ETF Securities Commodity ETP Weekly Signs of Slowing US Shale Output Lifts Crude
Investors lock in profits as crude benchmarks rally.
Investors shed long copper exposure as price rebounds.
Soft US data prompts precious metal price recovery.
After last week’s revelation that US consumer prices had tipped into deflation on an annual basis and retail sales surprised to the downside, investors will be monitoring US manufacturing and home sales data for continued signs of weakness. Any subpar data readings that reflect a moderation of US growth could delay market expectations of tightening and prove bullish for precious metals. In Europe, investor’s brace for a Greek default as signs emerge of deteriorating relations between the newly elected Syriza party and international creditors, calling into question Greece’s Eurozone membership. Investors lock in profits as crude benchmarks rally. Investors withdrew US$52mn of funds from ETPs providing exposure to US crude this week as the price hit the highest level this year. Following a 25 week streak of inflows, long WTI ETPs have experienced the largest four weeks of outflows since 2010. ETFS Daily Leveraged WTICrude Oil (LOIL) witnessed US$21.1mn of outflows, as US crude inventories grew by 1.3mn barrels, 2.7mn barrels below market expectations, indicating that US shale production may finally be declining in the face of recent price weakness. The weak inventory build corroborated an Energy Information Administration (EIA) report released earlier in the week that forecasted that US shale oil production would start to drop in May. Adding further to bullish sentiment was the withdrawal of government forces from oilfields in Yemen, reflecting a deteriorating internal situation which threatens the security of key oil transit routes. Going forward the price of crude will likely grind higher as shale output shows further signs of curbing and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain elevated. The main downside risks to the price in the near term are US Dollar strength and the potential for onshore oil storage capacity to reach limits and force supply onto the market.
Investors shed long copper exposure as price rebounds. The price of copper has rebounded from January lows, driven in part by the recent pullback in the US Dollar and the reduction of the Chinese Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). Long copper ETPs saw US$14.2mn of redemptions as investors harvest profits from the recent price bounce. Following data that showed that China grew at the slowest pace in six years, policy makers are under intensifying pressure to support growth targets. Investors in the copper futures market have cut short positions from record highs as accommodative measures are likely to boost the red metal and sustain its recent strong performance.
Soft US data prompts precious metal price recovery. Recent weak retail sales and jobs data has relieved bearish pressure on the precious metals complex. Soft US data pushed back expectations of rate normalisation which weakened the Dollar and boosted precious metals, with gold and silver rising 0.8% and 1.0% respectively. Gold and silver ETPs benefited seeing a total of US$7.1mn of inflows.
Key events to watch this week. This week cyclical commodities are likely to be in focus following recent stimulus measures announced by Chinese authorities and the release of manufacturing data for US, China and Europe. In Europe, aside from Greek debt negotiations, the UK will be under the spotlight as the Bank of England (BOE) releases minutes from its April meeting and the general election draws closer.
Video Presentation
Joshpreet Tiwana, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
Important Information
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.
Last week, the Nasdaq Crypto Index™ (NCI™) climbed 9.4%, continuing its strong upward trend. Bitcoin (BTC) rose 8.0%, maintaining its momentum as it approaches $100,000, while Ethereum (ETH) gained 8.7%, building on its post-election strength. Solana (SOL) also saw positive movement, up 6.3%, showcasing resilience amidst broader market dynamics. Since the US elections, the NCI has risen significantly, reflecting growing optimism in the crypto space, particularly with regards to assets beyond BTC and ETH. This continued upward trajectory highlights the outperformance of crypto assets against traditional markets, driven by increasing investor confidence and expectations of more favorable regulatory clarity in the near future.
Bitcoin topples Saudi Aramco to become world’s seventh-largest asset
Bitcoin reached an historic milestone, surpassing Saudi Aramco to become the world’s seventh-largest asset by market capitalization, valued at $1.82 trillion, just days after overtaking silver. This achievement places BTC behind only Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, NVIDIA, and gold. This milestone symbolizes BTC’s remarkable evolution as it approaches 16 years since its creation, solidifying its position as one of the world’s most valuable and influential assets.
SEC ccommissioner pledges crypto-forward approach after Gensler resignation
SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda, a potential candidate to lead the agency following Gary Gensler’s resignation, has pledged to prioritize regulatory clarity for crypto assets if selected and criticized Gensler’s “anti-crypto” stance, proposing the creation of regulatory sandboxes to foster innovation in the US. This potential appointment could mark a turning point for the crypto industry, bringing clearer regulations, encouraging innovation, and creating a more favorable environment for market growth in the US.
