Så här går börsen i dag 20150918 Denna analys kommer från Axiers analysarkiv och skrevs den 18/9-2015. Analyserna i arkivet är tillgängliga för Axiers betalande prenumeranter.
Våra OMX-analyser kan fungera som ett av flera beslutsstöd för den som handlar med börshandlade fonder, ETFer, som följer Stockholmsbörsens index, till exempel XACT OMX eller SpotR, nedan finner Ni Så här går börsen i dag 20150918.Vill Du också läsa dem varje dag? Anmäl Dig för en provprenumeration på Axiers hemsida.
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OMXS30 Kortsiktigt upp långsiktigt ned
OMXS30 startade dagen svagt uppåt och sedan rörde sig index i sidled under hela dagen där index stängde på 1486,46 vilket var en uppgång om 0,19%.
Vi kan i intradaydiagrammet se att index fortsatte att röra sig i sidled under gårdagen och trycker vid 50% motståndet. Troligen kommer vi se att index bryter uppåt och vi har 1496 men det är mer troligt att vi kommer att se 1510 eller 1523.
Tidsmässigt är det nu den 28 september +/- 1 tradingdagar som är viktiga att bevaka i ett lite större perspektiv.
Kortsiktigt i tid är det den 18-21 september och sedan den 23 september där vi kommer att se rörelseförändringar.
Fortsatt är det 1578 som är den gräns för att omvärdera det negativa scenariot.
I tid finns det en större vändningsperiod i slutet av september, början av oktober. Det är möjligt att vi kommer att se att index fortsätter att hålla sig uppe och att vi ser mer styrka fram till denna tidpunkt.
De amerikanska terminerna är just positiva där SP500 är +0,15%, Nasdaq är +0,18% samt Dow Jones är +0,17%. Det föreslår en svagt positiv inledning av dagen.
De Europeiska terminerna är positiva och är mellan +0,24-0,35%, vilket föreslår att vi kommer att se en svagt positiv öppning.
På den asiatiska marknaden är det mestadels positiva siffror men Nikkei 225 är -1,42% och Shanghai Composite är +0,40% och Hang Seng är +0,42%.
(Kortsiktig signal för terminshandel i OMX: Ingen just nu.)
McClellan Oscillator: steg och är nu i ett mellanläge där det finns utrymme både upp som ner.
McClellan Summations Index: är nu i en neutral position och säger på så sätt att vi skall vara försiktiga i båda riktningar och inte använda fullstora positioner.
Spread (skillnad mellan Nasdaq 100 och S & P 500) är dagsbaserat positiv och pekar uppåt. Veckospreaden är positiv men pekar i nedåt.
VIX fortsätter att falla tillbaka och är fortsatt på relativt låga nivåer men de finna mycket plats att falla tillbaka på om investerarna börjar att känna sig mer trygga.
Du kan få exponering mot OMXS30 med följande Mini Futures BEST:
Uppgång: B LONGOMX NA CBK med en hävstång på 9,0 och en finansieringsnivå på 1326,815 SEK
Nedgång: B SHRTOMX PJ CBKmed en hävstång på 9,1 och en finansieringsnivå på 1648,415 SEK
Slutsats: Kortsiktigt kommer index att fortsätta att stiga medan det långsiktigt fortsatt finns en risk för att det bli mer nedgång. Faller index under 1470 finns det en risk att vi kommer att se 1450 eller lägre.
Last week was monumental for Bitcoin and the broader crypto ecosystem, ushering in key regulatory and legislative developments in the US. These changes not only underscore a shifting attitude toward digital assets in the US but also lay the groundwork for greater clarity and legitimacy for crypto globally in the years to come. Following are the five reasons we think last week was such a defining moment for crypto assets and why we think the current environment is setting this asset class up for a remarkable 2025.
A paradigm shift at the SEC
One of the most significant signals of change came from US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Acting Chair Mark Uyeda, who announced the establishment of a Crypto Task Force led by Commissioner Hester Peirce, affectionately known as ”Crypto Mom” for her engagement in the digital asset space while at the SEC. The task force, along with the favorable views on digital assets from incoming chair Paul Atkins, reflects an important step toward ending the contentious practice of ”regulation by enforcement,” which has long stymied innovation for crypto entrepreneurs and limited opportunity for US investors.
