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Risk of a sharp CNY rebound

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Risk of a sharp CNY rebound Trending CNY weakness is not a surprise alongside a softer economic backdrop, central bank stimulus and portfolio outflows.

Risk of a sharp CNY rebound

Summary

  • Trending CNY weakness is not a surprise alongside a softer economic backdrop, central bank stimulus and portfolio outflows.
  • Debt concerns are not a global systemic issue, as foreign debt accounts for only 6% of the overall total and has been on a declining trend as of late.
  • CNY weakness and portfolio outflows are likely to reverse if Chinese equities are included in key global emerging market benchmarks.

Three benchmarks

The intention of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), alongside further liberalisation of the currency, is to keep the valuation of the Renminbi ‘basically stable’ against a basket of global currencies. Risk of a sharp CNY rebound

Although the USD is the main currency that the market values the Chinese Renminbi (CNY) against, Chinese policymakers increasingly want to move the focus to a basket of currencies – the method they indicate they set the currency on a daily basis.

Officials state that the currency is allowed to deviate within a +/-2% band on a daily basis from the fixing rate which is partly determined by the closing value of the Renminbi on the prior trading day. Risk of a sharp CNY rebound

ETFS1

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In December 2015, the PBOC introduced the CFETS RMB Exchange Rate Index, to be more a representative valuation of the Chinese currency against its trading and investment partners. China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS) is the foreign exchange markets subsidiary of the PBOC. There are 13 currencies in the CFETS basket, with the weightings largely trade based.

The other baskets that are referenced by Chinese officials are the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket and the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) basket. The SDR is valued against the US Dollar, the Japanese Yen, the British Pound, the Euro and the Renminbi, while the BIS basket is valued against 40 different currencies. Regardless, the USD is the primary currency, with 26%, 42% and 18% weightings in the CFETS, SDR and BIS baskets respectively.

The recent onshore CNY weakness (against the USD) over the past two months doesn’t appear to be artificially distorted. Indeed, onshore traded Renminbi (CNY) moves in 2016 are in line with offshore traded Renminbi (CNH) movements. The gap between onshore and offshore markets that appeared during H2 2015 after the surprise CNY devaluation has all but disappeared, as the market becomes more comfortable with the more transparent CNY pricing.

No motivation for devaluation

If policymakers are devaluing the CNY the only motivation can be to boost trade. The benefits of currency weakness on trade is well documented. However, as the Chinese currency becomes more market-based, and most developed market central banks follow beggar-thy-neighbour stimulus to weaken local currencies, the gains to trade are likely be limited. Additionally with China sitting in the middle of many supply chains, the finished output to be exported could be more competitive as the currency depreciates. However, imported inputs to manufacturing would also be more expensive, limiting any strong benefits to devaluation from a trade perspective as well.

With so much focus and concern around China’s debt problems, the authorities are unlikely to want to exacerbate the problem by depreciating the currency, which would make the value of foreign debts larger in local currency terms. The fears are maybe overblown given that only 6% of China’s debts are denominated in foreign currency and are declining. However, given the nebulous benefits to trade from devaluation, increasing credit risks associated with devaluation (even though is small) does not appear worthwhile.

ETFS2

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There seems little motivation for policymakers to artificially weaken the Renminbi in the current environment.

Steady decline in FX reserves

ETFS3

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Currency weakness isn’t surprising for a country whose pace of growth is slowing, with a central bank in the process of cutting both the repo rate and the reserve requirement rate (RRR), and a government injecting other forms of stimulus. Calls for a stronger currency by foreign politicians are misplaced in such an environment.

Although the currency is officially managed against three benchmarks, the PBOC analyses its FX reserves in USD mainly. However, it has recently begun publishing foreign exchange reserves with the IMF’s SDR as the unit of account.

The PBOC is not actively devaluing the renminbi. Foreign exchange reserves are actually declining, a trend that could not occur if the PBOC were intervening in currency markets to devalue the local currency. Moreover, FX reserves have been in steady decline since mid 2014, after peaking at around US$4tn.

