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Soft Growth Patch and US Rate Rise Concerns Hit Cyclical Assets

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Soft Growth Patch and US Rate Rise Concerns Hit Cyclical Assets

Soft Growth Patch and US Rate Rise Concerns Hit Cyclical Assets ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly Soft Growth Patch and US Rate Rise Concerns Hit Cyclical Assets

Highlights

  • Cocoa climbs to a 3-year high on Ebola virus concerns.
  • Equity markets hit resistance near all-time highs.
  • US dollar continues to strengthen as Fed signals policy normalisation.
ETFSMW392014

Concerns about China’s growth outlook, stagnation in Europe and expectations of higher US interest rates put pressure on cyclical assets last week. Small cap and resource-linked equities were hit, a broad range of growth and interest rate sensitive commodities came under pressure as the US dollar moved higher. With China growth disappointing and Europe showing few signs of benefiting from recent ECB stimulus, markets appear on edge, particularly with expectations growing that US interest rates will start rising in H1 2015. In our view China growth will rebound later this year as government stimulus takes hold and the US recovery will help support global growth. Potential US rate increases and a strong dollar are a reflection of improving underlying US fundamentals and ultimately that improvement should benefit many cyclical assets. Commodities, in our view, have particularly strong rebound potential given their underperformance in recent years and many now trading at or below the marginal cost of production.

Commodities

Cocoa climbs to a 3-year high on Ebola virus concerns. Fears the Ebola virus may spread to the Ivory Coast, cocoa’s biggest producer, prompted a 5.4% gain in cocoa prices last week. With bordering Liberia and Guinea already plagued by the disease, there are concerns it is only a matter of time before the virus reaches the country. At the same time, the sugar price fell by 4.5% last week as the Brazilian cane harvest continued to progress well and monsoon rains in India have been steadily catching-up after a delayed start. Sugar is likely to remain under pressure in the near term as supply expectations for Brazil and India (together accounting for close to 40% of global output), remain abundant. The wheat price also continued to slide last week, dropping to a 4-year low. However, with wheat priced for perfect growing conditions, any small setback in weather could drive a price rally.

Equities

Equity markets hit resistance near all-time highs. With the exception of Germany, European equity benchmarks ended the week flat and the EURO STOXX 50® Investable Volatility Index dropped 7.8% over the past week, back near its all-time low. While a better-than-expected ZEW survey provided a boost to the LevDAX® x2 Index, up 2.1%, the decision of the Scots to remain part of the United Kingdom in their Independence vote last week will likely support UK equities in the coming week. Meanwhile, the underperformance of the Russell 2000® Index, which covers small cap US stocks, and the S&P 500 continues, indicating that investors continue to favour blue chip over riskier stocks as US equities hover near all-time highs.

Currencies

US dollar continues to strengthen as Fed signals policy normalisation. The US Federal Reserve has just taken the first step towards raising rates: announcing an end to its QE programme at its forthcoming meeting. We expect the US Dollar to remain supported, with the Fed signalling higher rates in 2015. The Fed’s last tightening cycle lasted from 2004 to 2006, when rates rose by 5 percentage points. While the UK remains united, we view the GBP rebound following the Scottish referendum as an opportunity to add to short GBP positions. The UK’s North-South economic divide is likely to cause policymakers headaches and has the potential to postpone rate rises and weigh on GBP. Eurozone banks failed to take advantage of the unlimited funds on offer from the ECB, taking up just €83bn of the ECB’s long-term refinancing funds. The ECB’s goal of significant balance sheet growth could be harder to achieve than expected and could prolong the depressed price environment

Important Information

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

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Which crypto assets will outperform Bitcoin in 2025?

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The outcome of the US election last month continues to reverberate through the crypto markets. The Nasdaq Crypto IndexTM (NCITM) has risen over 57% since November 5, fueled by widespread optimism over the direction of digital asset policy in the US.

The outcome of the US election last month continues to reverberate through the crypto markets. The Nasdaq Crypto IndexTM (NCITM) has risen over 57% since November 5, fueled by widespread optimism over the direction of digital asset policy in the US.

As I wrote in a previous note, crypto assets tend to follow a four-year cycle that includes a bull phase of roughly 12 months, followed by a year-long bear market, and then a two-year recovery period. In the previous two bull markets, altcoins (i.e., everything outside of BTC) have significantly outperformed the largest crypto asset.

