invesco BulletShares 2028 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc (BSE8 ETF) med ISIN IE00079EUF59, försöker följa Bloomberg 2028 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened-index. Bloomberg 2028 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index följer företagsobligationer denominerade i EUR. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2028) i indexet. Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade. Löptid: december 2028 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,10 % p.a. Invesco BulletShares 2028 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc är den billigaste och största ETF som följer Bloomberg 2028 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Ränteintäkterna (kupongerna) i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

Invesco BulletShares 2028 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 6 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 18 juni 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Produktbeskrivning

Invesco BulletShares 2028 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF Acc syftar till att tillhandahålla den totala avkastningen för Bloomberg 2028 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index (”Referensindexet”), minus avgifternas inverkan. Fonden har en fast löptid och kommer att upphöra på Förfallodagen.

Referensindexet är utformat för att återspegla resultatet för EUR-denominerade, investeringsklassade, fast ränta, skattepliktiga skuldebrev emitterade av företagsemittenter. För att vara kvalificerade för inkludering måste företagsvärdepapper ha minst 300 miljoner euro i nominellt utestående belopp och en effektiv löptid på eller mellan 1 januari 2028 och 31 december 2028.

Värdepapper är uteslutna om emittenter: 1) är inblandade i kontroversiella vapen, handeldvapen, militära kontrakt, oljesand, termiskt kol eller tobak; 2) inte har en kontroversnivå enligt definitionen av Sustainalytics eller har en Sustainalytics-kontroversnivå högre än 4; 3) anses inte följa principerna i FN:s Global Compact; eller 4) kommer från tillväxtmarknader.

Portföljförvaltarna strävar efter att uppnå fondens mål genom att tillämpa en urvalsstrategi, som inkluderar användning av kvantitativ analys, för att välja en andel av värdepapperen från referensindexet som representerar hela indexets egenskaper, med hjälp av faktorer som index- vägd genomsnittlig varaktighet, industrisektorer, landvikter och kreditkvalitet. När en företagsobligation som innehas av fonden når förfallodag kommer kontanterna som fonden tar emot att användas för att investera i kortfristiga EUR-denominerade skulder.

ETFen förvaltas passivt.

En investering i denna fond är ett förvärv av andelar i en passivt förvaltad indexföljande fond snarare än i de underliggande tillgångarna som ägs av fonden.

”Förfallodag”: den andra onsdagen i december 2026 eller sådant annat datum som bestäms av styrelseledamöterna och meddelas aktieägarna.

Handla BSE8 ETF

Invesco BulletShares 2028 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc (BSE8 ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

Börs	Valuta	Kortnamn
XETRA	EUR	BSE8

Största innehav

Namn	CUSIP	ISIN	Kupongränta	Vikt %
Volkswagen Leasing GmbH 3.875% 11/10/28	D9T70CNQ3	XS2745725155	3,875	2,19%
Swedbank AB 4.25% 11/07/28	W94240FJ7	XS2572496623	4,250	1,63%
ABN AMRO Bank NV 4.375% 20/10/28	N0R37XLP3	XS2613658710	4,375	1,62%
Carlsberg Breweries AS 4% 05/10/28	K3662HDY6	XS2696046460	4,000	1,60%
RCI Banque SA 4.875% 14/06/28	F7S48DSE5	FR001400IEQ0	4,875	1,59%
Booking Holdings Inc 3.625% 12/11/28	—	XS2621007231	3,625	1,59%
Banco Santander SA 3.875% 16/01/28	E2R99DB46	XS2575952697	3,875	1,58%
Nordea Bank Abp 4.125% 05/05/28	X5S8VP8C3	XS2618906585	4,125	1,58%
E.ON SE 3.5% 12/01/28	D2T8J8CT1	XS2574873266	3,500	1,57%
General Motors Financial Co Inc 3.9% 12/01/28	U37047BA1	XS2747270630	3,900	1,57%

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En vecka för historieböckerna…

Publicerad

14 timmar sedan

den

5 april, 2025

Redaktionen

Det senaste vecan var den värsta veckan för världens aktiemarknader sedan covid-lockdown-kollapsen i mars 2020. Det var dessutom den värsta vecka för amerikanska aktier sedan covid-lockdown-kollapsen i mars 2020.

Det senaste veckan var den värsta veckan för världens aktiemarknader sedan covid-lockdown-kollapsen i mars 2020. Det var dessutom den värsta vecka för amerikanska aktier sedan covid-lockdown-kollapsen i mars 2020.

Det amerikanska referensindexet NASDAQ gick tillsammans med i Russell 2000, ett amerikanskt aktiemarknadsindex för småbolag i björnmarknadens territorium när dessa båda index fallit med över 20 procent från sina toppnoteringar. Samtidigt föll amerikanska Dow Jones med 2 200 punkter under fredagen.

Den grupp av företag som kallas för Mag 7 och har drivit börsuppgången på den amerikanska aktiemarknaden, tappade 1,4 biljoner dollar i börsvärde under veckan – det mest någonsin.

Fredagen den 4 april såh den högsta volymsessionen i historien på den amerikanska aktiemarknaden mätt som det totala antalet omsatta aktier på alla börser.

Det amerikanska VIX-indexet, känt som ”fear and greed-indexet” såg sin största veckorörelse sedan februari 2020. Det var också den värsta veckan för USAskreditmarknader sedan covid-lockdown-krisen, till och med värre än under SVB-bankkrisen.

Oljepriset kraschade med 11 procent under veckan, det största fallet sedan mars 2023 (SVB-kris / tillväxtskräck). Samtidigt rapporterade guldpriset den andra nedgångsvecka i år. Fredagen kursfall var den värsta dagen sedan november 2024. Priset på koppar såg sitt största fall sedan Lehman-kraschen i oktober 2008. Kryptovalutan Bitcoin rapporterade små vinster under veckan.

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