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Soft Growth Patch and US Rate Rise Concerns Hit Cyclical Assets

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Soft Growth Patch and US Rate Rise Concerns Hit Cyclical Assets

Soft Growth Patch and US Rate Rise Concerns Hit Cyclical Assets ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly Soft Growth Patch and US Rate Rise Concerns Hit Cyclical Assets

Highlights

  • Cocoa climbs to a 3-year high on Ebola virus concerns.
  • Equity markets hit resistance near all-time highs.
  • US dollar continues to strengthen as Fed signals policy normalisation.
ETFSMW392014

Concerns about China’s growth outlook, stagnation in Europe and expectations of higher US interest rates put pressure on cyclical assets last week. Small cap and resource-linked equities were hit, a broad range of growth and interest rate sensitive commodities came under pressure as the US dollar moved higher. With China growth disappointing and Europe showing few signs of benefiting from recent ECB stimulus, markets appear on edge, particularly with expectations growing that US interest rates will start rising in H1 2015. In our view China growth will rebound later this year as government stimulus takes hold and the US recovery will help support global growth. Potential US rate increases and a strong dollar are a reflection of improving underlying US fundamentals and ultimately that improvement should benefit many cyclical assets. Commodities, in our view, have particularly strong rebound potential given their underperformance in recent years and many now trading at or below the marginal cost of production.

Commodities

Cocoa climbs to a 3-year high on Ebola virus concerns. Fears the Ebola virus may spread to the Ivory Coast, cocoa’s biggest producer, prompted a 5.4% gain in cocoa prices last week. With bordering Liberia and Guinea already plagued by the disease, there are concerns it is only a matter of time before the virus reaches the country. At the same time, the sugar price fell by 4.5% last week as the Brazilian cane harvest continued to progress well and monsoon rains in India have been steadily catching-up after a delayed start. Sugar is likely to remain under pressure in the near term as supply expectations for Brazil and India (together accounting for close to 40% of global output), remain abundant. The wheat price also continued to slide last week, dropping to a 4-year low. However, with wheat priced for perfect growing conditions, any small setback in weather could drive a price rally.

Equities

Equity markets hit resistance near all-time highs. With the exception of Germany, European equity benchmarks ended the week flat and the EURO STOXX 50® Investable Volatility Index dropped 7.8% over the past week, back near its all-time low. While a better-than-expected ZEW survey provided a boost to the LevDAX® x2 Index, up 2.1%, the decision of the Scots to remain part of the United Kingdom in their Independence vote last week will likely support UK equities in the coming week. Meanwhile, the underperformance of the Russell 2000® Index, which covers small cap US stocks, and the S&P 500 continues, indicating that investors continue to favour blue chip over riskier stocks as US equities hover near all-time highs.

Currencies

US dollar continues to strengthen as Fed signals policy normalisation. The US Federal Reserve has just taken the first step towards raising rates: announcing an end to its QE programme at its forthcoming meeting. We expect the US Dollar to remain supported, with the Fed signalling higher rates in 2015. The Fed’s last tightening cycle lasted from 2004 to 2006, when rates rose by 5 percentage points. While the UK remains united, we view the GBP rebound following the Scottish referendum as an opportunity to add to short GBP positions. The UK’s North-South economic divide is likely to cause policymakers headaches and has the potential to postpone rate rises and weigh on GBP. Eurozone banks failed to take advantage of the unlimited funds on offer from the ECB, taking up just €83bn of the ECB’s long-term refinancing funds. The ECB’s goal of significant balance sheet growth could be harder to achieve than expected and could prolong the depressed price environment

Important Information

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

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WEL8 ETF är en satsning på globala finansföretag

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Amundi S&P Global Financials ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) (WEL8 ETF) med ISIN IE000ENYES77, försöker följa S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Financials-index. S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Financials-index spårar stora och medelstora företag från finanssektorn. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning).

Amundi S&P Global Financials ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) (WEL8 ETF) med ISIN IE000ENYES77, försöker följa S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Financials-index. S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Financials-index spårar stora och medelstora företag från finanssektorn. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning).

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,18 % p.a. Amundi S&P Global Financials ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) är den billigaste ETF som följer S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Financials index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (Årligen).

Amundi S&P Global Financials ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 2 miljoner euro under förvaltning. ETFen lanserades den 20 september 2022 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Investeringsmål

AMUNDI S&P GLOBAL FINANCIALS ESG UCITS ETF DR – EUR (D) försöker replikera, så nära som möjligt, resultatet av S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Financials Index (Netto Total return index). Denna ETF har exponering mot stora och medelstora företag i utvecklade länder. Den innehåller uteslutningskriterier för tobak, kontroversiella vapen, civila och militära handeldvapen, termiskt kol, olja och gas (inkl. Arctic Oil & Gas), oljesand, skiffergas. Den är också utformad för att välja ut och omvikta företag för att tillsammans förbättra hållbarhet och ESG-profiler, uppfylla miljömål och minska koldioxidavtrycket.