The recent weakness in the Renminbi has contributed to the trend decline in the outstanding level of foreign currency loans. If a loan is not hedged, a sustained decrease in the currency will lead to a greater debt burden. FX loans are likely to continue downward as the level of positive carry is expected to decline due to US rates increasing in coming years.

ETFS4

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June 14 deadline.

In addition to foreign debt, portfolio investment is critical to the direction of the CNY. Capital flows are likely to increasingly be a directional driver of the Chinese currency in the years ahead as liberalisation of the Renminbi gathers pace. Further currency weakness seems likely in the near term on this basis. Investment funds flowing out of China in Q1 2016, amounted to US$40.1bn, a 55% jump on a year earlier, according to the PBOC. In April, US$25bn of portfolio was withdrawn from Chinese assets, the 25th consecutive monthly outflows, according to the Institute of International Finance. Portfolio outflows can intensify as the decline in the CNY will have an adverse impact on foreign portfolio returns.

Nonetheless, the negative flows could abate quite quickly and even reverse in coming months. MSCI are expected to decide on June 14 whether to include Chinese A shares in its MSCI China Index (and consequently MSCI Emerging Markets Index). This is likely to prompt a lift of the CNY in the near-term as investment funds are redirected towards the country.

Liberalisation and beyond

Greater currency liberalisation is likely in the future, not only because of the greater scrutiny from the IMF (with the Renminbi now being in the SDR basket) but also as China seeks to gain greater interest in global commodity pricing dynamics. Currency transparency and flexibility are necessary to lure trading away from developed commodity trading platforms and encourage greater foreign participation on Chinese commodity exchanges. Although CNY weakness is warranted from an economic and portfolio flows perspective, the June 14 announcement of a potential inclusion of Chinese equities in key MSCI EM benchmarks could see recent CNY trends reversed. A greater degree of CNY volatility can also be expected alongside further liberalisation and transparency.

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”). The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.

This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

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EL4P ETF investerar i medellånga europeiska statsobligationer

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Deka iBoxx EUR Liquid Sovereign Diversified 7-10 UCITS ETF (EL4P ETF) investerar i statsobligationer med fokus på Europa. Obligationernas löptider är mellan 7-10 år. De underliggande obligationerna har Investment Grade-betyg. ETF:en har en valutaexponering i EUR. Ränteintäkterna (kuponger) i fonden delas ut till investerarna (kvartalsvis).

Deka iBoxx EUR Liquid Sovereign Diversified 7-10 UCITS ETF (EL4P ETF) investerar i statsobligationer med fokus på Europa. Obligationernas löptider är mellan 7-10 år. De underliggande obligationerna har Investment Grade-betyg. ETFen har en valutaexponering i EUR. Ränteintäkterna (kuponger) i fonden delas ut till investerarna (kvartalsvis).

Den totala kostnadskvoten uppgår till 0,15 % p.a. Fonden replikerar resultatet för det underliggande indexet genom att köpa alla indexbeståndsdelar (full replikering). Deka iBoxx EUR Liquid Sovereign Diversified 7-10 UCITS ETF är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 14 miljoner euro under förvaltning. ETFen är äldre än 5 år och har sin hemvist i Tyskland.

Mål

Fondens mål är att följa utvecklingen av iBoxx € Liquid Sovereign Diversified 7-10 Index (Prisindex). iBoxx EUR Liquid Sovereign Diversified-index är baserade uteslutande på obligationer som ingår i universum av iBoxx EUR-referensindex. För att säkerställa att endast lämpliga obligationer kommer in i de likvida indexen har ytterligare urvalskriterier lagts till: obligationstyp, tid till förfall och utestående belopp. Det maximala antalet obligationer i varje index är begränsat till 25 stycken.

