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Så här går börsen i dag 20161111

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Så här går börsen i dag 20161111 är en analys som kommer från Axiers analysarkiv och skrevs den 11/11-2016. Analyserna i arkivet är tillgängliga för Axiers betalande prenumeranter.

Så här går börsen i dag 20161111 är en analys som kommer från Axiers analysarkiv och skrevs den 11/11-2016. Analyserna i arkivet är tillgängliga för Axiers betalande prenumeranter.

Så här går börsen i dag 20161111 Våra OMX-analyser kan fungera som ett av flera beslutsstöd för den som handlar med börshandlade fonder, ETFer, som följer Stockholmsbörsens index, till exempel XACT OMX eller SpotR, nedan finner Ni Så här går börsen i dag 20161111. Vill Du också läsa dem varje dag? Anmäl Dig för en provprenumeration på Axiers hemsida.

Anmäl Dig här för att prova Axier dagliga tekniska analyser

OMXS30 Årshögsta på Stockholmsbörsen

OMXS 30 fortsatte sin uppgång under torsdagen, där index fortsatte till 1 479, som högst under dagen. Motståndet vid 1 479-1 483 representeras av 50-relationen av hela nedgången från 1720 den 27 april 2015 till botten den 27 juni vid 1 241. Rent matematiskt blir 50-realtionen 1 480 och närmare kan man inte komma än torsdagens 1 479,3. Det lutar därmed åt att vi får en tvekande utveckling under fredagen innan vi kan inrikta oss på en fortsättning uppåt. Det krävs en stängningskurs på 1 485 eller högre för att vi ska lita på att ett genombrott är fullbordat.
Med ett genombrott av detta motstånd ligger 1 508 och 1 548 framför oss för att visa oss att de är med som motstånd i uppgången. 1 548 är det allra viktigaste nivå, då den står för 62-realtionen av den långa nedgången. Men samtidigt vet vi att denna typ av vågor vi är inne är lynniga och överraskande till sin karaktär. Det ger oss alternativ på en fortsättning till ännu högre nivåer på sikt men det är inget vi räknar med utan det kommer att avgöras vid 1 548.

Vi behåller vår positiva syn så länge index är i en stigande trend och visar att de månadsbaserade tekniska indikatorerna också vill uppåt. Med dessa i bagaget sedan i somras kan vi inte annat än se alla rekyler som intensiva och tillfälliga. Mycket troligt att detta mönster fortsätter, då det ligger i den aktuella vägen sedan midsommar och fram till första kvartalet 2017.

Lägger vi sedan till tiden kan vi konstatera att det i dag är 9 månader sedan index bottnade på 1 247 den 11 februari. Det ger oss alla anledning att vara vaksamma på en reaktion nedåt inom kort. Tiden har även en rytm från den 14 mars i år och det är nu 8 månader sedan den toppen vid 1 432 sattes då. Det ger oss inledningen på nästa vecka som en reaktionspunkt för en hel del aktier och även index. Var index landar då finns det flera alternativ till, där bland annat 240-243 punkter över 1 247 är ett alternativ. Även 48 punkter över 1 432 finns med i korgen av möjligheter.

Dollarn har varit stigande sedan försommaren och det finns mycket mer att hämta om vi ser det hela på några års sikt.

Stochastic
Lång sikt: Månadsstochastic 63,4 och 48,7 stigande
Medellång sikt: Veckostochastic 74,8 och 80,5 fallande
Kort sikt: Dagsstochastic 68,5 och 49,0 stigande

Tidscykler på börsen
Under denna rubrik kommer vi i fortsättningen att lägga ut olika långa så såväl som korta tidscykler som rullar på börsen. Intresset för dessa rytmer har ökat under årens lopp, vilket vi framförallt märker på våra kurser i Tidscykelanalys.
Den tunga rytmen på 7,5 år är alltid aktiv på börsen och då speciellt i slutet av rytmen. Nu är detta en mycket lång cykel, som var aktiv i oktober 2007. Den tryckte ned index med kraft under 1,5 år. Lägger vi på 7,5 år på oktober 2007 hamnar vi på våren 2015. Det var denna topp som levererade indextoppen 1 720 den 27 april 2015 och sedan pressade ned index och framförallt många enskilda aktier med kraft. Nu är denna cykel aktiv igen först inför hösten 2022 men den ger effekter på börsen även i mellantiden. Tydligast är den om vi går tillbaka till varje avgörande topp eller lågpunkt genom börshistorien.