I believe we’ve entered a bull market, reinforced by the macro environment and US election outcomes. But there’s another data point signaling a bull market—the outperformance of the NCITM relative to BTC.¹ In the last three months, the NCITM has had a higher return than BTC (78.0% vs. 76.5%) and since the election, the NCITM has outperformed BTC by 6.8%.

Crypto Asset Performance

So, which specific aspects of crypto are poised for outperformance this time around?

One key area to watch is smart contract projects, platforms that will allow users to transact not only information but value and property as well. We believe these platforms and applications will outperform BTC in the next 12-18 months as they compete for users and lay the groundwork for decentralized applications. On the back of the infrastructure developments we have seen in this area in the last few years, new applications are emerging across AI, gaming, and many other areas as tokenization continues to expand.

We also believe that new regulatory progress in 2025 will be more beneficial to these applications than to Bitcoin specifically, because Bitcoin already has regulatory clarity and a well-developed capital markets structure, with the growth of ETFs, options, and futures. In the US and Europe, this legislative and regulatory clarity that will benefit altcoins may include:

• Market structure legislation: Proposals like FIT21 will remove ambiguities regarding the commodity vs. security status of crypto assets, as well as create paths to registration that could boost adoption in the US.

Stablecoin legislation / MiCA implementation: Both will drive the adoption of stablecoins in the US and Europe, expanding the stablecoin phenomenon beyond just emerging markets.

• Repeal of SAB121: When this obstacle is removed and US banks can hold crypto for their clients, banks and brokerages will increase their crypto trading and custody offerings, which will benefit altcoins the most.

• New ETF launches: With the new SEC chair, there are renewed hopes for additional ETF approvals, including indices and single assets like Solana and XRP. There’s still much uncertainty here, but new assets having ETFs as on-ramps is highly positive.

In addition to Bitcoin developing as an emerging digital store of wealth and smart contract platforms becoming a new way to exchange information, value, and property, there are three other altcoin use cases we believe will benefit in the coming year:

  1. DeFi: Projects aimed at creating an internet-based financial system, running on smart contract platforms, will create a new global capital markets infrastructure for payments, with stablecoins and tokenized money market funds being the first important use cases.
  2. Web3: A new iteration of the internet that will let us own our data and make the internet decentralized and more usable for things like AI agents and other innovations.
  3. Digital Culture: An emerging digital-native generation will have more demand to own digital assets and collectibles, with gaming being a natural first application.

If we compare crypto to the internet, this industry is like the internet in the 1990s and Bitcoin could be compared to email—the only application most people hear about. But fast forward 20 years and while email is still very useful, it has not been the internet’s application that created the most societal value. We believe this could be true for how Bitcoin is currently viewed relative to crypto.

Benefits of diversification

Our team at Hashdex are firm believers that getting broad exposure to this market is necessary to capture the growth we believe we will experience in these other areas. Indices like the Nasdaq Crypto IndexTM (NCITM) can provide broader market exposure and, as crypto matures as an asset class, better risk-adjusted returns. Additionally, indices provide more significant optionality as investors don’t need to rely on an active manager to do this for them. The complexity and fast-evolving nature of crypto make it hard to pick individual winners and an index simplifies investing by offering a balanced, data-driven selection of assets that can align with modern portfolio theory principles.

This is why index ETFs have been at the core of our mission. Accessing crypto through these familiar structures allows investors to benefit from the growth of this asset class with minimal friction. For most investors, we most often recommend a very small allocation to crypto, from 1% to 5%. We strongly believe that a benchmark like the NCITM is an excellent way to “buy the market” and benefit from a strategic allocation into this promising asset class.

[1] The Nasdaq Crypto Index includes Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Ripple, Cardano, Chainlink, Avalanche, Litecoin, Polygon, and Uniswap as of 9/30/24


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ETFer från Xtrackers erbjuder tillgång till den taiwanesiska aktiemarknaden och klimatvänliga hållbara företag över hela världen

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Sedan i måndags har två ETFer från Xtrackers kunnat handlas på Xetra. Xtrackers MSCI Taiwan UCITS ETF (XTMT) följer utvecklingen av MSCI Taiwan 20/35 Custom Index. Investerare får därmed direkt tillgång till den taiwanesiska aktiemarknaden. Vikten för det största företaget är begränsad till 35 procent och de övriga företagens till 20 procent vardera. Det största företaget är för närvarande Taiwan Semiconductor. Totalt omfattar referensindexet 88 företag, som täcker cirka 85 procent av Taiwans börsvärde.