Investeringsstrategi

Deka iBoxx EUR Liquid Sovereign Diversified 7-10 UCITS ETF strävar efter att spåra iBoxx® EUR Liquid Sovereigns Diversified 7-10-index. Indexet iBoxx® EUR Liquid Sovereigns Diversified 7-10 följer de 25 mest likvida euro-denominerade statsobligationerna utgivna av regeringar i euroområdet. Tid till mognad: 7-10 år. Maxvikt per land: 4 obligationer respektive 20 procent.

Handla EL4P ETF

Deka iBoxx EUR Liquid Sovereign Diversified 7-10 UCITS ETF (EL4P ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEUREL4P
Stuttgart Stock ExchangeEUREL4P
XETRAEUREL4P

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G20 summit in Rio: Lula enhances Brazil’s international reputation

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From 18 to 19 November 2024, Brazil will host the G20 summit in Rio for the first time as the focus of the world's most important platform for global economic cooperation.

From 18 to 19 November 2024, Brazil will host the G20 summit in Rio for the first time as the focus of the world’s most important platform for global economic cooperation.

The coalition, which includes the USA, China, India, the E U and, most recently, the African Union, represents the world’s most important economies, which, according to OECD figures, account for around 80 per cent of global gross domestic product, 75 per cent of world trade and two thirds of the world’s population.

Since Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) took up his third uninterrupted term of office at the beginning of 2023, he has spent a lot of time abroad to improve his country’s image in the world. His efforts could pay off. A recent Pew Research survey found that most Brazilian adults are optimistic about their country’s status as an international power.

In addition to the G20, Brazil is also set to host other high-profile events such as the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) and the BRICS summit (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) in 2025, while also seeking membership of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

In the almost three years since Brazil initiated its formal accession process for OECD membership, the country has achieved many milestones on the road to this goal. If successful, Brazil would be in a unique position to influence the increasing geopolitical and economic competition between industrialised and developing countries, as it is the only country to be represented in the BRICS, the G20 and the OECD simultaneously.

As the eighth largest economy in the world and the largest economy in Latin America, Brazil could be a strong link in the global discourse on key issues for the Global South (according to UN Trade and Development, the Global South essentially comprises Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia excluding Israel, Japan and South Korea, and Oceania excluding Australia and New Zealand).

These issues include, above all, the fight against hunger, poverty and inequality, sustainable development and the reform of global governance. If Brazil is able to achieve political and financial commitments to progress on priorities such as digital infrastructure, this could lead not only to an increase in Brazil’s GDP, but also to a narrowing of the economic and urban-rural divide and a reduction in gender inequality. Consider that the introduction of a relatively new instant money transfer platform operated by the central bank, known as Pix, has already promoted financial inclusion and increased access to banking services from around 70 per cent of the population to more than 84 per cent (source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace).

We expect that an OECD seal of approval for Brazil will also encourage global investors seeking the assurance of the Coalition’s high standards for the ease of doing business. A seat at the table would give Brazil a stronger voice in shaping best practices and global frameworks for rapidly evolving technology standards. Brazilian companies specialising in artificial intelligence and financial technology are already among the largest in South America.

As the largest oil producer in Latin America, resource-rich Brazil is a leader in the energy sector, as it is one of the ten largest oil producers in the world (according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Brazil produced 4 per cent of the world’s total oil production at the end of 2023). However, the country’s largest sector is finance, with a weighting of more than 36 per cent according to the MSCI Brazil Index.

Central bank in interest rate hike mode

High government spending continues to be a major problem. In our opinion, any reduction in this spending would give the country’s capital markets cause for optimism. Meanwhile, Brazil is an exception to the global trend of falling interest rates: In September, Brazil’s central bank raised interest rates to curb inflationary pressures. The market expects the Brazilian real to remain stable or appreciate slightly in the near future, partly due to falling US interest rates. We see this as a potential advantage for foreign investors in Brazil.

