ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Tighter supply and low prices bode well for platinum
Highlights
- Metals with industrial applications attracted more than US$100mn inflows. Platinum stands out as a contrarian bet as prices rebound from 10-month low on signs of deepening supply deficit.
- Investors continue to favour Euro despite elevated uncertainty ahead of key central bank meetings.
- Weakness in oil prices triggered inflows into long oil ETPs after five weeks of outflows. We believe oil price will continue to trade range between US$40-55/bbl.
Silver inflows overwhelm gold as the metal records largest weekly inflows since March. Gold will likely remain under pressure ahead of the US Fed, Bank of England (BoE), Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meetings this week and the US election next week. Gold rose modestly, while US dollar slipped in the wake of Trump closing in on Clinton in polls amid the fall-out from FBI emails. Silver and metals with industrial applications in general took the lead last week as China looks set to meet its growth target of 6.7% this year. US$54mn went into long silver ETPs, US$39mn into long platinum ETPs, US$4.6mn into long copper ETPs and US$8.1mn into broad baskets of industrial metal ETPs.
Platinum could gain momentum trade as supply continues to tighten. Platinum price fell 18% since its August peak to a 10-month low the previous Friday. The threat of a massive strike in South African mines like in 2014 and the potential for the industry to be in deficit this year for the fifth consecutive year have surprisingly failed to support prices. We believe the plunge in net speculative long positions since early August explains most of the counterintuitive price weakness. ETP Investors have however increased their long positions in platinum ETPs highlighting that this level is an interesting entry point for bargain hunters betting on further supply tighteness in the coming year. Platinum ETPs recorded inflows last week for the fifth consecutive week totalling US$113mn.
First significant inflows in oil ETPs after five weeks of outflows. Oil prices rose 2% since the last OPEC meeting in September when members reached an agreement to limit oil output. While prices rallied following the news, we said that capping OPEC production at 33 million barrels alone will do little on its own to reduce the surplus and indeed oil prices fell 4% last week on rising US oil production and increasing sceptisim about OPEC’s ability to finalise the agreement. Investors appear split on oil’s next move. Last week bargain-hunters bought US$22mn of long oil ETPs, while US$7mn inflows into short oil ETPs highlight some investors scepticism.
Investors continue to increase positions in long Euro ETPs. Last week saw nearly US$25mn into long Euro ETPs. Around US$11mn were against GBP, US$8mn against USD and US$5mn against JPY. Short Euro ETPs also saw redemptions indicating investors view the euro area to be in decent shape ahead of the GDP and CPI releases this week.
Central banks on stage this week. The Fed, BoE, BoJ and RBA are all due to meet to decide on the future path for monetary policy this week. This could set the tone for a volatile week across all asset classes. A number of key economic data are also due to be released: EU GDP for Q3 and inflation data for October, US ISM manufacturing and China manufacturing PMI for October.
Video Presentation
Edith Southammakosane, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
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ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
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