Nedan lägger vi löpande in alla korta cykler på mellan 30 dagar till 630 dagar eller som vi hellre uttrycker det: 1 månad till 21 månader.

Bland de intressanta rytmer som nu är aktuella är den på 18 månader från april månad. Vi har många aktier som levererade toppar under april och då i första hand under perioden 14 april till 30 april. Det är dessa som levererat sina toppar bland annat den 24-25 oktober och även den 26-28 oktober. I och med att vi tidsmässigt jobbar med 1,5 år =18 månader = 78 veckor = 540 grader = 547 dagar har vi många samband som faller på plats under senare delen av oktober och ger oss en nedgång/rekyl för de berörda aktierna och index.

Den andra kortare rytm som är aktiv nu i november är den på 9 månader. Det handlar om botten för många aktier och index den 11 februari -16. Nu i november är det dags att bevaka denna rytm, när vi går in i mitten av november. De aktier som stigit kraftigt under dessa 9 månader är mest intressanta att bevaka och kombinera denna rytm med andra längre rytmer för att få ihop reaktionspunkter.

Rullande korta cykler med reaktionsdagar

Dessa dagar kommer att korrigeras löpande vartefter vi får ny information från marknaden Vi följer i fortsättningen den rytm som började den 9 mars 2009. Den sammanfaller i stort med den andra rytm som har sitt ursprung från toppen den 13 juli 2007. Alla reaktionsdagar kommer från Gann Hjulet och den kunskap som ligger bakom detta.

Beräknade reaktionsdagar för OMXS 30 index: 15 november, 27 november, 10 december

Rörelsefaktorn – Motstånd – Stöd

Aktuell rörelsefaktor för tid och pris = 38 Motstånd 1 470 och 1 508 Stöd 1432 och 1 395

Analytiker: Ingemar Carlsson

Kursdata: Stockletter.se

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From digital asset to safe haven: Why is Bitcoin acting like gold?

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Bitcoin’s price has taken a different path from U.S. stocks over the past weeks. While major indexes such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have experienced declines, Bitcoin has risen to its highest levels in recent months, positioning itself as a safe haven, similar to gold. Understand how Bitcoin and gold have been synced for some time and what the correlation might look like in the future.

Bitcoin’s price has taken a different path from U.S. stocks over the past weeks. While major indexes such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have experienced declines, Bitcoin has risen to its highest levels in recent months, positioning itself as a safe haven, similar to gold. Understand how Bitcoin and gold have been synced for some time and what the correlation might look like in the future.

Ethereum’s big reboot: Why investors should be excited

Ethereum is making headlines due to a potential change in its core software, the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), that operates across thousands of computers, enabling Ethereum to execute smart contracts and securely track transactions. However, Ethereum’s co-founder, Vitalik Buterin, has suggested replacing the EVM with a new system called RISC-V. Discover why the change is necessary and its potential impact on investors.

Thousands of altcoins, but no altcoin season: What comes next?

Over the past year, the crypto market has entered a new era. Bitcoin hit new all-time highs, outperforming other cryptocurrencies and decoupling from the stock market. Unlike previous cycles, the expected “altcoin season” did not occur, with Bitcoin remaining strong and money not flowing into other cryptocurrencies or altcoins. So, the big question is: Has altcoin season run its course?

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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WELC ETF ger exponering mot företag inom sällanköpsvaror

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Amundi S&P Global Consumer Discretionary ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) (WELC ETF) med ISIN IE00061J0RC6, strävar efter att spåra S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Consumer Discretionary index. Det S&P-utvecklade ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Consumer Discretionary-indexet spårar stora och medelstora företag från den diskretionära konsumentsektorn. ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning) beaktas vid valet av värdepapper.

Amundi S&P Global Consumer Discretionary ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) (WELC ETF) med ISIN IE00061J0RC6, strävar efter att spåra S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Consumer Discretionary index. Det S&P-utvecklade ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Consumer Discretionary-indexet spårar stora och medelstora företag från den diskretionära konsumentsektorn. ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning) beaktas vid valet av värdepapper.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,18% p.a.. Amundi S&P Global Consumer Discretionary ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) är den billigaste ETF som följer S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Consumer Discretionary index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (Årligen).