Handla WEL8 ETF

Amundi S&P Global Financials ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) (WEL8 ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEURWELY
XETRAUSDWEL8
XETRAEURWELY

Största innehav

Denna fond använder fysisk replikering för att spåra indexets prestanda.

NamnValutaVikt %Sektor
JPMORGAN CHASE & COUSD6.31 %Finans
VISA INC-CLASS A SHARESUSD5.15 %Finans
MASTERCARD INC-CL AUSD4.41 %Finans
BANK OF AMERICA CORPUSD3.18 %Finans
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIAAUD1.86 %Finans
S&P GLOBAL INCUSD1.85 %Finans
HSBC HLDGING PLC GBPGBP1.82 %Finans
ROYAL BANK OF CANADA CADCAD1.78 %Finans
MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUPJPY1.61 %Finans
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCUSD1.57 %Finans

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Tariffs spark turmoil: BTC holds its ground

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President Trump announced a highly aggressive tariff package—one with broad macroeconomic implications—and global markets reacted sharply. In this environment of heightened volatility, we urge investors to maintain perspective, just as they should when prices are volatile to the upside (e.g., last year’s post-election rally).

President Trump announced a highly aggressive tariff package—one with broad macroeconomic implications—and global markets reacted sharply. In this environment of heightened volatility, we urge investors to maintain perspective, just as they should when prices are volatile to the upside (e.g., last year’s post-election rally).

Notably, since the election, bitcoin and the Nasdaq Crypto Index have outperformed gold, the S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100. Even in the wake of the tariffs, only gold has outpaced bitcoin and the NCI—highlighting the relative strength of digital assets amid global market declines.

Market Highlights

Stablecoin legislation advances in US

The House Financial Services Committee voted to advance a monumental bill to regulate stablecoins, the STABLE Act, following the Senate Banking Committee approval of similar legislation earlier this year.

President Trump has said he wants stablecoin legislation approved by Congress before its August recess, reinforcing the new administration’s focus on establishing clear crypto regulation.

Tokenized fund sets dividend benchmark

BlackRock’s BUIDL paid an estimated $4.17 million in monthly dividends during March.

This highlights the potential of crypto to create attractive investment instruments, such as tokenized funds, which stood out this month paying massive dividends and setting a new benchmark for the class.

SEC chair orders review of crypto guidance

Acting SEC Chair Mark T. Uyeda ordered a review of past staff guidance on crypto, including risk warnings and interpretations of the Howey test.

This move, like others before, signals a broader shift toward a more open regulatory approach, potentially strengthening the presence of bitcoin and other digital assets in the US in the near future.

Market Metrics

The NCITM constituents had another negative week, with only XRP (-7.0%) and BTC (-3.8%) avoiding double-digit losses. The overall NCITM decline of -5.2% was cushioned by BTC’s relative resilience, as it performed better as a store-of-value asset. However, the drop still reflects a broader risk-off sentiment across all markets, driven by Trump’s tariff policies and growing macroeconomic uncertainties that are prompting investors to reassess their positions.

This week, the NCITM fell -5.3%, narrowing the gap with traditional indices such as the Nasdaq 100 (-9.8%) and S&P 500 (-9.1%) which experienced sharper losses following Trump’s tariff announcements. BTC (-3.8%) performed similarly to gold (-3.3%), though gold remains the top-performing asset class year-to-date. The week reinforced the risk-off sentiment, with investors broadly retreating from risk assets. Still, it also highlighted crypto’s growing relevance, as the most volatile asset class managed to outperform traditional markets in a stressed environment.

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JMES ETF en aktivt förvaltad fond från JPMorgan

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JPMorgan Global Emerging Markets Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned Active UCITS ETF USD (acc) (JMES ETF) med ISIN IE000ANHU3J3, är en aktivt förvaltad börshandlad fond.

JPMorgan Global Emerging Markets Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned Active UCITS ETF USD (acc) (JMES ETF) med ISIN IE000ANHU3J3, är en aktivt förvaltad börshandlad fond.

JP Morgan Global Emerging Markets Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned Active Strategy investerar i företag från tillväxtmarknader. ETF strävar efter att generera en högre avkastning än MSCI Emerging Markets SRI EU PAB Overlay ESG Custom-index. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning). Dessutom beaktas EUs direktiv om klimatskydd.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,30 % p.a. Utdelningarna i ETF:n ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

JPMorgan Global Emerging Markets Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned Active UCITS ETF USD (acc) är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 2 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 5 mars 2025 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Investeringsmål

Delfondens mål är att uppnå en långsiktig avkastning som överstiger MSCI Emerging Markets SRI EU PAB Overlay ESG Custom Index* (”riktmärket”) genom att aktivt investera i huvudsak i en portfölj av tillväxtmarknadsföretag, samtidigt som målen i Parisavtalet är i linje.

Handla JMES ETF

JPMorgan Global Emerging Markets Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned Active UCITS ETF USD (acc) (JMES ETF)

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel  Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEURJMES
Borsa ItalianaEURJSEM
London Stock ExchangeGBXJSME
London Stock ExchangeUSDJSEM
SIX Swiss ExchangeUSDJSEM
XETRAEURJMES

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