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Steel: U.S. Strong Despite Global Oversupply

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Steel: U.S. Strong Despite Global Oversupply Overview: The U.S. steel industry has been a developing, positive theme in 2016. Steel impacts the industrial metals components of VanEck's actively and passively managed natural resources strategies. As of March 31, 2016, steel-related companies accounted for approximately $250 million of the firm's assets under management.

Steel: U.S. Strong Despite Global Oversupply Overview: The U.S. steel industry has been a developing, positive theme in 2016. Steel impacts the industrial metals components of VanEck’s actively and passively managed natural resources strategies. As of March 31, 2016, steel-related companies accounted for approximately $250 million of the firm’s assets under management.

The global steel industry is oversupplied and is facing significant headwinds. 2015 was arguably a turbulent year for the industry, given these major negatives: China’s economic slowdown, falling prices, and a glut of foreign steel imports into the U.S. (mainly from China).

Despite the negative view for the global steel industry, we believe that the U.S. steel industry has bottomed and unique investment opportunities exist. Thus far in 2016, the U.S. steel industry has performed well, and, we believe, there are further compelling upside opportunities. In short, we see these positive signs: (1) a continuation of a strengthening U.S steel price environment (Chart A); (2) fundamentally better operating and financial conditions via improved capacity utilization (Chart B); and (3) the potential for an industry-wide multiple rerating, which has not occurred in a long time.

Chart A: U.S. Steel Prices Rebound in 2016 ($/ton)

VanEck2

Source: CRU, Morgan Stanley Research. HRC represents ”hot rolled coil”; CRC is ”cold rolled coil”; and HDG is ”hot dipped galvanized steel.” All represent types of steel. Data as of 4/30/2016.

Chart B: U.S. Steel Industry Operating Conditions/Rates (% Capacity Utilization)

VanEck3

Source: AISI, Morgan Stanley. Capacity utilization is a metric used to measure the rate at which potential output levels are being met or used; this chart demonstrates improvement thus far in 2016. Data as of 4/30/2016.

Flood of Supply from China

The global steel industry is oversupplied, with about 33% idle spare capacity. During the period from 2012 to 2015, global steel production increased from 1,554 million metric tons (mmt) per annum to 1,667 mmt per annum, a 113 mmt (or 7.3%) jump, of which 94 mmt came from new capacity in China.

The magnitude of this increase in global supply is best understood when stacked against demand. The U.S. is the world’s third largest consumer of steel, with a 120 mmt to 130 mmt per annum market, while the European Union is the second largest market at 140 mmt to 150 mmt per annum. (China is both the world’s largest consumer and producer.)

China’s Overcapacity Problem

China’s demand for steel began to wane just at the time that the country began aggressively increasing its domestic production. The net result was that steel once destined for the Chinese domestic market found its way onto the export market with Chinese exports increasing from 42 mmt per annum in 2012 to 100 mmt per annum in 2015 (see Chart C).

Chart C: China’s Net Steel Exports

VanEck4

Source: VanEck, Bloomberg. Data as of 4/30/2016.

Predictably, the increase in Chinese steel export volumes depressed international steel export prices. This placed significant price pressure on domestic steel prices in countries that are large importers of steel, such as the U.S.

U.S. Steel Prices’ 2015 Collapse

At the end of 2015, steel (hot rolled coil) exports from China traded at $250/ton and imports into the U.S. reached record highs of 30% of demand, compared with a more normalized level of 18% to 20%. With cheaper imported steel flooding the U.S. market, domestic prices collapsed from $480/ton to around $370/ton (-23%) between July 2015 and January 2016.

These low prices (last seen during the 2008/2009 global financial crisis) threw the U.S. steel industry into a crisis of reduced orders, idle mills, and significant layoffs. To protect itself, the industry turned to trade protection measures to help combat low-priced imports. The Leveling the Playing Field Act, passed in 2015, seeks to maintain a fair marketplace for U.S. steelmakers as it restores and strengthens anti-dumping rules and countervailing duties.

As a result, in March 2016 the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that both government subsidies and dumping were occurring and accordingly levied tariffs in the range of 282% to 493%. These are more than enough to lock out Chinese steel from the U.S. market.

Upside Potential for U.S. Steel Prices

Looking out post the implementation of these policies, we expect current U.S. domestic steel prices to have additional upside. We believe that the price of domestic steel could improve because: (1) the removal of ”dumped and government subsidized” steel from the domestic market will normalize the mix between domestic supply and imports; (2) inventories will be drawn down; and (3) upward pressure on raw material prices, such as coking coal and iron ore, will continue.

