ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – The Trump reflation trade prompts outflows in gold and emerging market debt
Highlights
- Gold ETPs saw outflows of US$83m, the largest in a week in 2016.
- In reaction to the Trump reflation trade we saw the first significant outflows of the year from Emerging Market Debt ETPs totalling US$55m.
- Oil ETPs saw further inflows last week totalling US$49m, bringing the total inflow in the last four weeks to almost US$258 as investors punt on a deal being brokered at the OPEC meeting.
Gold ETPs saw outflows of US$83m, the largest in a week in 2016. We saw similar behaviour earlier this year when investors were expecting an imminent rate hike in the upcoming FED meetings. This time round though its the highest probability all year, with a 94% chance of a rate hike according to the futures market. This year gold flows have been predominantly inflows with only 28% of daily flows being remittances. Furthermore, whilst gold short ETPs inflows increase in-line with inflows from the period from 2007 to 2012, this year we have only seen net inflows US$87k suggesting that despite gold’s recent weakness, investors want to maintain their existing holdings, the prospects of rising inflation and political instability are likely reasons. We are also seeing a significant divergence in regional flows, flows from investors who are based in the US, and therefore USD based, have pulled out of gold at a much greater rate than their Europe based counterparts. This is likely due to the recent strength of the USD giving non-USD currency investors in gold a lift from the currency despite weakness in the underlying.
In reaction to the Trump reflation trade we saw the first significant outflows of the year from Emerging Market Debt ETPs totalling US$55m. The yield differential between EM local debt and the European yields is at a multi-year high (over 5%). We maintain our view that EM countries have a stronger credit standing than what is commonly perceived, leaving room for further upside to price. In our opinion, any technical selloff represents a good opportunity to enter EM debt. Oil
ETPs saw further inflows last week totalling US$49m, bringing the total inflow in the last four weeks to almost US$258m as investors punt of a deal being brokered at the OPEC meeting on the 30th November. We believe OPEC’s ability to broker a supply cut is fading. A flurry of meetings between both OPEC and non- OPEC countries have taken place, but have so far produced little positive results. Growing scepticism about OPEC’s ability to cut production has led to short positions rising 56% in WTI and 39% in the past month. OPEC’s commitment is contingent on the participation of non-OPEC countries, but with large non-OPEC members like Russia, Kazakhstan and Brazil seeing new production come online as a result of past capital expenditure from several years ago, the likelihood of a concrete commitment is looking slim. We expect to see oil prices remain volatile in the run-up to OPEC’s November 30th meeting.
What to watch this week. With the market pricing the December rate hike odds to a near certainty, investors won’t be paying as much attention to the minutes of the Fed’s meeting on Wednesday. While the release of the Autumn statement on fiscal and economic policy in the UK on Wednesday will take centre stage.
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ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
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