Your top-down guide to the most important macro themes for Bitcoin & Cryptoassets July 2024
Key Takeaways
• Performance: June saw significant negative impacts on Bitcoin and cryptoassets due to declining ETP flows, miner distributions, and increased selling pressure from BTC whales and government liquidations. Despite these challenges, Bitcoin’s price corrections have made it more attractive and closer to fair value, with expectations of future price appreciation due to increasing supply scarcity. Major cryptoassets like Bitcoin and Ethereum were less affected than altcoins, but recent trends suggest a potential reversal in risk appetite and increasing performance dispersion among altcoins.
• Macro: US recession risks have recently increased with disappointing macro data from the US which have put pressure on Bitcoin and cryptoassets. Bitcoin’s performance continues to be dominated by changes in global growth expectations. Systemic risks to watch include a revival of US regional bank stress, French sovereign risks, and US Treasury illiquidity.
• On-Chain: June was characterized by selling activity from different entities including miners, whales/government entities and also ETP investors from mid-June onwards. Barring any renewed increase in global risk appetite, our base case still remains a short-term consolidation until the positive effect from the Halving starts to kick in around August 2024. That being said, valuations have become more attractive due to the recent correction and are now close to “fair value”.
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We would like to share with you our July The Bitcoin Macro Investor report which can be accessed on our website by clicking the link below:
