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The Fed minutes boost gold

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The Fed minutes boost gold Gold ETPs registered strong inflows after the release of the Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes of the March meeting on Wednesday suggested the chances of a rate hike in the short term were extremely limited.

Weekly Flows Analysis – The Fed minutes boost gold

Gold ETPs registered strong inflows after the release of the Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes of the March meeting on Wednesday suggested the chances of a rate hike in the short term were extremely limited.
The larger than expected draw on US crude oil inventory helped maintain flows into oil ETPs steady.
Inflows into broad commodity basket have risen to their highest level since December last year.

Inflows into broad baskets indicate a stronger interest from investors led by gold rebound and energy. Inflows into commodity baskets rose by their highest level since early December 2015 (US $27.3mn).

Precious metals benefited from the increased risk aversion following the release of the Fed’s minutes. Gold ETPs attracted larger inflows last week, US $118.6mn from US$96.8 the week before, as investors scaled back expectations for further rates hikes in the US. The minutes of the Fed’s March FOMC meeting released Wednesday showed officials seeing persistent external risks and the threats they posed to the US economy. As a result, the odds of a rate hike in December have dropped to 48 percent from 58 percent earlier last week, based on Fed-fund futures data. Market participants now expect policy makers’ next move in February 2017. The increase of risk aversion and the subsequent decline of the US dollar versus Japanese Yen and Euro, led to the gold rally last week. Silver ETP inflows also increased last weak reaching their 4 week high, marking seven consecutive weeks of increase.

Energy ETPs continue to attract strong inflows, led by Brent oil ETPs (US$17.6mn). Ahead of Doha meeting on April 17, oil prices advanced last week on speculation over whether an accord to freeze or cap output can be reached. Saudi Arabia said it will only agree to a freeze if other suppliers do so, while Kuwait said a deal can be done without Iran’s support. On the other hand, WTI crude oil ETPs received inflows worth US$15.3mn as US oil inventories were drawn down more than expected.

Copper ETPs attract US$10.8mn of inflows amid declining price. Inflows into copper reached US$10.8mn last week reflecting investors bargain hunting after copper has declined 4.4% last week to a six-week low of $4,630 per ton. In addition, aluminium ETPs inflows surged to their highest level in six months (US$12.7mn).

Key events to watch this week. Industrial production data in some of the world’s largest economies (US, Euro area and China) will give investors a gauge for how demand for commodities is faring. Additionally, markets participants will also be looking at retail sales and the Empire State survey of manufacturers in the US. Separately, inflation figures in the euro area, UK and US will also be of greatest interest for investors. The Bank of England will conduct its monetary policy meeting on Thursday. The decision is broadly expected by market participants to remain unchanged (i.e. total asset purchases of £375bn and base rate at 0.5%).

Video Presentation

Morgane Delledonne, Fixed Income Strategist at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

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EL4P ETF investerar i medellånga europeiska statsobligationer

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Deka iBoxx EUR Liquid Sovereign Diversified 7-10 UCITS ETF (EL4P ETF) investerar i statsobligationer med fokus på Europa. Obligationernas löptider är mellan 7-10 år. De underliggande obligationerna har Investment Grade-betyg. ETF:en har en valutaexponering i EUR. Ränteintäkterna (kuponger) i fonden delas ut till investerarna (kvartalsvis).

Deka iBoxx EUR Liquid Sovereign Diversified 7-10 UCITS ETF (EL4P ETF) investerar i statsobligationer med fokus på Europa. Obligationernas löptider är mellan 7-10 år. De underliggande obligationerna har Investment Grade-betyg. ETFen har en valutaexponering i EUR. Ränteintäkterna (kuponger) i fonden delas ut till investerarna (kvartalsvis).

Den totala kostnadskvoten uppgår till 0,15 % p.a. Fonden replikerar resultatet för det underliggande indexet genom att köpa alla indexbeståndsdelar (full replikering). Deka iBoxx EUR Liquid Sovereign Diversified 7-10 UCITS ETF är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 14 miljoner euro under förvaltning. ETFen är äldre än 5 år och har sin hemvist i Tyskland.