The SEC’s subsequent decision to rescind Staff Accounting Bulletin (SAB) 121, which imposed restrictive accounting guidelines on banks wishing to custody crypto, further underscores the regulatory shift. Its repeal not only provides operational relief but also signals a more pragmatic approach to crypto oversight.
These regulatory moves reflect a broader recognition by US authorities of the need for a framework that fosters innovation while ensuring investor protection. They set the stage for a future where digital assets are more seamlessly integrated into the financial system.
New congressional leadership
Another pivotal development was the appointment of Senator Cynthia Lummis as chair of the newly created Subcommittee on Digital Assets. Lummis, a long-time advocate for Bitcoin and blockchain technology, is uniquely positioned to champion legislation that promotes innovation while addressing key concerns around market integrity and consumer protection.
Her leadership comes at a critical time, as Congress considers landmark legislation such as the Stablecoin Act and the Bitcoin Act. The Stablecoin Act, which could see approval this year, aims to establish clear guidelines for stablecoin issuance and use. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Act proposes an audacious goal: for the US government to accumulate 5% of bitcoin’s total supply. There are obstacles to this proposal, some of which I noted in August last year, but if enacted, this legislation could significantly impact Bitcoin’s global adoption and price trajectory.
A game-changing executive order
The White House also contributed to the week’s momentum with a new executive order aimed at shaping the future of digital assets in the US. A key aspect of this order is its rejection of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in favor of fostering stablecoin development. President Trump has been vocal about his preference for implementing a ”digital dollar” on top of open blockchain networks, a move that aligns with crypto’s decentralized ethos.
This executive order also signals the end of ”Operation Chokepoint,” an informal campaign that had effectively debanked parts of the crypto industry. By reaffirming the importance of open networks and stablecoins, the administration is providing a clear direction for the role digital assets could play in the US financial system.
Perhaps the most intriguing development is the proposal to establish a government stockpile of digital assets. While the term “stockpile” has been carefully chosen over “reserve” to avoid direct comparisons with traditional currency reserves, the implications are nonetheless profound. The working group tasked with studying this proposal has expanded its scope beyond bitcoin to include crypto assets more broadly.
While it’s too early to predict how or whether the stockpile will be established, the study represents a thoughtful approach to a high-stakes decision. It could mark the beginning of a global trend, with other nations potentially racing to stockpile crypto assets as part of their sovereign holdings, which we’ve already seen this week with the Czech central bank.
Steps toward a comprehensive regulatory framework
The week’s developments also highlight the ongoing evolution of regulatory characterization. US regulators are moving toward a more nuanced understanding of digital assets, which is essential for crafting effective policies. This trend was echoed in the revocation of SAB 121 and the growing momentum behind legislation like the Stablecoin Act. Additionally, the broader regulatory framework for market structure in digital assets, which could happen this year or next, will likely address issues ranging from trading practices to asset classification. These steps indicate a deliberate effort to integrate crypto into the financial system with precision and clarity.
The start of a geopolitical race to embrace crypto
These developments, particularly the possibility of a US crypto stockpile, also raises the stakes on the global stage. Sovereign states accumulating crypto assets could lead to a new form of economic competition, where digital assets play a central role in national strategy.
The US government’s interest in studying this proposal reflects an understanding of crypto’s growing significance in global finance. It also aligns with the nation’s broader goals of maintaining technological and economic leadership.
What’s next?
The developments of the past week are part of a broader trend of increasing institutional and governmental recognition of crypto’s potential. However, several key milestones remain on the horizon:
• Stablecoin Act Approval: This legislation, which could happen before the fourth quarter this year, will provide much-needed clarity for stablecoin issuers and users.
• Market Structure Framework: Expected by 2026, this framework will define the rules of engagement for trading and investing in digital assets.
• Bitcoin Act Progress: If the US government begins accumulating bitcoin, it could have profound implications for the asset’s supply dynamics and global adoption.
• Stockpile Study Results: The findings of the crypto stockpile working group could shape the long-term digital asset strategy in the US.
As these milestones approach, bitcoin and other crypto assets are likely to experience heightened volatility, but also greater legitimacy. Investors, policymakers, and innovators will continue to pay attention to these developments, as they could define the future of the global economy. While challenges remain, the direction is clear: crypto is moving from the fringes of finance to center stage. As these changes unfold, the crypto ecosystem is poised to evolve into a more robust and integral part of the global economy, presenting investors with attractive opportunities to get broad exposure to this emerging asset class.