The automation Opportunity a 2018 Outlook. In the run-up to Christmas, the convenience offered by Amazon Prime is something that many of us take for granted. As Amazon’s competitors struggle to catch up, the Prime service is putting tremendous pressure on supply chains around the world. The growth of the Prime service has been greatly facilitated by the higher intensity afforded by Amazon’s warehouse robots. It provides just one example of how robotics, automation and artificial intelligence are fast transforming our world.
Amazon’s 2012 acquisition of Kiva Systems – now Amazon Robotics – was a turning point for the automation industry. Kiva’s robots greatly improved flexibility and productivity at Amazon’s warehouses, allowing the company to offer faster service and making its Prime offering viable and sustainable.
Now that Amazon has taken Kiva in house, other companies are striving to accelerate the automation of supply chains elsewhere. So, as 2018 unfolds, we should see increased application of automation around the globe. Jeremie Capron, Managing Partner and Director of Research at Robo Global, says “with only around 5% of warehouses currently automated, there is vast scope for growth here”. Logistics is just one of the many fields undergoing a robotics revolution. Manufacturing is set to be transformed by technologies such as autonomous manipulation and machine vision. The former uses robots to recognise and select specific components, while the latter performs quality inspection in place of human eyes, through a combination of cameras and advanced algorithms.
We are also seeing the widespread deployment of collaborative robots – autonomous machines that can work alongside human operators, rather than having to be ‘caged’ for safety reasons. This allows machines to do the more onerous or repetitive tasks, while human workers can concentrate on adding value in more sophisticated ways.
‘Cobots’ are becoming cheaper, smaller and easier to program, and the sector is now growing at an annualised rate of over 50%.1
These automated tools aren’t perfect. But they are constantly improving through the use of artificial intelligence: specifically, machine learning. “When automated systems make a mistake,” says autonomous-systems pioneer Raffaello D’Andrea, PhD, “learningenabled algorithms allow them to avoid making it again. In mundane tasks, this gives them a real advantage over human workers, who can make the same errors repeatedly because of distraction or fatigue.
And, crucially, machine learning allows solutions to be disseminated quickly across machines worldwide.”
But it’s not only in the repetitive processes of logistics and manufacturing that robots are making an impact. They’re taking on much more complex tasks too. Autonomous vehicles are already with us – and will be making their presence felt in the year ahead. “Before 2018 is out,” according to Jeremie Capron, “we’re likely to see the first autonomous taxi. As with so much automation, this will start small – probably in a single town or city – before broadening out as mistakes are corrected and customer experiences are improved.”
Healthcare will be another growth area in 2018. Robotic surgery systems have been around for some time, but their use is accelerating.
Intuitive Surgical’s da Vinci robots performed some 750,000 abdominal procedures in 2016;2 in 2017, the growth rate has been in the mid to high teens.3 And robots are now being used for other procedures too, including spinal surgery. The use of 3D systems to model the spine leads to greater precision and better patient outcomes. Israel’s Mazor Robotics has reported increased sales of its spinal systems this year,4 but with potential for huge improvements in surgical safety, there is much more to come here.
For investors looking to harness these powerful trends, there are several important considerations. First, penetration of the existing markets in manufacturing, logistics and healthcare is still very low.
So the automation megatrend is very much in its infancy. Investors therefore have an opportunity to ‘get in early’. They should also be aware, however, that growth may be volatile and is not guaranteed.
The disrupters may themselves be disrupted.
Second, the implications of a given technology can be hard to predict. The benefits of Kiva’s robots were initially thought to lie in enhanced cost efficiency. But warehouse operators saw the main advantages in the flexibility they offered and in the elimination of human inefficiency. Similarly, the use of a given technology can skip from one application to another, and from one industry to the next. The initial application of an autonomous system can be seen as a testing ground, in which a technology is refined and enhanced – before it finds other applications elsewhere. Jeremie Capron notes that these developments are inherently unpredictable, because artificial intelligence and robotics are systems-led phenomena: “new capabilities are developed, and applications of those capabilities follow”.
Third, because it’s hard to predict where the next breakthrough will come, it’s important for investors to have exposure across the theme. Not only does this position portfolios for the unexpected breakouts, but it also ensures that they are not overexposed to the biggest names in the business. Some of the best-known industrial robotics companies – the likes of Fanuc, ABB and Rockwell – are highly cyclical. “This cyclicality can be terrifying for investors,” says Richard Lightbound, Managing Director and CEO EMEA of ROBO Global. “So spreading investments across a broad range of companies should result in a much smoother ride than simply buying the flagship industrial firms. And, as we come to the end of an extraordinary year for technology stocks, this diversification also avoids overexposure to companies such as Nvidia that are now trading on elevated valuations.”
