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Short sugar and coffee

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Short sugar and coffee The abolition of the sugar production quota in Europe next October will weigh on global prices.

ETF Securities Commodity Research Short sugar and coffee

Highlights

  • Speculative positioning in both sugar and coffee appear over-extended.
  • Brazil’s sugar production has risen and a healthy monsoon in India paves the way for a partial recovery in cane production.
  • The abolition of the sugar production quota in Europe next October will weigh on global prices.
  • Brazilian Arabica coffee output hit an all-time high in 2016, but prices rose as a result of Brazilian Real appreciation.
  • With La Niña potentially back on the cards and weather in Brazil remaining favourable, the next season’s Arabica crop may surprise on the upside.

Sugar rally to run out of steam

Sugar has gained over 80% since February 2016 as the market is expected to have entered a second consecutive year of a production deficit. Prices are now trading at a 5-year high.

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The futures market has become very bullish. Net long positioning in the futures market hit an all-time high a few weeks ago and remains more than 2 standard deviations above its 5-year historic average.

We believe that this optimism is overdone. Sugar production in Brazil, which produces close to 25% of global output, is running close to 20% higher than last year. While there is some fear that the season could be cut short, we believe that higher prices will encourage mills to continue production. Indeed, the cane harvest, which is close to 70% complete, is also running 10% ahead of last year. Moreover, with sugar prices this high and weakness in oil prices, more cane could be diverted to sugar production over ethanol production.

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India, the second largest producer of sugar, has received normal levels of rain this monsoon in contrast to the previous year’s failed monsoon. Reservoir levels have filled to around 75% as of October 20th, which is exactly in line with the 10-year average for this time of the year (and 128% of the corresponding period last year). Reservoir levels in the key cane producing areas was even higher. With most cane in India being irrigated, availability of reservoir water will be important for the following season.

EU to scrap sugar beet production quota

The EU is set to abolish its sugar beet production quota in October 2017. While the ICE Sugar No. 11 futures contract is based on the delivery of raw cane sugar, the greater availability of a close substitute could impact its price. Although the EU will eliminate quotas on production of sugar beet, it is not set to change tariffs on the import of raw cane sugar. Refiners in the EU are therefore more likely to use domestic beet for sugar production. While this is more of a concern for next year, prices of raw cane sugar could begin to weaken in advance.

Arabica price rises despite Brazilian production increase

Arabica coffee prices have risen close to 40% since January and speculative positioning is over 1 standard deviation above historic average.

Brazil dominates Arabica coffee production and has a significant influence on the price of the commodity.

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2016 Arabica coffee output from Brazil was the highest on record despite the fears that El Niño would hamper production. The Arabica harvest in Brazil was largely complete in September.

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As the chart above indicates, coffee output in Brazil goes through biennial cycles: production rises in one year and falls in the next. The 2016 coffee crop in Brazil was a high year in the biennial cycle and 2017 will be a low year. Some of the recent price gains may reflect that we are about to enter a cyclical low year, but we caution that the pattern does not always hold (for example between 2012 and 2013).

We believe that more of the gains were driven by an appreciating Brazilian Real. The Real appreciated on the back of an impeachment of the Brazilian President. Barring any positive economic shock, we believe that most of the positive news for the Real is priced-in.

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Potential for favourable weather

Weather conditions may have turned favourable for production in Brazil. Currently rain is progressing well in the south east of Brazil (where close to 90% of its Arabica is grown). That is important during the critical ‘flowering’ process. The amount of flowering determines how much coffee cherries will develop on each coffee bush.

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Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

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Microsoft considers bitcoin, UBS launches tokenized fund, and MicroStrategy will buy $42B in BTC

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Crypto markets faced a volatile week as key macroeconomic events approached, with the upcoming US presidential election and anticipated Fed rate decision fueling uncertainty in risk assets. Bitcoin (BTC) rose 1.7%, ether (ETH) declined 1%, Solana (SOL) fell 8.2%, and the Nasdaq Crypto IndexTM (NCITM) was down 0.5%.

Crypto markets faced a volatile week as key macroeconomic events approached, with the upcoming US presidential election and anticipated Fed rate decision fueling uncertainty in risk assets. Bitcoin (BTC) rose 1.7%, ether (ETH) declined 1%, Solana (SOL) fell 8.2%, and the Nasdaq Crypto IndexTM (NCITM) was down 0.5%.


Microsoft to consider bitcoin investment starting December

According to a new SEC filing, Microsoft is considering the possibility of investing in Bitcoin as a hedge strategy against inflation despite opposition from its Board of Directors. This move, by one of the world’s largest companies, would mark a significant step in institutional adoption for Bitcoin.