However, looking ahead to 2017, we do expect the market to soften as higher prices translate into increased supply either from the U.S. domestic market (U.S. steel utilization rate is around 74%) or from increased imports. Finally, the strong automotive and non-residential markets alone are not sufficient to offset a potential increase in U.S domestic supply and so a resurgence in demand from other industries, such as the energy industry, will be required.

Trade Protection Taking Shape

In conclusion, although the U.S steel industry has performed well to date in 2016, we believe the opportunity has more near-term upside potential as the enforcement of all trade protection laws is still in its early stages. As authorities eventually implement these policies for steel, it would not be surprising to see additional trade protection announcements being made covering other key U.S. commodities.

Charl Malan

by Charl Malan, Senior Analyst

Malan has more than 20 years of industry experience and is a member of the Hard Assets Team that manages VanEck’s Natural Resources Equity strategy. Malan specializes in base and industrial metals, and also serves on the gold and precious metals team. Read full bio.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE

* Any discussion of specific securities mentioned in this post is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation to buy these securities.

This content is published in the United States for residents of specified countries. Investors are subject to securities and tax regulations within their applicable jurisdictions that are not addressed on this content. Nothing in this content should be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell shares of any investment in any jurisdiction where the offer or solicitation would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction, nor is it intended as investment, tax, financial, or legal advice. Investors should seek such professional advice for their particular situation and jurisdiction. You can obtain more specific information on VanEck strategies by visiting Investment Strategies.

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck, and these opinions may change at any time and from time to time. Non-VanEck proprietary information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. Not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Historical performance is not indicative of future results. Current data may differ from data quoted. Any graphs shown herein are for illustrative purposes only. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck.

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Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis

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Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?
  • Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis
  • Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?
  • What are real-world assets and why do we need tokenization?

Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has amassed a staggering $43 billion in Bitcoin, positioning itself at the forefront of the corporate “reserve race.” Under the leadership of Bitcoin maximalist Michael Saylor, the company now boasts an $84 billion market cap. But with such an aggressive strategy, how sustainable is its approach—and what risks lie ahead? We break it down in today’s analysis.

Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?

A drop below $72,000 could flush longs, while a breakout above $90,000 may squeeze shorts. One key positive indicator is that Bitcoin continues to print higher lows since March 10, which preserves a bullish market structure in our view. Dive into our technical analysis.

What are real-world assets and why do we need tokenization?

Imagine owning a slice of a skyscraper or a piece of fine art with just a few clicks. Tokenization, the act of converting ownership rights to real-world assets (RWAs) into tradable tokens, has surpassed $10 billion in on-chain value, unlocking global 24/7 access to once-exclusive markets with liquidity, efficiency, and yield. Find out how it works.

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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BSE0 ETF köper bara företagsobligationer med förfall 2030

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Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc (BSE0 ETF) med ISIN IE000I25S1V5, försöker följa Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened-index. Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index följer företagsobligationer denominerade i EUR. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2030) i indexet. Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade. Löptid: december 2030 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).

Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc (BSE0 ETF) med ISIN IE000I25S1V5, försöker följa Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened-index. Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index följer företagsobligationer denominerade i EUR. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2030) i indexet. Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade. Löptid: december 2030 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,10 % p.a. Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc är den billigaste och största ETF som följer Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Ränteintäkterna (kupongerna) ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 6 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 18 juni 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Produktbeskrivning

Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF Acc syftar till att ge den totala avkastningen för Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index (”Referensindexet”), minus avgifternas inverkan. Fonden har en fast löptid och kommer att upphöra på Förfallodagen.

Referensindexet är utformat för att återspegla resultatet för EUR-denominerade, investeringsklassade, fast ränta, skattepliktiga skuldebrev emitterade av företagsemittenter. För att vara berättigade till inkludering måste företagsvärdepapper ha minst 300 miljoner euro i nominellt utestående belopp och en effektiv löptid på eller mellan 1 januari 2030 och 31 december 2030.

Värdepapper är uteslutna om emittenter: 1) är inblandade i kontroversiella vapen, handeldvapen, militära kontrakt, oljesand, termiskt kol eller tobak; 2) inte har en kontroversnivå enligt definitionen av Sustainalytics eller har en Sustainalytics-kontroversnivå högre än 4; 3) anses inte följa principerna i FN:s Global Compact; eller 4) kommer från tillväxtmarknader.