Above all, it is worth noting that this revolution is only at the beginning and could continue to see growth. Kiva started selling its systems only in 2005. Few could have foreseen that it would be playing such a large part in the expansion of e-commerce today.
The growth pattern typical in robotics, automation and artificial intelligence means that companies can rise from a barely noticeable start to global prominence in a short period of time. This implies that there is considerable growth to be captured in emergent technologies.
By Christmas 2018, this exciting megatrend will be much further advanced – doubtless having taken some surprising turns along the way. But for far-sighted investors, there’s no time like the present.
For more information, visit: etfsecurities.com/futurepresent
1 ReportsnReports, Collaborative Reports Market by Payload Capacity, September 2017 2 Intuitive Surgical, Annual Report 2016 3 Reuters, Intuitive Surgical raises 2017 procedure growth forecast, April 2017 4 The Motley Fool, This Growing Robotics Company Is a Hit With Surgeons, Nov 2017
Important Information
This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”). While this communication is made by ETFS UK, certain content has been produced and provided for ETFS UK by ROBO Global Partners Ltd. (“ROBO Global®”). ROBO Global® is an independent, unaffiliated third party to ETFS UK.
En ny krypto-ETN utgivet av 21Shares har varit möjlig att handla på Xetra och Börse Frankfurt sedan i onsdags.
21Shares Bitcoin Ethereum Core ETP erbjuder investerare enkel och effektiv tillgång till prestanda för en kryptokorg bestående av de två kryptovalutorna Bitcoin (BTC) och Ethereum (ETH). Viktningen av de två kryptotillgångarna baseras på deras nuvarande börsvärde och justeras månadsvis. Denna krypto-ETN är 100 procent säkrad av de underliggande tillgångarna BTC och ETH.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETP genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.
Produktutbudet inom Deutsche Börses ETF & ETP-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 378 ETFer, 198 ETCer och 254 ETNer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på mer än €19 miljarder är Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer och ETPer i Europa.
WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend GrowthUCITSETF EUR Hedged Acc (WGRU ETF) med ISIN IE0007M3MLF3, försöker spåra WisdomTree Global Developed Quality Dividend Growth (EUR Hedged)-index. WisdomTree Global Developed Quality Dividend Growth (EUR Hedged)-index spårar utdelningsbetalande aktier på utvecklade marknader med tillväxtegenskaper. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning). Indexet är ett fundamentalt viktat index. Valutasäkrad till euro (EUR).
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,43 % p.a. WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend GrowthUCITSETF EUR Hedged Acc är den enda ETF som följer WisdomTree Global Developed Quality Dividend Growth (EUR Hedged) index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.
WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend GrowthUCITSETF EUR Hedged Acc är en mycket liten ETF med 4 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 20 mars 2023 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Fonden strävar efter att spåra pris- och avkastningsutvecklingen, före avgifter och utgifter, för WisdomTree Global Developed Quality Dividend Growth Index. Andelsklassen strävar efter att leverera exponering mot indexet samtidigt som den neutraliserar exponeringen mot fluktuationer i euron genom att implementera en valutasäkringsmetod. Läs mer om indexet som GGRE är designat för att spåra.
Varför investera?
Få tillgång till högkvalitativa, utdelningsväxande företag från globala utvecklade marknader som uppfyller WisdomTrees ESG-kriterier (environmental, social and governance)
Dra nytta av riskscreening för att utesluta företag baserat på egenutvecklade kvalitet och momentum
Direktavkastning och inkomstpotential kan vara högre än ett börsvärdesindex
Använd som ett komplement till globala högavkastande utdelningsstrategier eller som en ersättning för aktiva tillväxt- eller kvalitetsstrategier med stora bolag
Valutavolatiliteten minimeras genom användning av valutaterminskontrakt
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.
Donald Trump’s return to the White House has forced European leaders to reconsider their defence capabilities. Trump’s administration has stated that it expects European countries to take on a greater role in their own security, as well as giving overt signals that it has less interest in the future of the continent’s security. In a worst-case scenario, there are growing fears about the US’ continued commitment to the NATO alliance. This article will outline the scale of the task ahead for Europe to prepare for a world where it can potentially no longer rely on the US for its security.
Europe alone?
First, it is worth noting that the prospect of a US pullout of NATO remains unlikely. While members of Trump’s cabinet have endorsed a withdrawal, the president himself has not. Key members of Trump’s cabinet such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio appear to remain strong believers in the alliance. Crucially, in 2023, the US Congress passed a law requiring a two-thirds majority vote before any President can withdraw from the alliance. Given the current makeup of Congress, such a vote passing seems unlikely.
However, European leaders are taking the risk seriously. Even if the worst-case scenario of a total US withdrawal from NATO does not come to pass, the prospect can no longer be discounted. At the same time, even if the US continues as a member, there is a growing expectation of Europe to develop its own defence capabilities. There is, therefore, a renewed sense among European leaders that they must develop credible security deterrence in the absence of the US.
