Soft Growth Patch and US Rate Rise Concerns Hit Cyclical Assets ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly Soft Growth Patch and US Rate Rise Concerns Hit Cyclical Assets
Highlights
Cocoa climbs to a 3-year high on Ebola virus concerns.
Equity markets hit resistance near all-time highs.
US dollar continues to strengthen as Fed signals policy normalisation.
Concerns about China’s growth outlook, stagnation in Europe and expectations of higher US interest rates put pressure on cyclical assets last week. Small cap and resource-linked equities were hit, a broad range of growth and interest rate sensitive commodities came under pressure as the US dollar moved higher. With China growth disappointing and Europe showing few signs of benefiting from recent ECB stimulus, markets appear on edge, particularly with expectations growing that US interest rates will start rising in H1 2015. In our view China growth will rebound later this year as government stimulus takes hold and the US recovery will help support global growth. Potential US rate increases and a strong dollar are a reflection of improving underlying US fundamentals and ultimately that improvement should benefit many cyclical assets. Commodities, in our view, have particularly strong rebound potential given their underperformance in recent years and many now trading at or below the marginal cost of production.
Commodities
Cocoa climbs to a 3-year high on Ebola virus concerns. Fears the Ebola virus may spread to the Ivory Coast, cocoa’s biggest producer, prompted a 5.4% gain in cocoa prices last week. With bordering Liberia and Guinea already plagued by the disease, there are concerns it is only a matter of time before the virus reaches the country. At the same time, the sugar price fell by 4.5% last week as the Brazilian cane harvest continued to progress well and monsoon rains in India have been steadily catching-up after a delayed start. Sugar is likely to remain under pressure in the near term as supply expectations for Brazil and India (together accounting for close to 40% of global output), remain abundant. The wheat price also continued to slide last week, dropping to a 4-year low. However, with wheat priced for perfect growing conditions, any small setback in weather could drive a price rally.
Equities
Equity markets hit resistance near all-time highs. With the exception of Germany, European equity benchmarks ended the week flat and the EURO STOXX 50® Investable Volatility Index dropped 7.8% over the past week, back near its all-time low. While a better-than-expected ZEW survey provided a boost to the LevDAX® x2 Index, up 2.1%, the decision of the Scots to remain part of the United Kingdom in their Independence vote last week will likely support UK equities in the coming week. Meanwhile, the underperformance of the Russell 2000® Index, which covers small cap US stocks, and the S&P 500 continues, indicating that investors continue to favour blue chip over riskier stocks as US equities hover near all-time highs.
Currencies
US dollar continues to strengthen as Fed signals policy normalisation. The US Federal Reserve has just taken the first step towards raising rates: announcing an end to its QE programme at its forthcoming meeting. We expect the US Dollar to remain supported, with the Fed signalling higher rates in 2015. The Fed’s last tightening cycle lasted from 2004 to 2006, when rates rose by 5 percentage points. While the UK remains united, we view the GBP rebound following the Scottish referendum as an opportunity to add to short GBP positions. The UK’s North-South economic divide is likely to cause policymakers headaches and has the potential to postpone rate rises and weigh on GBP. Eurozone banks failed to take advantage of the unlimited funds on offer from the ECB, taking up just €83bn of the ECB’s long-term refinancing funds. The ECB’s goal of significant balance sheet growth could be harder to achieve than expected and could prolong the depressed price environment
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GLOBAL X EURO STOXX 50 Covered CallUCITSETFinvesterar i de 50 största börsnoterade företagen från Europa och säljer samtidigt köpoptioner på dessa aktier. Fonden genererar intäkter från premierna vid försäljning av optionerna. I sin tur är uppåtpotentialen begränsad om aktiekurserna stiger, eftersom optionerna kan utnyttjas.
Franklin US Mega Cap 100 UCITSETF investerar i de 100 största börsnoterade företagen i USA, såsom Apple, Nvidia eller Microsoft.
Xtrackers MSCI EMU UCITSETFinvesterar i aktiemarknaderna i de tio länderna i Europeiska ekonomiska och monetära unionen (EMU). Företag från Frankrike (32,5 %) och Tyskland (29,4 %) är starkast representerade.
Xtrackers MSCI World Screened UCITSETF investerar i stora och medelstora företag från 23 utvecklade länder världen över, med vissa företag undantagna baserat på ESG-kriterier.
Produktutbudet inom Deutsche Börses ETF- och ETP-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 420 ETFer, 200 ETCer och 257 ETNer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på cirka 23 miljarder euro är Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer och ETPer i Europa.
iShares MSCI Europe Climate Transition Aware UCITSETF EUR (Dist) (ECTD ETF) med ISIN IE000ZQF1PE1, försöker spåra MSCI Europe Transition Aware Select-index. MSCI Europe Transition Aware Select-index följer europeiska aktier. Indexet är utformat för att representera företag som bidrar till klimatomställningen. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning). Moderindex är MSCI Europe-index.
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,12 % p.a. iShares MSCI Europe Climate Transition Aware UCITSETF EUR (Dist) är den billigaste ETF som följer MSCI Europe Transition Aware Select-index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom full replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (halvårsvis).
iShares MSCI Europe Climate Transition Aware UCITSETF EUR (Dist) är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 0 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 11 juni 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Ivesteringsmål
Fonden strävar efter att uppnå en total avkastning på din investering, genom en kombination av kapitaltillväxt och inkomst på fondens tillgångar, vilket återspeglar avkastningen från MSCI Europe Transition Aware Select Index, fondens jämförelseindex (”Index”).
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.