Portföljförvaltarna strävar efter att uppnå fondens mål genom att tillämpa en urvalsstrategi, som inkluderar användning av kvantitativ analys, för att välja en andel av värdepapperen från referensindexet som representerar hela indexets egenskaper, med hjälp av faktorer som index- vägd genomsnittlig varaktighet, industrisektorer, landvikter och kreditkvalitet. När en företagsobligation som innehas av fonden når förfallodag kommer kontanterna som fonden tar emot att användas för att investera i kortfristiga EUR-denominerade skulder.

ETFen förvaltas passivt.

En investering i denna fond är ett förvärv av andelar i en passivt förvaltad indexföljande fond snarare än i de underliggande tillgångarna som ägs av fonden.

Förfallodag: andra onsdagen i december 2026 eller sådant annat datum som bestäms av styrelseledamöterna och meddelas aktieägaren

Handla BSE0 ETF

Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Acc (BSE0 ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
XETRAEURBSE0

Största innehav

NamnCUSIPISINKupongräntaVikt %
Fresenius SE & Co KGaA 5.125% 05/10/30D2R9K1AL3XS26987136955.1252.55%
Mercedes-Benz Group AG 2.375% 22/05/30D1668RZW0DE000A289XG82.3752.19%
Akzo Nobel NV 1.625% 14/04/30N01803YV6XS21565982811.6252.08%
Eni SpA 0.625% 23/01/30T3666JJV9XS21073154700.6251.98%
Prologis International Funding II 2.375% 14/11/30L7763MAD2XS19046903412.3751.78%
REWE International Finance BV 4.875% 13/09/30N74119AA1XS26798981844.8751.65%
CaixaBank SA 4.25% 06/09/30E2R193R97XS26768144994.2501.64%
Verizon Communications Inc 4.25% 31/10/30XS25508811434.2501.64%
Liberty Mutual Group Inc 4.625% 02/12/30U52932BR7XS25616473684.6251.62%
AXA SA 3.75% 12/10/30F0609NBG2XS25372511703.7501.60%

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US regulatory shift provides a beacon for optimism

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Since President Trump appointed Mark Uyeda as acting SEC chair two months ago, many investigations into crypto businesses have been dropped, as the SEC moves away from regulation by enforcement and works to create a framework for digital assets. As regulations become clearer and news flow turns more positive, crypto prices—which dropped sharply this week—should begin to better reflect the new regulatory landscape in the US.

Since President Trump appointed Mark Uyeda as acting SEC chair two months ago, many investigations into crypto businesses have been dropped, as the SEC moves away from regulation by enforcement and works to create a framework for digital assets. As regulations become clearer and news flow turns more positive, crypto prices—which dropped sharply this week—should begin to better reflect the new regulatory landscape in the US.

We believe this regulatory shift could ultimately help trigger the next leg of the current bull run, as investors better understand the significance of regulatory clarity and seek to acquire bitcoin and altcoins at what we believe are currently very favorable levels.

Market Highlights

SEC Dismisses Crypto Enforcement Actions

The SEC dropped its enforcement actions against crypto-related companies Kraken, Consensys, and Cumberland DRW.

This indicates a shift in SEC’s regulatory approach, favoring clearer guidelines over enforcement actions. Such a pivot could foster a more predictable environment, encouraging innovation within the sector.

Banks to Engage in Crypto Activities

The FDIC has rescinded previous guidelines which prevented financial institutions from engaging with crypto activities without prior sign-off.

By removing bureaucratic hurdles, banks may more readily offer crypto-related services, potentially leading to broader adoption and integration of digital assets.

Bitcoin ETFs Inflow Streak Surpassed $1 Billion

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a 10-day inflow streak exceeding $1 billion marking the longest such streak in 2025.

This underscores growing institutional and retail investor confidence in Bitcoin as an asset class that helps increase market stability and possibly paving the way for the approval of other crypto-based financial products.

Market Metrics

All NCITM constituents had negative performance last week, with XRP (-10.8%) and UNI (-10.7%) seeing the steepest declines. ETH also experienced a sharp drop (-9.1%), contributing to NCITM’s underperformance relative to BTC (-2.9%). The NCITM -4.2% decline reflects a broader risk-off sentiment in the crypto market, as investors reassess their positions amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.

NCITM (-4.2%) extended its underperformance last week, deepening year-to-date losses. Traditional indices like the S&P 500 (-1.5%) and Nasdaq 100 (-2.4%) saw smaller declines. The gap between crypto and other risk assets continues to widen, while gold has emerged as the top performer in 2025, gaining nearly 20% amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. This trend highlights a growing risk-off sentiment, with investors shifting toward defensive assets and away from high-volatility investments.

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