Följ oss

Nyheter

Silver may benefit from upturn in industrial cycle

Publicerad

den

ETF Securities Commodity Research: Silver may benefit from upturn in industrial cycle We expect silver’s fair-value at end-2018 to be US$18.5 to 19.5/oz.

ETF Securities Commodity Research: Silver may benefit from upturn in industrial cycle

Highlights

Silver has underperformed in 2017 with weak investor demand. Gold has been the choice metal for defensive plays, while a rally in equities has overshadowed silver’s cyclical qualities.

In 2018, we expect silver to play catch-up, while gold remains broadly flat.

Continued strength in the industrial cycle and a constrained mine supply would keep the metal in a supply deficit.

We expect silver’s fair-value at end-2018 to be US$18.5 to 19.5/oz.

In our gold outlook published in December 2017, we wrote about why we think gold will remain flat in 2018. While there could be upside surprises for inflation (gold price positive), rising interest rates and an appreciating US dollar (both gold price negative) would leave gold prices broadly flat. Silver, on the other hand may rise as industrial demand continues to increase and silver plays catch-up with gold after a year of under-performance.

Our silver modeli ties the performance of silver to gold. Over the past five years, monthly silver returns have had an 83% correlation with monthly gold returns. However in 2017, silver severely underperformed gold. Gold rose 10% in 2017, while silver ended the year almost exactly where it started. Gold seemed to have benefited more than silver from periodic bouts of rising geopolitical risk. A continued rally in cyclical assets such as equities diverted investor attention away from silver. Silver exchange traded products saw only 6.2 million troy ounces of inflows in 2017. That is less than a seventh of the inflows seen in 2016. By end of December 2017, net speculative longs in silver futures fell to 3545 contracts, the lowest since October 2014. It appears that silver did not benefit from its correlation with gold nor could it leverage off its cyclical status.

The gold to silver price ratio remains elevated.

Even though gold prices will likely be flat in 2018, we think that silver has some catching up to do.

Industrial cycle

Our silver model includes a proxy for industrial demand for silver. With more than 50% of silver being used in industrial applications, silver shares many traits of industrial metals, while gold operates more like a monetary asset.

Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) have been rising over the past year. Developed markets are growing at a faster rate than developing markets. We expect some further gains in global PMIs as developing countries gather momentum, with beneficial spill-overs from developed nations. We think the PMI index will rise to 55.0 to 55.5 at the end of 2018 from 54.5 in December 2017.

Mining capex continues to remain subdued

Our model includes a proxy for supply constraints from mines. We take an 18-month lag on capital expenditure (capex) on mines. Given that only 25% of silver is mined directly, while the remaining 75% comes as a by-product from mining for other metals, we look at mining across the sector rather than dedicated silver mines.

The current downturn in mining capex is the deepest since our data begun in 1997. Although the pace of capex decline has eased in the second half of 2017, the length of the decline has been the longest in our dataset.

This deep decline in mining investment is likely to keep silver in a supply deficit. According to GFMS/The Silver Institute data the silver market has been in a supply deficit since 2013. Although their data does not include 2017 figures yet, lower mining volumes and higher industrial demand is likely to have kept the market in deficit despite lower investment demand.

Exchange inventory likely to decline

COMEX exchange inventories have risen substantially in 2017. Taken at face-value this could indicate greater metal availability. However, most of the gains have come from eligible rather than registered inventories. Eligible inventory simply means the silver is held in COMEX’s approved warehouses but a warrant has not been issued against it. So it is not being held by the owner to settle futures transactions (at least until it is converted into registered). The rise in eligible inventory could be a consequence of the owner choosing to use COMEX warehouses to park their silver (i.e. owner may want to hold onto the silver rather use it for futures market transactions and so it is not available to the market). We expect a decline in total inventory, back to levels seen at the beginning of 2017, as investor demand encourages owners of this metal to sell.

For more information contact:

Catarina Donat Marques
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 20 7448 4386
E catarina.donatmarques@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Fortsätt läsa
Annons
Klicka för att kommentera

Skriv en kommentar

Din e-postadress kommer inte publiceras. Obligatoriska fält är märkta *

Nyheter

Fastställd utdelning i MONTDIV april 2025

Publicerad

den

Idag fastställdes utdelningen i MONTDIV april 2025. Montrose Global Monthly Dividend MSCI World UCITS ETF (MONTDIV ETF) fastställdes till 0,39465 kronor per andel. Utdelningen i MONTDIV april 2025 beräknas betalas ut den 12 maj 2025.