MicroStrategy discloses plans to buy $42B of BTC

The firm announced bold plans to raise $42 billion over the next three years to acquire more bitcoin. This new wave of capital will be split equally, with $21 billion from equity issuance and $21 billion from debt offerings, in a project called the ”21/21” plan. This move, led by founder Michael Saylor, underscores bitcoin’s potential as a valuable hedge against inflation and highlights its appeal as a strategic investment option.

UBS launches its first tokenized fund on Ethereum

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Altcoins struggle as elections loom

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The fourth quarter got off to a strong start, with bitcoin (BTC) bumping up against its all-time high late in the month and the Nasdaq Crypto Index™ (NCI™) returning 7.2%.

The fourth quarter got off to a strong start, with bitcoin (BTC) bumping up against its all-time high late in the month and the Nasdaq Crypto Index™ (NCI™) returning 7.2%.

Many crypto assets, however, struggled in October as the US elections and other uncertainties cast a shadow over bullish sentiment. Our CIO, Samir Kerbage, wrote about how the November 5th elections might impact investors and also joined a webinar with the CEO of The Digital Chamber to cover this topic in more depth. You can watch a replay of the webinar here.

As always, we are greatly appreciative of your trust in us and are here to answer any questions you may have.

  • Your Partners at Hashdex

Market Review

October is typically a favorable month for crypto assets, particularly bitcoin (BTC). For this reason, the month is often referred to as “Uptober.” This year was no different: the Nasdaq Crypto Index™ (NCI™) posted a 7.2% gain, despite slight declines in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 stock indices. However, unlike September, the vast majority of altcoins did not have a positive month.

In the first ten days of the month, the NCI™ gave back its gains from September. All NCI™ constituents recorded declines, except for Uniswap, which announced plans to develop its own layer two network on Ethereum. From then on, a strong recovery began, particularly for Bitcoin and Solana, which were up double digits by the 29th. This rally coincided with the sharp increase in Trump’s odds in election betting markets, and brought Bitcoin close to its all-time high. In the last two days of the month, crypto assets retreated, following the strong pessimism that overtook traditional markets.

Among NCI™ constituents, the positive highlights were Bitcoin and Solana, with gains of 10.6% and 9.0%, respectively. On the downside, Ripple dropped 18.6% due to the SEC lawsuit, while MATIC fell more than 20%, apparently due to migration to a new token called POL.

Among CF Benchmarks’ sectoral indices, the smallest drop was in the Smart Contract Platforms Index, mitigated by the performance of its main constituent, Solana. A similar effect was seen in the Digital Culture index, which dropped 7.6%, despite its largest constituent, SuperVerse, rising more than 20%. The Decentralized Finance (DeFi) index declined by 8.6%, with only Uniswap showing gains among its constituents. The Vinter Hashdex Risk Parity Momentum Index saw a small drop of 0.6%, heavily influenced by the sharp losses in Ripple and Near. In all five indices, the largest asset posted gains, but most other constituents did not.

In the near future, the US election results could serve as a trigger for a new all-time high in Bitcoin, as well as a recovery for smaller assets that are lagging this year. We remain optimistic about the development of the crypto asset class over the medium and long term.

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Valour introducerar världens första Physical Yield Bearing Bitcoin (1VBS) ETP i samarbete med Core Foundation, för tyska investerare på Xetra

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Valour Digital Securities Limited ("Valour"), en ledande emittent av börshandlade produkter ("ETPs") som ger förenklad tillgång till digitala tillgångar, har introducerat en ny fysiskt stödd, högavkastande Bitcoin ("BTC") ETP för tyska investerare i samarbete med Core Foundation, en organisation dedikerad till utvecklingen av Core blockchain-nätverket ("Core Chain"). Detta tillägg till Valours portfölj på Xetra erbjuder ett nytt, fysiskt backat alternativ vid sidan av det avkastningsfokuserade certifikatet som lanserades tidigare i år, för att möta olika investerares behov.

Valour Digital Securities Limited (”Valour”), en ledande emittent av börshandlade produkter (”ETPs”) som ger förenklad tillgång till digitala tillgångar, har introducerat en ny fysiskt stödd, högavkastande Bitcoin (”BTC”) ETP för tyska investerare i samarbete med Core Foundation, en organisation dedikerad till utvecklingen av Core blockchain-nätverket (”Core Chain”). Detta tillägg till Valours portfölj på Xetra erbjuder ett nytt, fysiskt backat alternativ vid sidan av det avkastningsfokuserade certifikatet som lanserades tidigare i år, för att möta olika investerares behov.