Mål

Fondens mål är att följa utvecklingen av iBoxx € Liquid Sovereign Diversified 7-10 Index (Prisindex). iBoxx EUR Liquid Sovereign Diversified-index är baserade uteslutande på obligationer som ingår i universum av iBoxx EUR-referensindex. För att säkerställa att endast lämpliga obligationer kommer in i de likvida indexen har ytterligare urvalskriterier lagts till: obligationstyp, tid till förfall och utestående belopp. Det maximala antalet obligationer i varje index är begränsat till 25 stycken.

Investeringsstrategi

Deka iBoxx EUR Liquid Sovereign Diversified 7-10 UCITS ETF strävar efter att spåra iBoxx® EUR Liquid Sovereigns Diversified 7-10-index. Indexet iBoxx® EUR Liquid Sovereigns Diversified 7-10 följer de 25 mest likvida euro-denominerade statsobligationerna utgivna av regeringar i euroområdet. Tid till mognad: 7-10 år. Maxvikt per land: 4 obligationer respektive 20 procent.

Handla EL4P ETF

Deka iBoxx EUR Liquid Sovereign Diversified 7-10 UCITS ETF (EL4P ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEUREL4P
Stuttgart Stock ExchangeEUREL4P
XETRAEUREL4P

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G20 summit in Rio: Lula enhances Brazil’s international reputation

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From 18 to 19 November 2024, Brazil will host the G20 summit in Rio for the first time as the focus of the world's most important platform for global economic cooperation.

From 18 to 19 November 2024, Brazil will host the G20 summit in Rio for the first time as the focus of the world’s most important platform for global economic cooperation.

The coalition, which includes the USA, China, India, the E U and, most recently, the African Union, represents the world’s most important economies, which, according to OECD figures, account for around 80 per cent of global gross domestic product, 75 per cent of world trade and two thirds of the world’s population.

Since Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) took up his third uninterrupted term of office at the beginning of 2023, he has spent a lot of time abroad to improve his country’s image in the world. His efforts could pay off. A recent Pew Research survey found that most Brazilian adults are optimistic about their country’s status as an international power.

In addition to the G20, Brazil is also set to host other high-profile events such as the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) and the BRICS summit (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) in 2025, while also seeking membership of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

In the almost three years since Brazil initiated its formal accession process for OECD membership, the country has achieved many milestones on the road to this goal. If successful, Brazil would be in a unique position to influence the increasing geopolitical and economic competition between industrialised and developing countries, as it is the only country to be represented in the BRICS, the G20 and the OECD simultaneously.

As the eighth largest economy in the world and the largest economy in Latin America, Brazil could be a strong link in the global discourse on key issues for the Global South (according to UN Trade and Development, the Global South essentially comprises Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia excluding Israel, Japan and South Korea, and Oceania excluding Australia and New Zealand).

These issues include, above all, the fight against hunger, poverty and inequality, sustainable development and the reform of global governance. If Brazil is able to achieve political and financial commitments to progress on priorities such as digital infrastructure, this could lead not only to an increase in Brazil’s GDP, but also to a narrowing of the economic and urban-rural divide and a reduction in gender inequality. Consider that the introduction of a relatively new instant money transfer platform operated by the central bank, known as Pix, has already promoted financial inclusion and increased access to banking services from around 70 per cent of the population to more than 84 per cent (source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace).

We expect that an OECD seal of approval for Brazil will also encourage global investors seeking the assurance of the Coalition’s high standards for the ease of doing business. A seat at the table would give Brazil a stronger voice in shaping best practices and global frameworks for rapidly evolving technology standards. Brazilian companies specialising in artificial intelligence and financial technology are already among the largest in South America.

As the largest oil producer in Latin America, resource-rich Brazil is a leader in the energy sector, as it is one of the ten largest oil producers in the world (according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Brazil produced 4 per cent of the world’s total oil production at the end of 2023). However, the country’s largest sector is finance, with a weighting of more than 36 per cent according to the MSCI Brazil Index.

Central bank in interest rate hike mode

High government spending continues to be a major problem. In our opinion, any reduction in this spending would give the country’s capital markets cause for optimism. Meanwhile, Brazil is an exception to the global trend of falling interest rates: In September, Brazil’s central bank raised interest rates to curb inflationary pressures. The market expects the Brazilian real to remain stable or appreciate slightly in the near future, partly due to falling US interest rates. We see this as a potential advantage for foreign investors in Brazil.