Idag fastställdes utdelningen i MONTDIV april 2025. Montrose Global Monthly Dividend MSCI World UCITS ETF (MONTDIV ETF) fastställdes till 0,39465 kronor per andel. Utdelningen i MONTDIV april 2025 beräknas betalas ut den 12 maj 2025.

Handla MONTDIV ETF

Montrose Global Monthly Dividend MSCI World UCITS ETF (MONTDIV ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på Nasdaq Stockholm.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel  NordnetSAVRDEGIRO och Avanza.

Fortsätt läsa

Nyheter

WELG ETF en satsning på healthcareföretag världen över

Publicerad

den

Amundi S&P Global Health Care ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) (WELG ETF) med ISIN IE000JKS50V3, strävar efter att spåra S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Health Care-index. Det S&P-utvecklade ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Health Care-indexet spårar stora och medelstora företag från hälso- och sjukvårdssektorn. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning).

Amundi S&P Global Health Care ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) (WELG ETF) med ISIN IE000JKS50V3, strävar efter att spåra S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Health Care-index. Det S&P-utvecklade ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Health Care-indexet spårar stora och medelstora företag från hälso- och sjukvårdssektorn. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning).

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,18 % p.a. Amundi S&P Global Health Care ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) är den billigaste ETF som följer S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Health Care-index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (Årligen).

Amundi S&P Global Health Care ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) är en mycket liten ETF med 17 miljoner euro förvaltade tillgångar. ETFen lanserades den 20 september 2022 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Investeringsmål

AMUNDI S&P GLOBAL HEALTH CARE ESG UCITS ETF DR – EUR (D) försöker replikera, så nära som möjligt, resultatet av S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Health Care Index (Netto Total Return Index). Denna ETF har exponering mot stora och medelstora företag i utvecklade länder. Den innehåller uteslutningskriterier för tobak, kontroversiella vapen, civila och militära handeldvapen, termiskt kol, olja och gas (inkl. Arctic Oil & Gas), oljesand, skiffergas. Den är också utformad för att välja ut och omvikta företag för att tillsammans förbättra hållbarhet och ESG-profiler, uppfylla miljömål och minska koldioxidavtrycket.

Handla WELG ETF

Amundi S&P Global Health Care ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) (WELG ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEURWELG
XETRAUSDWELZ
XETRAEURWELG

Största innehav

Denna fond använder fysisk replikering för att spåra indexets prestanda.

NamnValutaViktSektor
ELI LILLY & COUSD10.29 %Health Care
UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INCUSD7.99 %Health Care
NOVO NORDISK A/S-BDKK6.32 %Health Care
ABBVIE INCUSD6.12 %Health Care
ASTRAZENECA GBPGBP5.26 %Health Care
ROCHE HOLDING AG – GENUSSSCHF4.18 %Health Care
MERCK & CO. INC.USD3.93 %Health Care
NOVARTIS AG-REGCHF3.70 %Health Care
ABBOTT LABORATORIESUSD3.43 %Health Care
SANOFIEUR2.58 %Health Care

Innehav kan komma att förändras

Fortsätt läsa

Nyheter

Amundi noterar ETF för globala företagsobligationer

Publicerad

den

Amundi Global Corporate Bond UCITS ETF investerar globalt i företagsobligationer med fast ränta, denominerade i lokal valuta och har en investment grade-rating. De måste ha en återstående löptid på minst ett år.

Amundi Global Corporate Bond UCITS ETF investerar globalt i företagsobligationer med fast ränta, denominerade i lokal valuta och har en investment grade-rating. De måste ha en återstående löptid på minst ett år.

Andelsklassen är valutasäkrad mot amerikanska dollar och delar ut avkastningen.

NamnISIN
Kortnamn
KostnadUtdelnings-
policy
Amundi Global Corporate Bond UCITS ETF USD Hedged DistLU2996613266
USBG (USD)
0,17%Utdelande

Produktutbudet inom Deutsche Börses ETF- och ETP-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 405 ETFer, 198 ETCer och 256 ETNer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på mer än 21 miljarder euro är Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer och ETPer i Europa.

Fortsätt läsa

Populära