ETP ger tyska investerare exponering mot Bitcoin med en initial fast avkastning på 1,40 % (årligt) på Xetra premiumbörsen.

”Denna nya insats-ETP representerar en betydande möjlighet för investerare. 1VBS investerar inte bara världens starkaste kryptovaluta utan genererar också passiva intäkter genom en innovativ insatsmekanism. Denna dubbla fördel förbättrar en investerares investeringsstrategi samtidigt som den förenklar processen och gör det möjligt att tjäna belöningar utan den tekniska komplexiteten med att hantera underliggande tillgångar och insatsprocesser. Det är ett övertygande alternativ för välinformerade investerare som vill växa sina portföljer i en reglerad miljö.”, säger Elaine Buehler, produktchef på Valour.

Handel med 1Valour Bitcoin Physical Staking (1VBS) ETP (ISIN: GB00BRBV3124) började den 1 november 2024, med en förvaltningsavgift på 0,9 %.

‍”Vi är glada över att ge tyska investerare en ny, fysiskt stödd, avkastningsbärande Bitcoin ETPXetra, som erbjuder säker och förenklad tillgång till Bitcoins tillväxtpotential med en attraktiv initial fast avkastning på 1,40 %”, säger Olivier Roussy Newton, VD för DeFi Technologies. ”Detta partnerskap med Core Foundation understryker vårt engagemang för att utveckla pålitliga, institutionellt anpassade digitala tillgångslösningar. Genom att upprätthålla full förvaringskontroll inom ett kompatibelt ramverk gör vi det möjligt för investerare att dra nytta av Bitcoin-insats med den säkerhet och förtroende de förväntar sig av reglerade finansiella produkter.”

Core chain: Förbättra säkerhet och avkastning

Core blockchain-nätverket, en Bitcoin-driven lager-ett blockkedja som är kompatibel med Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) smarta kontrakt, stöder 1Valour Bitcoin Physical Staking (1VBS). Genom att utnyttja 50 % av Bitcoin-mining-hashkraften förbättrar Core Chain säkerheten i utbyte mot att låsa upp Bitcoin-verktyg och belöningar, vilket gör den till den mest Bitcoin-anpassade EVM-blockkedjan, med funktioner inklusive BTCfi och Bitcoin-insats.

1Valour Bitcoin Physical Staking (1VBS) förenklar Bitcoin-investeringar, vilket gör det säkert och tillgängligt för investerare som söker Bitcoins tillväxtpotential. Avkastningen krediteras varje produkts Digital Asset-rättigheter och återspeglas i Net Asset Value (NAV) dagligen.

Avkastningsgenerering och frihetsberövande säkerhet

1Valour Bitcoin Physical Staking (1VBS) ETP genererar avkastning genom att delegera Bitcoins till en Core Chain-validator genom icke-förvarsbaserad, infödd Bitcoin-insats. Insatsbelöningar, mottagna som CORE-tokens i en separat plånbok, konverteras till Bitcoins och läggs till ETPens NAV och egen plånbok dagligen. De underliggande tillgångarna i ETP finns alltid kvar i Bitcoins. Core Chain, en säker och skalbar lager-ett-blockkedja som drivs av Bitcoin, stöds av en unik ”Satoshi Plus”-konsensusmekanism som gör det möjligt för Bitcoin-gruvarbetare att delegera Proof of Work (”DPoW”) till Core-validerare och därigenom utveckla potentialen för Bitcoin -stödda decentraliserade applikationer.

Under hela insatsprocessen behåller Valor full frihetsberövande kontroll, vilket säkerställer säkerhet och efterlevnad. Bitcoins satsas säkert genom en ”insatstransaktion”, en infödd Bitcoin-transaktionstyp med en kortvarig låsningsperiod, inklusive insatsdetaljer som Core Validator och belöningsadress. Under lockupen kan de underliggande Bitcoins inte överföras eller skäras ned, och de förblir under Valours förvarskontroll med en reglerad depåman hela tiden.

Om Valour

Valour Inc. och Valor Digital Securities Limited (tillsammans, ”Valour”) utfärdar börshandlade produkter (”ETPs”) som gör det möjligt för privatpersoner och institutionella investerare att få tillgång till digitala tillgångar på ett enkelt och säkert sätt via sina traditionella bankkonton. Valour är en del av kapitalförvaltningsverksamheten inom DeFi Technologies Inc. (CBOE CA: DEFI) (GR: R9B) (OTC: DEFTF).

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