Sedan i måndags har två ETFer från Xtrackers kunnat handlas på Xetra. Xtrackers MSCI Taiwan UCITS ETF (XTMT) följer utvecklingen av MSCI Taiwan 20/35 Custom Index. Investerare får därmed direkt tillgång till den taiwanesiska aktiemarknaden. Vikten för det största företaget är begränsad till 35 procent och de övriga företagens till 20 procent vardera. Det största företaget är för närvarande Taiwan Semiconductor. Totalt omfattar referensindexet 88 företag, som täcker cirka 85 procent av Taiwans börsvärde.

Xtrackers MSCI World ESG UCITS ETF (XZWD) följer utvecklingen av MSCI World Low Carbon SRI Selection Index. Indexet inkluderar stora och medelstora företag från utvecklade länder över hela världen. De måste ha bättre ESG-egenskaper och lägre koldioxidutsläpp jämfört med sina kamrater.

Båda fonderna är tillgängliga för investerare i den utdelande andelsklassen.

NamnKortnamnISINAvgiftUtdelnings-
policy
Referens-
index
Xtrackers MSCI Taiwan UCITS ETFXTMTLU29286417570,29 %UtdelandeMSCI Taiwan 20/35 Custom Index
Xtrackers MSCI World ESG UCITS ETFXZWDIE000E4BATC90,20 %UtdelandeMSCI World Low Carbon SRI Selection Index

Produktutbudet i Deutsche Börses XTF-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 318 ETFer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på cirka 16 miljarder euro är Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer i Europa.

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MWON ETF köper aktier i företagen i S&P SmallCap 600

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Amundi S&P SmallCap 600 ESG UCITS ETF Dist (MWON ETF) med ISIN IE000XLJ2JQ9, försöker spåra S&P SmallCap 600 ESG+-index. S&P SmallCap 600 ESG+-index spårar amerikanska småbolagsaktier. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning).

Amundi S&P SmallCap 600 ESG UCITS ETF Dist (MWON ETF) med ISIN IE000XLJ2JQ9, försöker spåra S&P SmallCap 600 ESG+-index. S&P SmallCap 600 ESG+-index spårar amerikanska småbolagsaktier. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning).

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,35 % p.a. Amundi S&P SmallCap 600 ESG UCITS ETF Dist är den enda ETF som följer S&P SmallCap 600 ESG+ index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (Minst årligen).

Amundi S&P SmallCap 600 ESG UCITS ETF Dist har tillgångar på 117 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 20 januari 2023 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Investeringsmål

AMUNDI S&P SMALL CAP 600 ESG UCITS ETF DIST försöker replikera, så nära som möjligt, resultatet för S&P SmallCap 600 ESG+ Index oavsett om trenden stiger eller faller. Denna ETF erbjuder exponering mot värdepapper som uppfyller ESG-kriterier samtidigt som den bibehåller liknande branschgruppsvikter som S&P SmallCap 600 Index.

Handla MWON ETF

Amundi S&P SmallCap 600 ESG UCITS ETF Dist (MWON ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och SIX Swiss Exchange.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEURMWON
SIX Swiss ExchangeUSDUSASUS
SIX Swiss ExchangeCHFUSASUS
XETRAEURMWON

Största innehav

Denna fond använder sig av fysisk replikering för att spåra indexets utveckling.

NamnValutaVikt %Sektor
ABERCROMBIE FITCH -A-USD1.08 %Sällanköpsvaror
FABRINETUSD1.06 %Informationsteknologi
ATI INCUSD0.95 %Materials
SPS COMMERCE INCUSD0.83 %Informationsteknologi
ENSIGN GROUP INCUSD0.82 %Health Care
MUELLER INDUSTRIES INCUSD0.79 %Industri
MERITAGE HOMES CUSD0.79 %Sällanköpsvaror
SPX TECHNOLOGIES INCUSD0.76 %Industri
SEALED AIR CORPUSD0.70 %Materials
LINCOLN NATIONAL CORPUSD0.69 %Finans

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