What is needed?
A recent analysis by Bruegel and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy provides insights into the measures Europe would need to undertake to deter potential aggression from Russia in the absence of US support. [1]
First, soldiers. Currently, the US has around 100,000 troops stationed on the continent, with NATO military planners assuming an additional 200,000 would be rapidly dispatched to Europe in the event of conflict.
A theoretical absence of US support, therefore, means considering how Europe may replace these 300,000 soldiers. Europe, including the UK, currently has almost 1.5 million active-duty military personnel. In theory, this makes replacing the 300,000 US troops easy enough. However, as analysis by Bruegel notes: “The combat power of 300,000 US troops is substantially greater than the equivalent number of European troops distributed over 29 national armies.”
A crucial weakness of European troops will be fragmentation. A Europe without US support, therefore, is faced with two choices: replace the 300,000 with substantially more soldiers – to offset the fragmented weakness – or rapidly enhance cooperation.
The challenge is also stark when it comes to equipment. The Bruegel analysis claims that preventing a rapid Russian breakthrough in the Baltic states would, at a minimum, require “1,400 tanks, 2,000 infantry fighting vehicles and 700 artillery pieces (155mm howitzers and multiple rocket launchers)”. To put this into perspective, that is more firepower than the French, German, Italian, and British land forces combined. And that is just for providing a credible deterrence in the Baltic states.
European states will also have to invest substantially in developing their own transport, missile, drone, communications, and intelligence capabilities.
Historic underspend
Future-proofing European defence against a potential absence of US support, therefore, is a tremendous task. Achieving anything approaching what is needed to shore up the continent’s defence will cost tremendous sums.
This has been made harder by the underspending on defence among European NATO members over the past few decades. The euphoria of the post-Cold War era saw European governments slash their defence spending. Money that had previously been spent on military security could be reallocated to spending on social security.
With Russia’s first invasion of Ukraine in 2014, NATO took steps to reverse this, principally by setting a defence spending target of 2% of GDP for members. But very few NATO members actually reached this target. As late as 2021, just 6 members of NATO spent 2% or more on defence.
However, as the graph below shows, the number of NATO members hitting the 2% target has rapidly ramped up, with 23 members now hitting the 2% target.
Source: NATO, June 2024. Data excludes the U.S. For illustrative purposes only. Chart displays expected data.
Yet the historic underspending by Europe leaves a hole in European defence capabilities. Figures from Exante Data shows that the cumulative underspend since 2014, relative to the 2% targets, among European NATO members equals €850bn. [2]
The road to 5%
The task for both readying Europe for defence challenges in a world without US support, as well as addressing the historic underfunding of European defence, will require defence spending rising significantly above 2% of GDP.
Currently, European (and Canada) NATO members spend, on average, around 2% of GDP on defence. If NATO ex-USA members were to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP, what would this look like? If certain assumptions are made, we can map out the bullish and bearish scenarios for NATO defence spending.
In our bull case scenario, we assume NATO ex-US defence budgets to increase to 5% of GDP by 2029, while assuming equipment spending as % of total NATO budget growing by 1% per year. It also includes assumptions of GDP growth per year standing at 2%.
In this scenario, equipment expenditure would increase by $350billion, over half the total revenue generated by defence companies in 2023.
Meanwhile, in our bear case scenario, equipment expenditure still grows by almost $100billion over the period. This bear case scenario assumes NATO ex-US defence budgets grow to 3.5% by 2029, with equipment expenditure remaining steady as a percentage of defence spending (31.6%) and GDP growth of 1% per year. This would see additional equipment expenditure increase by $92billion.
Source: NATO, HANetf analysis. Charts display projected data. For illustrative purposes only. Additional sources available upon request.
The Future of Defence
While the complete withdrawal of the US from NATO is a hypothetical scenario, these estimates underscore the significant investments and structural changes Europe would need to implement to maintain a credible defence posture independently.
Future of Defence UCITSETF (ASWC) seeks to provide exposure to the companies generating revenue from NATO and NATO+ ally defence and cyber defence spending. The “NATO screen” seeks to align with the values of investors who may have concerns about defence investing, but cannot ignore the current political climate, and therefore seek a smarter and more considered approach.
NATO is a defensive alliance and itself states that “deterrence and defence is one of its core tasks” – focusing on companies operating in NATO allied countries limits the possibility of constituents of the ETF being companies operating in countries that could one day be adversaries to the alliance.
Key Risks
• Thematic ETFs are exposed to a limited number of sectors and thus the investment will be concentrated and may experience high volatility.
• Investors’ capital is fully at risk and may not get back the amount originally invested.
• Exchange rates can have a positive or negative effect on returns.
• For a complete overview of all the risks, please refer to the “Risk Factors” in the Prospectus.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, SAVR och Avanza.