Sell the rumour buy the fact

Commodity ETP Weekly – Sell the rumour buy the fact

•  Inflows into energy ETPs persist for the 4th consecutive week despite OPEC maintaining status quo.
•  Gold ETPs suffer the 3rd consecutive week of outflows of US$58.6mn.
•  Flows into copper ETPs rebound after top Chinese smelters agree to cut back on supply. 

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Inflows into energy ETPs persist for the 4th consecutive week despite OPEC maintaining status quo. Energy ETPs recorded net inflows of US$39.3mn, driven largely by WTI crude oil ETPs and natural gas ETPs. As predicted hopes pinned on the OPEC meeting in Vienna this week disappointed investors as they stayed pat on maintaining current production levels despite the ongoing supply glut. The lack of co-operation from non-OPEC members, namely Russia ruling out cuts in supply at this stage, gave OPEC an alibi to abandon their production target. The market reacted negatively to the news with Brent crude oil closing at a new multi-year low US$42.5mn barrels a day this week.

Gold ETPs suffer the 3rd consecutive week of outflows of US$58.6mn. Gold rose 2.6% on Friday after the US dollar (DXY) depreciated by 2.4% on Thursday following the ECB’s disappointing policy moves. Most of the price moves came on Friday following a stellar jobs report from the US, which led the market to believe that a December 16th Fed hike is now a ‘done-deal’. As we have highlighted, during previous Fed rate hikes, the US Dollar often sells off and gold rises (contrary to popular perception), as markets “buy on the rumour and sell on the fact”. The unexpected rise in the labour force participation and upward revisions to the last month’s stellar print in non-farm payrolls made the 2015 US rate hike a near reality. The ECB’s fresh stimulus measures unveiled on Thursday fell short of investor’s expectations causing the overcrowded short euro trade to unwind. We suspect that an overcrowded short-gold trade has also fallen away, although we will have to wait for Friday’s weekly release of CFTC data for confirmation.

Record low prices drive bargain hunters into precious metal baskets. We received US$7.8mn in ETFS precious metals trust, marking its highest level since 2014. Despite robust US vehicle sales, currently at a 10 year high, the sell-off in palladium known for their use in gasoline based catalytic converters deepened contributing to outflows of US$5.4mn from palladium ETPs.

ETFs Copper (COPA) received US$5.1mn marking an 8-week high. The top 10 Chinese smelters added to supply woes after agreeing to cut production by 350,000 tons equivalent to 1.5% of last year’s global copper production raising hopes for a rebound in copper prices that are down 27.7% for the year.

Key events to watch this week. The Bank of England, Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Swiss National Bank are expected maintain the status quo in their respective policy meetings this week, although may offer some colour on their next moves. A raft of Chinese data ranging including industrial production, loan growth, trade and inflation will give a gauge for how the world’s largest consumer of commodities is faring.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

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