Amundi S&P Global Consumer Discretionary ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) är en mycket liten ETF med 5 miljoner euro förvaltade tillgångar. Denna ETF lanserades den 20 september 2022 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Investeringsmål

AMUNDI S&P GLOBAL CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ESG UCITS ETF DR – EUR (D) försöker replikera, så nära som möjligt, resultatet för S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Consumer Discretionary Index (Netto Total Return Index). Denna ETF har exponering mot stora och medelstora företag i utvecklade länder. Den innehåller uteslutningskriterier för tobak, kontroversiella vapen, civila och militära handeldvapen, termiskt kol, olja och gas (inkl. Arctic Oil & Gas), oljesand, skiffergas. Den är också utformad för att välja ut och omvikta företag för att tillsammans förbättra hållbarhet och ESG-profiler, uppfylla miljömål och minska koldioxidavtrycket.

Handla WELC ETF

Amundi S&P Global Consumer Discretionary ESG UCITS ETF DR EUR (D) (WELC ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel  Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEURWELC
XETRAUSDWEL2
XETRAEURWELC

Största innehav

Denna fond använder fysisk replikering för att spåra indexets prestanda.

NamnValutaVikt %Sektor
AMAZON.COM INCUSD18.89 %Sällanköpsvaror
TESLA INCUSD13.29 %Sällanköpsvaror
HOME DEPOT INCUSD5.75 %Sällanköpsvaror
LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUIEUR5.44 %Sällanköpsvaror
TOYOTA MOTOR CORPJPY4.58 %Sällanköpsvaror
MCDONALD S CORP COM NPVUSD2.63 %Sällanköpsvaror
LOWE S COS INC COM US 0.50USD2.38 %Sällanköpsvaror
SONY GROUP CORP (JT)JPY2.25 %Sällanköpsvaror
BOOKING HOLDINGS INCUSD2.02 %Sällanköpsvaror
TJX COMPANIES INCUSD1.89 %Sällanköpsvaror

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Introduction to Celestia

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To understand Celestia’s value and its role in the ecosystem, it's helpful to first understand how traditional blockchain systems are structured.

To understand Celestia’s value and its role in the ecosystem, it’s helpful to first understand how traditional blockchain systems are structured.

Most blockchains, like Ethereum or Bitcoin, are monolithic which means they perform all major functions (consensus, data availability, and execution) on a single layer. This design ensures security but according to new modular networks, limits scalability and flexibility.

The modular blockchain thesis, which Celestia is leading, proposes separation of layers and respective responsibilities in the network. Instead of having one network and its validators perform all of its functions, it may be better to have specialized layers:

• Consensus Layer: Ensures that all nodes agree on the order of transactions.

Data Availability Layer: Ensures transaction data is accessible to all participants.

• Execution Layer: Processes the actual logic and computation of smart contracts.

By unbundling these components, developers can build more efficient, flexible systems that scale far beyond what monolithic blockchains can support. Not all applications need similar levels of security and not all applications need to scale up to millions of transactions. Additionally, one application might be scaling beyond the capabilities of its host network, severely effecting the available data throughput of other applications. This limits developers to the monolithic technology stack provided by a virtual machine such as Ethereum’ EVM.

The Issue of Data Availability

One of the most misunderstood yet crucial components of any blockchain is data availability. In simple terms, it ensures that the data behind each block is fully accessible and verifiable by all participants in the network. Another way to describe it is as the confidence a user can have that the data required to verify a block is really available to all network participants. Data availability is therefore important to all stakeholders of the blockchain ecosystem.

If a block producer withholds data, then nodes cannot verify the block, which leads to potential censorship or fraud.

Traditionally, a blockchain network can offer data availability with the following mechanisms:

• Full Replication: Every node stores the entire blockchain and verifies all data. Secure but not quite scalable.

• Sharding: Breaks the blockchain into smaller pieces (shards), spreading data across nodes. Scalable but highly complex to implement.

• Committee-Based Models: Small groups of nodes are trusted to verify data availability. Efficient, but less decentralized.

Celestia takes a completely different approach using a novel method called Data Availability Sampling (DAS). Instead of requiring every node to download all data, DAS allows lightweight nodes to randomly sample small chunks of a block. If enough pieces are retrievable, the node can confidently assume the full block is available. This slashes resource requirements while maintaining security and decentralization.

