ETF Securities – Record inflows into robotic ETFs

Highlights

• Record inflows of US$56.3mn into robotic ETFs.
• Industrial metal ETPs saw four consecutive weeks of inflows.
• Crude oil ETP outflows of US$29.3mn followed a 3.3% oil price rally last week.

Record inflows of US$56.3mn into robotic ETFs. Inflows into robotic ETFs rose to US$56.3mn, the highest weekly flow since their inception. Inflows into cybersecurity ETFs rose to US$15.9mn, the highest since June 2017. Robust inflows into these ETFs track a broader trend of strong performance in technology stocks (the S&P 500® Information Technology Index has risen 5.1% year-to-date for example). However, the increased of utilisation of automation and growing concerns about software security have piqued interest in this sub-class of technology in particular.

Industrial metal ETPs saw four consecutive weeks of inflows. Inflows into long broad industrial metal ETPs amounted to US$22.5mn (a three week high) and inflows into long copper ETPs amounted to US$14.9mn (a six week high). Global Manufacturing Purchasing Indices (PMIs) rose to a seven-year high at the end of 2017. The PMI survey indicates that demand for industrial metals will be strong in 2018 with growth of output, new orders and employment reaching levels last achieved in early- 2011. Last week’s China custom’s import data revealed that 2017 imports of copper ore and concentrate rose to an all-time high.

Long crude oil ETPs outflows of US$29.3mn followed a 3.3% oil price rally last week. Oil ETPs saw their 19th consecutive week of outflows. Investors appear to be taking profit on the most recent oil price rally. Oil prices touched US$70/bbl last week, up from US$56/bbl a year ago. Oil prices have received a tail-wind from falling crude oil inventories in the US, increased geopolitical tensions (in particular in Iran) and strong compliance by OPEC countries with their deal to curb production. However, looking beyond the headlines we see that gasoline inventories have risen (indicating that inventories have simply shifted from crude to product).

Geopolitical issues tend to wax and wane and so we doubt that the geopolitical premium will be persistent. US production of oil is likely to rise to an all-time high in 2018. Lastly with prices currently so strong, the incentive for OPEC countries to end their deal prematurely in June has increased. Although momentum may push oil prices back above US$70/bbl, we don’t think prices are sustainable at that level if fundamentals re-assert themselves over the coming month.

USD ETP shorts rose to a five week high. Rumours that the China will curb its purchases of US Treasuries (although never substantiated) spooked the market and led to a 1.5% depreciation in the dollar basket (DXY). There were US$6.6mn inflows into short US Dollar ETPs, mainly against the Euro. News that Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrat (CDU) party in Germany had reached a breakthrough with the Social Democrats (SPD) on Friday to form a coalition lent support to the Euro.

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