It is also encouraging to see that progress is being made on Brazil’s long-awaited VAT reform, which could further boost the private sector as efficiency gains from a simpler tax system would favour investment.

Growth in Brazil’s manufacturing and services sectors accelerated in September as output in both sectors increased, indicating strong growth in economic activity. In addition, the Brazilian market is currently trading at valuations that we consider favourable. Improved conditions in Brazil’s manufacturing sector have been driven by a resurgence in production, stronger job creation and a pick-up in sales growth, according to S&P Global. At the end of September, Brazil’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index was surpassed only by India, rising to 53.2 (from 50.4 in August; readings above 50 indicate expansion).

Chart 1: Brazilian Purchasing Managers’ Index

Source: FactSet, Markit Economics

Expectations are also high that Brazil will experience an economic boost in 2027, having won the historic bid to host the FIFA Women’s World Cup – a first not only for Brazil, but for the whole of South America.

Over the near term, we believe investors should stay attuned to the opportunities in Brazil and may find what we consider an attractive entry point into this large and diverse market.

Chart 2: The valuations of Latin American equities look favourable

Attractive valuations compared to industrialised countries, emerging markets and own history

Chart 3: Latin American equities offer high dividends

High dividend yield compared to industrialised countries, emerging markets and own history

From Dina Ting, Head of Global Index Portfolio Management at Franklin Templeton

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BlackRock introducerar ny ETF för att anpassa exponeringen mot amerikanska storbolag

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Den nya ETFen, iShares S&P 500 Top 20 UCITS ETF, ger en utökad granulär tillgång till amerikanska företag. De senaste årens ökande framträdande av megabolagsaktier understryker möjligheten för europeiska investerare att förbättra sättet att fånga tillväxten hos några av världens mest välkända företag. Idag tillkännagav BlackRock lanseringen av en ny ETF för att ge europeiska investerare en enkel lösning för att uttrycka mer detaljerade åsikter om de största företagen som är noterade i USA.

Den nya ETFen, iShares S&P 500 Top 20 UCITS ETF, ger en utökad granulär tillgång till amerikanska företag. De senaste årens ökande framträdande av megabolagsaktier understryker möjligheten för europeiska investerare att förbättra sättet att fånga tillväxten hos några av världens mest välkända företag. Idag tillkännagav BlackRock lanseringen av en ny ETF för att ge europeiska investerare en enkel lösning för att uttrycka mer detaljerade åsikter om de största företagen som är noterade i USA.

Den amerikanska kapitalmarknaden har genomgått en betydande omvandling under de senaste två decennierna, men det finns begränsade nya lösningar för att hjälpa investerare att bättre hantera sin marknadsvärdesexponering. År 2000 värderades hela den amerikanska aktiemarknaden till 15 biljoner dollar. Snabbspola fram till idag är de största åtta företagen bara värda 15 biljoner dollar. Ännu viktigare är att de 20 största företagen i S&P 500-indexet har bidragit med mer än två tredjedelar (68 %) av indexets avkastning under de senaste tre åren, vilket visar deras förmåga att driva överdimensionerad avkastning på aktiemarknaden.

Brett Pybus, chef för iShares EMEA Product Strategy sa: ”Nu är det dags för investerare att ompröva sin marknadsexponering. Med denna ETF kan europeiska investerare nu utnyttja kraften i tillväxt och innovation inom de största amerikanska företagen på ett riktat sätt. Prestationsspridningen inom S&P 500 har skapat ett behov av exakt exponering mot amerikanska aktier.”

Möjligheten att enkelt få tillgång till eller anpassa exponeringen för amerikanska börsvärden i en ETF är relevant för olika typer av investerare – inklusive förstagångsinvesterare, portföljbyggare, institutionella investerare och finansiella rådgivare.

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iShares S&P 500 Top 20 UCITS ETF  SP200.20%De 20 största amerikanska företag inom sektorer som teknik, konsumentvaror, kommunikation, hälsovård och finansiella tjänstesektorer

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