Why Data Availability Matters

Data availability might sound like a nerdy technical term, but it’s one of the most important yet one of less invisible parts of how blockchains work.

Let’s say you’re using a crypto app to trade tokens, store art, or move money. Every time you do something, that action (also referred to as a transaction) needs to be recorded and shared with the rest of the network so everyone agrees it happened. If that data disappears or can’t be verified, the whole system becomes untrustworthy. You might think your tokens moved but if no one else can see that record or a different version of that record, it’s as if it never happened.

Here’s a real-life parallel: imagine a public scoreboard at a sports game. If the scorekeeper shows the score to only a few people and then hides the board, how can the rest of the crowd trust the result? Everyone needs to see the score to believe it’s fair. In crypto, data availability is what makes sure the scoreboard is always visible to all participants at any time.

How DAS Changes the Game

Traditionally, ensuring data availability meant every node had to download and verify the entire block of data for any purpose related to particular data inside the block, like reading a whole newspaper just to check one article. Ethereum and most competing monolithic layer-1’s operate this way. It works, but it’s expensive, slow, and becomes less practical as blockchains scale in terms of data throughput required by its Dapps therefore limiting the types of applications that developers can build.

Celestia’s Data Availability Sampling (DAS) is a breakthrough that lets even simple devices (like smartphones) verify that a block’s data is available—by checking just a few random pieces. If enough pieces are found and correct, the network can be confident the full block is truly there and correct.

This innovation means:

• Light clients can safely participate in the network without downloading everything.

• Rollups and app-chains can post their data to Celestia with minimal overhead.

• Scalability skyrockets without sacrificing decentralization.

Celestia’s Role in Scaling Applications

Celestia is the first blockchain designed specifically to be a modular data availability layer. That means it doesn’t execute smart contracts or handle transactions directly, instead, it provides a foundation for others to build new networks, also referred to as rollups.

Developers can launch rollups or full execution environments, and use Celestia to handle the consensus and data availability side. This unlocks several key benefits:

• Massive scalability: Apps can scale independently from each other.

• Customization: Developers choose their own virtual machines, consensus mechanism and execution logic.

• Decentralization: Thanks to DAS, even small devices can validate the system.

This approach flips the script on how we think about launching and scaling blockchains. Instead of competing for space on a monolithic chain, apps get their own chains, backed by Celestia’s secure and scalable data availability layer while giving developers full stack control over their applications.

Celestia Enables Scalability and Offers Full-Stack Control

Using the restaurant example from Sui vs Aptos. Imagine a big, busy restaurant where the chefs, waiters, and cashiers all work in the same small kitchen. It gets crowded, orders take forever, and sometimes things go wrong while the backlog of orders keeps growing. That’s how traditional blockchains work, doing everything in one place.

Now imagine if the restaurant separated the jobs: the chefs cook in a big kitchen, waiters serve from a clean dining area, and the cashiers handle payments at the front desk. Everything runs smoother, faster, and the restaurant can grow in a environment that is less prone to congestion. That is what Celestia is doing for blockchains. Let’s say a small specialty restaurant opens up next door, leveraging Celestia’s register and order management system. That new restaurant can fully focus on delivering the best food and experience to customers, knowing that Celestia’s technology won’t be the limiting factor when scaling up their kitchen. The modularity that Celestia’s restaurant offers is allowing a lot of small scale restaurants to exist without the overhead of individual administrative work. It goes even a step further, Celestia allows you to just use it register while letting smaller restaurants pick their own kitchen (execution environment) and order management system (consensus layer).

In conclusion, Celestia is challenging the believe that blockchains should always be monolithic and blockchains need to offer the same technology stack to all developers on its chain. It is a significant leap forward in the crypto ecosystem and opens possibilities that were previously not feasible.

Diversify Crypto Exposure to Modular Blockchain Technology with the VanEck Celestia ETN

Key features of the VanEck Celestia ETN

• Celestia enables secure scaling of blockchain applications with modular technology.

• Fully-collateralized by TIA in cold-storage.

• Total return of TIA: Tracks the MarketVector™ Celestia VWAP Close Index (MVTIAV).

Why VanEck Crypto ETNs? Here’s why:

• With nearly 70 years in asset management and a strong track record in crypto, we bring deep industry knowledge and proven reliability.

• We combine traditional financial strengths with cutting-edge crypto innovation, backed by a CEO who truly believes in crypto’s future.