Coinbase CEO plans to discuss personnel appointments with president-elect Trump
Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, plans to meet with Donald Trump, to discuss potential appointments in the new administration, including the plan to create a ”Presidential Bitcoin and Crypto Council” for clear regulatory guidance. After facing actions from the SEC, Armstrong has taken a more active political stance, supporting pro-crypto candidates and contributing millions of dollars to the Fairshake PAC, an alliance to support political candidates committed to securing the US as the home to innovators building the next generation of the internet. This meeting highlights the growing interaction between the crypto industry and the political landscape and signals a potential regulatory shift in the US favorable to the crypto market, bringing greater political influence and growth opportunities for the sector.
First Trust Nasdaq Cybersecurity UCITSETF EUR Hedged Acc (CBEU ETF), med ISIN IE000P16KP52, försöker spåra Nasdaq CTA Cybersecurity (EUR Hedged)-index. Nasdaq CTA Cybersecurity (EUR Hedged)-index spårar företag som är aktivt involverade i att tillhandahålla cybersäkerhetsteknik och -tjänster. Valutasäkrad till euro (EUR).
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,60 % p.a. First Trust Nasdaq Cybersecurity UCITSETF EUR Hedged Acc är den enda ETF som följer Nasdaq CTA Cybersecurity (EUR Hedged) index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom full replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.
First Trust Nasdaq Cybersecurity UCITSETF EUR Hedged Accär en liten ETF med tillgångar på 44 miljoner GBP under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 18 juli 2023 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Investeringsmål/strategi
First Trust Nasdaq Cybersecurity ETF är en börshandlad fond. Fonden eftersträvar investeringsresultat som generellt motsvarar priset och avkastningen (före fondens avgifter och utgifter) för ett aktieindex som kallas Nasdaq CTA Cybersecurity Index™.
Det finns ingen garanti för att fondens investeringsmål kommer att uppnås.
Index Beskrivning Enligt Indexleverantören
Nasdaq CTA Cybersecurity™ Index är utformat för att spåra resultatet för företag som är engagerade i cybersäkerhetssegmentet inom teknik- och industrisektorerna. Det inkluderar företag som primärt är involverade i att bygga, implementera och hantera säkerhetsprotokoll som tillämpas på privata och offentliga nätverk, datorer och mobila enheter för att skydda data- och nätverksdriftens integritet.
För att ingå i indexet måste ett värdepapper vara noterat på en indexberättigad global börs och klassificeras som ett cybersäkerhetsföretag enligt bestämt av Consumer Technology Association (CTA).
Varje värdepapper måste ha ett världsomspännande börsvärde på 500 miljoner USD, ha en minsta tremånaders genomsnittlig daglig handelsvolym i dollar på 1 miljon USD och ha ett minimum fritt flytande på 20 %.
Indexet utvärderas halvårsvis i mars och september, men om ett indexpapper vid någon annan tidpunkt under året än utvärderingen inte längre uppfyller behörighetskriterierna, eller på annat sätt bedöms ha blivit olämpligt att ingå i indexet, säkerhet tas bort från indexet och ersätts inte. Varje indexpapper som når sin utländska investeringsgräns mellan kvartalsvisa ombalanseringar tas bort från indexet.
Indexet använder en viktningsmetod baserad på fritt flytande marknadsvärde, som inkluderar tak för procentandelen av varje enskilt värdepapper för att härleda de slutliga vikterna för värdepapperen. Inget värdepapper får vägas mindre än 0,25 %.
Amundi Bloomberg Equal-weight Commodity ex-Agriculture UCITSETFAcc (LYTR ETF) med ISIN LU1829218749, försöker följa Bloomberg Energy and Metals Equal-Weighted-index. Bloomberg Energy and Metals Equal-Weighted-index följer utvecklingen av råvaror inom energi-, ädelmetall- och industrimetallsektorerna. Alla råvaror som är representerade i indexet är likaviktade.
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,30 % p.a. Amundi Bloomberg Equal-weight Commodity ex-Agriculture UCITSETFAccär den enda ETF som följer Bloomberg Energy and Metals Equal-Weighted-index. ETFen replikerar resultatet för det underliggande indexet syntetiskt med en swap.
Amundi Bloomberg Equal-weight Commodity ex-Agriculture UCITSETFAccär en mycket stor ETF med tillgångar på 1 173 miljoner euro under förvaltning. ETF lanserades den 26 januari 2006 och har sin hemvist i Luxemburg.
Investeringsmål
Amundi Bloomberg Equal-weight Commodity ex-Agriculture UCITSETFAcc (”delfonden”) är en UCITS-kompatibel börshandlad fond som syftar till att spåra både den uppåtgående och nedåtgående utvecklingen av Bloomberg Energy & Metals Equal-Weighted Total Return Index ( ”Indexet”) uttryckt i US-dollar och omräknat i euro, representativt för råvarumarknaden och mer specifikt av energi-, basmetall- och ädelmetallmarknaderna, samtidigt som volatiliteten i skillnaden mellan delfondens avkastning och indexets avkastning (”spårningsfelet”) minimeras.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.