It is also encouraging to see that progress is being made on Brazil’s long-awaited VAT reform, which could further boost the private sector as efficiency gains from a simpler tax system would favour investment.

Growth in Brazil’s manufacturing and services sectors accelerated in September as output in both sectors increased, indicating strong growth in economic activity. In addition, the Brazilian market is currently trading at valuations that we consider favourable. Improved conditions in Brazil’s manufacturing sector have been driven by a resurgence in production, stronger job creation and a pick-up in sales growth, according to S&P Global. At the end of September, Brazil’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index was surpassed only by India, rising to 53.2 (from 50.4 in August; readings above 50 indicate expansion).

Chart 1: Brazilian Purchasing Managers’ Index

Source: FactSet, Markit Economics

Expectations are also high that Brazil will experience an economic boost in 2027, having won the historic bid to host the FIFA Women’s World Cup – a first not only for Brazil, but for the whole of South America.

Over the near term, we believe investors should stay attuned to the opportunities in Brazil and may find what we consider an attractive entry point into this large and diverse market.

Chart 2: The valuations of Latin American equities look favourable

Attractive valuations compared to industrialised countries, emerging markets and own history

Chart 3: Latin American equities offer high dividends

High dividend yield compared to industrialised countries, emerging markets and own history

From Dina Ting, Head of Global Index Portfolio Management at Franklin Templeton

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BlackRock introducerar ny ETF för att anpassa exponeringen mot amerikanska storbolag

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Den nya ETFen, iShares S&P 500 Top 20 UCITS ETF, ger en utökad granulär tillgång till amerikanska företag. De senaste årens ökande framträdande av megabolagsaktier understryker möjligheten för europeiska investerare att förbättra sättet att fånga tillväxten hos några av världens mest välkända företag. Idag tillkännagav BlackRock lanseringen av en ny ETF för att ge europeiska investerare en enkel lösning för att uttrycka mer detaljerade åsikter om de största företagen som är noterade i USA.

Den nya ETFen, iShares S&P 500 Top 20 UCITS ETF, ger en utökad granulär tillgång till amerikanska företag. De senaste årens ökande framträdande av megabolagsaktier understryker möjligheten för europeiska investerare att förbättra sättet att fånga tillväxten hos några av världens mest välkända företag. Idag tillkännagav BlackRock lanseringen av en ny ETF för att ge europeiska investerare en enkel lösning för att uttrycka mer detaljerade åsikter om de största företagen som är noterade i USA.

Den amerikanska kapitalmarknaden har genomgått en betydande omvandling under de senaste två decennierna, men det finns begränsade nya lösningar för att hjälpa investerare att bättre hantera sin marknadsvärdesexponering. År 2000 värderades hela den amerikanska aktiemarknaden till 15 biljoner dollar. Snabbspola fram till idag är de största åtta företagen bara värda 15 biljoner dollar. Ännu viktigare är att de 20 största företagen i S&P 500-indexet har bidragit med mer än två tredjedelar (68 %) av indexets avkastning under de senaste tre åren, vilket visar deras förmåga att driva överdimensionerad avkastning på aktiemarknaden.

Brett Pybus, chef för iShares EMEA Product Strategy sa: ”Nu är det dags för investerare att ompröva sin marknadsexponering. Med denna ETF kan europeiska investerare nu utnyttja kraften i tillväxt och innovation inom de största amerikanska företagen på ett riktat sätt. Prestationsspridningen inom S&P 500 har skapat ett behov av exakt exponering mot amerikanska aktier.”

Möjligheten att enkelt få tillgång till eller anpassa exponeringen för amerikanska börsvärden i en ETF är relevant för olika typer av investerare – inklusive förstagångsinvesterare, portföljbyggare, institutionella investerare och finansiella rådgivare.

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iShares S&P 500 Top 20 UCITS ETF  SP200.20%De 20 största amerikanska företag inom sektorer som teknik, konsumentvaror, kommunikation, hälsovård och finansiella tjänstesektorer

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