• We ensure clarity in our product structures and avoid high-risk or opaque practices, with assets fully backed by cryptocurrency in secure cold storage.

• Our assets are secured by a licensed European bank in Liechtenstein, providing top-tier compliance and security.

• We use the safest institutional custody setup available, prioritizing your security over cost savings.

Crypto is an asset class with high potential returns but investing in digital assets comes with great risk, why choose products that potentially introduce even more risks? Choose VanEck for a secure, transparent, and expertly managed crypto investment experience.

Main Risk Factors:

Investors should note that there is no direct ownership for the crypto assets, but a claim against Issuer to receive such assets.

• Complexity risk: The complexity of the project and its technological concepts make it challenging to assess its viability and valuation.

Adoption risk: Celestia introduces additional adoption risk as it is uncertain if the concept of modular blockchains will succeed.

Technology risk: Celestia introduces additional technology risk due to the technology being less mature and therefore could be more prone to bugs and exploits.

Regulatory Risk: market disruptions and governmental interventions may make digital assets illegal.

Risk of Losses and Volatility: The trading prices of many digital assets have experienced extreme volatility in recent periods and may continue to do so. There is a risk of total loss as no guarantee can be made regarding custody due to hacking risk, counterparty risk and market risk.

• Other risks specific to this ETN’s Digital Assets can also be found on the VanEck Crypto Academy.

This is not financial research but the opinion of the author of the article. We publish this information to inform and educate about recent market developments and technological updates, not to give any recommendation for certain products or projects. The selection of articles should therefore not be understood as financial advice or recommendation for any specific product and/or digital asset. We may occasionally include analysis of past market, network performance expectations and/or on-chain performance. Historical performance is not indicative for future returns.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

For informational and advertising purposes only.

This information originates from VanEck (Europe) GmbH, Kreuznacher Strasse 30, 60486 Frankfurt am Main, Deutschland and VanEck Switzerland AG, Genferstrasse 21, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland.

It is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice. VanEck (Europe) GmbH and its associated and affiliated companies (together “VanEck”) assume no liability with regards to any investment, divestment or retention decision taken by the investor on the basis of this information. Views and opinions expressed are current as of the date of this information and are subject to change with market conditions. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward looking statements, which do not reflect actual results. VanEck makes no representation or warranty, express or implied regarding the advisability of investing in securities or digital assets generally or in the product mentioned in this information (the “Product”) or the ability of the underlying Index to track the performance of the relevant digital assets market.

Investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal up to the entire invested amount and the extreme volatility that ETNs experience. You must read the prospectus and KID before investing, in order to fully understand the potential risks and rewards associated with the decision to invest in the Product. The approved Prospectus is available at www.vaneck.com. Please note that the approval of the prospectus should not be understood as an endorsement of the Products offered or admitted to trading on a regulated market.

The underlying Index is the exclusive property of MarketVector GmbH, which has contracted with CC Data Limited to maintain and calculate the Index. CC Data Limited uses its best efforts to ensure that the Index is calculated correctly. Irrespective of its obligations towards the MarketVector GmbH, CC Data Limited has no obligation to point out errors in the Index to third parties.

Investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal up to the entire invested amount and the extreme volatility that ETNs experience. You must read the prospectus and KID before investing, in order to fully understand the potential risks and rewards associated with the decision to invest in the Product. The approved Prospectus is available at www.vaneck.com. Please note that the approval of the prospectus should not be understood as an endorsement of the Products offered or admitted to trading on a regulated market.

Performance quoted represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results and which may be lower or higher than current performance.

Current performance may be lower or higher than average annual returns shown. Performance shows 12 month performance to the most recent Quarter end for each of the last 5yrs where available. E.g. ’1st year’ shows the most recent of these 12-month periods and ’2nd year’ shows the previous 12 month period and so on. Performance data is displayed in Base Currency terms, with net income reinvested, net of fees. Brokerage or transaction fees will apply. Investment return and the principal value of an investment will fluctuate. Notes may be worth more or less than their original cost when redeemed.

Index returns are not ETN returns and do not reflect any management fees or brokerage expenses. An index’s performance is not illustrative of the ETN’s performance. Investors cannot invest directly in the Index. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made.No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck.

© VanEck (Europe) GmbH / © VanEck Switzerland AG

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